Dirt on the Market (February 2012)

To read the entire newsletter, click here:  DOTM 2012 02 09


Subdivision Analysis: Villages of Purcellville 2011 09 15

Prices on the Rise

Last month there were no active listings in the Villages of Purcellville and there were three homes with pending contracts.  None of those three have settled yet (two are short sales) and their average list price is $318,267.  Whew, that’s low.  The good news though is that three new listings have entered the market with an average list price of $404,000 (none are distressed sales).  It seems that the community had to work through its short sales and now the market is back to a normal level.

There has been no change in the number of closings in Village of Purcellville since August (seven year-to-date closings).  The year-to-date median sold price is $349,000, down 11 percent from the 2010 median.  Sellers in 2011 had more modest expectations than in 2010; original list prices more accurately matched market conditions as seen in a much lower average price decrease.  But, seller contributions increased 43 percent to an average of about $5,000.  The time it takes to sell a home did improve though from an average of 99 days in 2010 to just 50 days through August 31, 2011.

Please call me if now is the time for you to sell your home.  Prices are back!  Let’s take advantage of low supply and high demand.


Western Loudoun County Analysis: 2011 08

What Housing Downturn?  Not Here!

According to the Metropolitan Regional Information Service (MRIS), 379 homes were sold in the Western Loudoun area (consisting of Middleburg, Purcellville, Round Hill, Hamilton, Lovettsville and Waterford) from January 1 to August 31, 2011.  That represents an 11.5 percent increase over the total sales volume in the first eight months of 2010 and a 24 percent increase over the sales volume over the same period in 2009.  This is especially encouraging since the 2010 market was artificially stimulated by the First Time Buyers Credit.  2011 did not enjoy that boost and is still outperforming 2010.

By contrast, January through August home sales in the entire county totaled 3,234 units, 5 percent behind the 2010 total at the same time and 9 percent behind the 2009 total.

The table below lists August sales and median sales prices by area. In the second half of the year, sales volume typically declines so it is not unexpected to see a 19 percent monthly decline in Western Loudoun in August.  The good news though is that sales in August beat the August 2010 total by 12.5 percent.  Purcellville continues to dominate Western Loudoun with 37 percent of total sales volume.

After a rare and dramatic decrease in July, the median sales price in Western Loudoun rebounded 26 percent from $335,000 to $422,500.  The year-to-date median sales price is $410,000 (equal to the 2010 median).  Compare that to $365,000 in Eastern Loudoun and $395,000 in Leesburg.  So far this year, 40 percent of home sales in Western Loudoun were priced between $200,000 and $399,999, 32 percent were priced $400,000 to $599,999 and 3 percent were priced above $1,000,000.

Other pertinent statistics include:

  • The average days on market spiked again in August, this time it reached 138 days, primarily due to the fact that five of the 54 total sales were on the market an especially long time - four took over a year to sell and one finally sold after more than three years.  However, five units also sold in less than 30 days, three in 30 to 59 days and 4 in 60 to 89 days;
  • Compare the 138 day average in August in Western Loudoun to 45 days in Eastern Loudoun and 47 days in Leesburg;
  • So far this year, the average days on market in Western Loudoun is 134 days, 9 percent higher than the 2010 average;
  • The average close price to average original list price ratio measures sellers’ willingness to negotiate price.  In August, the ratio fell to 90.5 percent from 91.9 percent in July.  The comparable ratio in Eastern Loudoun was 96.9 percent and in Leesburg it was 95.7 percent;
  • In August, 50 of the 54 Western Loudoun sales were single family detached homes with an average close price of $459,420.  Interestingly, four townhomes sold last month – two in Middleburg – with an unusually high average sold price of $404,999;
  • Perhaps a plentiful supply is the secret to Western Loudoun’s success this year.  One would normally think that the market is oversupplied when inventory levels are at 7.3 months but sales here are outperforming Eastern Loudoun and Leesburg which have much lower inventory levels (2.4 and 3.5 months respectively); and
  • The year-to-date share of short sales and foreclosures (24.8 percent share of total sales) in 2011 rose slightly in August.  Middleburg and Waterford have had only one distressed sale each so far this year explaining their low shares while the percentage exceeds 23 percent in the other local areas.

Spotlight on Hamilton

Through the end of August 2011,

  • 43 homes have sold in Hamilton this year, 16 percent higher than over the same period in 2010 and a remarkable 48 percent higher than the 2009 total;
  • The August median sales price was $465,000, 58 percent higher than the July median;
  • On average, the days on market for the homes sold in August was 87;
  • The close price to list price ratio was 91.4 percent in August, slightly better than the Western Loudoun average;
  • So far this year, 24 percent of Hamilton sales have been distressed;
  • The average close price for the four detached homes sold in August was $491,725; and
  • The supply of available inventory amounted to 5.4 months.

Fortunately, Western Loudoun’s very low median sales price in July remedied itself in August and sales volume continues to amaze. Even though houses take much longer to sell than elsewhere in the county, who would’ve thought Western Loudoun would be boasting such a good 2011 record?

Rosemary deButts, Realtor, is associated with Atoka Properties located in historic Purcellville. She has the Short Sales and Foreclosure Resource certification and is a Member, Institute of Residential Marketing. Rosemary earned her degree in Economics from Randolph-Macon Woman’s College and her MBA from Old Dominion University.  For more information on the Western Loudoun housing market and guidance in buying or selling a home, contact Rosemary today (rosemary@atokaproperties.com; 540-454-6792; www.housinganalyst.net).                        


Metro DC Housing Market Analysis: 2011 08

Sales Slump; Median Sales Prices Hang On

September 8, 2011

(Washington, DC) – So far this year, sales volume in the metropolitan Washington, DC existing home market is outperforming 2008, when the home sales bottomed out in this region, but cannot seem to build a head of steam.  The region consists of Loudoun, Montgomery and Prince George’s counties; the cities of Manassas, Manassas Park, and Prince William County (PWAR); Arlington and Fairfax counties, the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax, and Falls Church (NVAR); and the District of Columbia.  The table below lists the January through August sales volume for each area for every year since 2006.  Sales in the entire region are about 9 percent behind 2010 (recall though that the market was artificially stimulated during the first half of 2010 by the First Time Buyers Credit) but roughly 3 percent higher than at the end of August 2008.

Since 2006, sales volume in Loudoun County and NVAR have consistently declined, falling in 2011 by 21 percent  and 22 percent respectively behind the January through August volume in 2006.  The highest monthly volume is typically found in NVAR and Montgomery County;  these two areas account for 51 percent of the region’s total sales volume in 2011.  Both have seen volume declines in the last two years, strongly affecting the region totals.

  

The District and Virginia suburbs seem to be faring better than the Maryland suburbs.  Montgomery County’s January through August sales volume is off by 31 percent compared to 2006 and in Prince George’s County, sales volume has declined 37 percent.  The District has the best record with a decline compared to 2006 of only 17 percent.  The Virginia suburbs’ declines range from 21 percent in Loudoun County compared to sales in 2006 and 27 percent in PWAR.

With the exception of Prince George’s County, the 2011 January through August median sales price beats both the 2009 and 2010 medians at the same time of year everywhere else in the region.  The regional median of $330,000 is $85,000 less than it was at the end of August in 2006 but $20,000 higher than it was two years ago.  The largest percentage increase since last year has been in Loudoun where the year-to-date median is now $380,000.  NVAR leads the region with a median of $418,000 followed in second place by the District with a 2011 median of $399,900.

 

 It takes longer to sell existing homes this year compared to last throughout the region.  Last year the average days on market was 62 days in metro DC; this year the average is 71 days.  The largest leap was in PWAR where an extra two weeks was added to the expected time to sell this year.  It is interesting that even with the big jump, PWAR still has the lowest average in the region.  Prince George’s County’s average exceeded 100 days four of the last eight months resulting in the highest average in the region.

 

The year-to-date average close price to original list price ratio in the metro DC area was 94.3 percent (as of August 31st).  Every month this year, the ratio was slightly below the 2010 ratio so the year-to-date average from 2010 is not much different, 94.5 percent.  The highest year-to-date average is in PWAR (96 percent) and the lowest is in Prince George’s County (89.4 percent).

The share of distressed sales so far this year has declined in every area except in Prince George’s County where 63 percent of 2011 sales were either short sales or bank owned properties.  The lowest share is found in the District (14 percent) and it is below 30 percent in Loudoun, Montgomery and NVAR.

Given the disappointing sales in metro DC this year, it is encouraging to see that the monthly sales volume actually increased in August compared to July (albeit by only four units).  With the exception of Loudoun, the component areas followed the usual trend – steady monthly sales volume declines through February of the following year.  Since sales volume was alarmingly low in the second half of 2010 (following the expiration of the First Time Buyers Credit June 30th), it would be nice to see month-over-year increases through the end of 2011.  The District and the northern Virginia suburbs did their part but August sales in Montgomery and Prince George’s fell behind August 2010 totals (-5 and -12 percent respectively).

For more detail, please see Metro DC EH Analysis 2011 08.


Metro DC Close Price to List Price Ratio: 2011 07

Sellers in the District and NVAR Accepting Better Offers This Year

The graph below compares the 2010 average close price to original list price ratio in the metro DC region and its component jurisdictions to the 2011 year-do-date average through July.

This indicator reflects the willingness of sellers to accept low offers (if the ratio is below 95 percent) and/or the seller’s ability to accurately price their homes to match current market conditions (if the ratio exceeds 95 percent). Note that this analysis uses the original list price rather than the current list price at sale.

Sellers in the District of Columbia and the NVAR area (Arlington and Fairfax counties, Alexandria, Falls Church and Fairfax cities) have seen improvement in their average close price to original list price ratios this year compared to last.  Other areas in the region have declining averages this year.

PWAR (Prince William County and the cities of Manassas and Manassas Park) has the highest average 2011 ratio and is the only area that is above 95.9 percent.  On the other hand, Prince George’s County has not only seen the largest decrease since 2010 but it is also the only area with an average below 90 percent.

The ratio for  the entire region has declined only slightly with considerable help from the improvement in NVAR, which historically has the highest sales volume in the region.  The significant decline in Prince George’s County this year, which ranks third in 2011 sales volume behind second place Montgomery County, led the others in pulling the metro DC average down from 94.5 percent last year to 94.2 percent this year.


Subdivision Analysis: Villages of Purcellville 2011 08 16

No Active Listings = No Competition!

There are no active listings in the Villages of Purcellville.  Three homes have pending contracts with an average list price of $318,267.  Two of the three are short sales and the average days on market was 187 days.

Three homes sold in the Villages in July to bring the year-to-date total up to seven closings.  One sold for $412,000 while the other two sold for $330,000 and $349,000.  The year-to-date median sold price is $349,000, down 11 percent from the 2010 median.  Sellers have clearly moderated their expectations; the average price decrease has escalated dramatically this year compared to last.  Compounding the issue, seller contributions have increased 43 percent to an average of about $5,000.  The time it takes to sell a home did improve though from an average of 99 days in 2010 to just 50 days through July 31, 2011.

Please call me if now is the time for you to sell your home.  Be the only option for folks looking for the small town charm of Purcellville and the convenience of your highly desirable neighborhood.


Fredericksburg Area Housing Analysis: 2011 07

Fredericksburg Area Housing Market Analysis 2011 07


Loudoun County Housing Update: 2011 07

Share of Distressed Sales Plummets

MRIS, the multiple listing service handling Loudoun County existing home sales and records, began requiring agents to designate distressed sales (short sales and bank-owned properties) in the first quarter of 2009 at the height of the foreclosure crisis in this area.  At the time, 47 percent of Loudoun’s total home sales were distressed. Since then, the share of distressed sales has trended down and as of July 31, 2011, the share was only 20 percent here in Loudoun County.  The graph below summarizes the monthly share of distressed sales since May 2009 and the red line indicates the overall trend.

Compare the July result in Loudoun to other areas in the metropolitan DC region:

Metro DC Share of Distressed Sales (July 2011)

  • Loudoun = 20 percent
  • Fairfax County and city, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church = 13 percent
  • Prince William, Manassas, Manassas Park = 35 percent
  • Prince George’s County, MD = 57 percent
  • Montgomery County, MD = 18 percent
  • District of Columbia = 9 percent

Existing home sales activity typically begins to decline in Loudoun County in July. 2011 was no exception but it did not post as sharp a decline from June to July this year as it did last year.  Recall that the First Time Buyers Credit expired on June 30, 2010.  Sales in the third quarter of 2010 suffered mightily last year.  From June to July 2010, sales declined 30 percent from 577 units to 404.  This year the decline amounted to 21 percent, from 574 units to 452.  While that is good news, sales volume in July 2011 was the second lowest since 2006.  The county is on pace to end the year with 5 percent fewer sales than last year and has the lowest year-to-date volume in six years (at least).  There was a rare phenomenon in July…sales volume increased significantly in Western Loudoun (+12 percent) to reach a six year high.  Both Eastern Loudoun and Leesburg had the more typical declines (-23 and -3 percent respectively).

Prices though are a bright spot.  Over the last four consecutive months, the monthly median sales price in Loudoun has outpaced the median from the corresponding month in 2010.  It suffered a slight decline in July, from $400,000 in June to $389,000, but was 2 percent higher than the July 2010 median ($382,000).  It was wonderful that Western Loudoun volume increased but the problem was that the median sales price there dropped a full $100,000.  Since sales in Western Loudoun only accounted for 15 percent of the county’s total, its 23 percent median sales price decline resulted in an overall county median sales price decrease of only 3 percent.

Other July results include:

  • The average seller contribution was $3,656, about equal to the 2011 average of 3,681;
  • Average days on market was 52 days falling below the corresponding month in 2010 for the first time this year and the 2011 average is 24 percent higher than the 2010 average;
  • In 2011, 55 percent of sales were detached homes, 40 percent were attached homes and 5 percent were condominiums;
  • The average close price for detached homes was $523,882 in July;
  • The average close price for attached homes was $308,613;
  • The average close price for condominiums was $175,760;
  • The 2011 average attached home and condominium monthly sales were down 10 percent and 33 percent respectively from the 2010 monthly average;
  • Even though detached and attached prices were slightly higher in July than the 2010 average, the average condominium price was 5 percent lower than the 2010 average;
  • The number of active listings has stabilized in the 1,500 range over the last four months;
  • Pending sales declined 20 percent from June (377 vs. 473 in June and 488 last July);
  • For the fourth consecutive month, the average close price to original list price ratio exceeded 95 percent; and
  • The month’s supply of inventory amounted to 3.4 months for the entire county and was only 2.7 months in Eastern Loudoun (posting the fourth consecutive month less than 3 months).

For more detail on the Loudoun County housing market, please see:  Loudoun County Housing Analysis 2011 07


Metro DC Housing Market Analysis: 2011 07

Prince George’s County Continues to Struggle

August 9, 2011

(Washington, DC) – Prince George’s County is one of the components of the Metropolitan Washington, DC region (which also includes Montgomery County in Maryland, Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William counties in Virginia and the cities of Alexandria, Falls Church, Fairfax, Manassas and Manassas Park in Virginia and Washington, DC).  Since 2006, Prince George’s has generated 14 percent of the region’s total existing home sales volume.  Even though it has always been known as an affordable alternative to the more costly DC suburbs, Prince George’s County is an anomaly in this region; its housing market is in a steep and steady decline.

Consider the fact that the entire metro DC region has suffered a 21 percent decline in its year-to-date median sales price (January through July each year) since 2006. Bad enough, to be sure, but the comparable decline in Prince George’s County is a whopping 50 percent and still falling.  While the year-to-date median sales price has seen modest increases throughout the metro area in 2010 and 2011, Prince George’s County has had six consecutive years of median price decreases.

  • Metro DC Jan-Jul 2006 MSP = $415,000;  Metro DC Jan-Jul 2011 MSP = $330,000
  • PGC Jan-Jul 2006 MSP = $320,000; PGC Jan-Jul 2011 MSP = $160,000

 

So far this year, the median sales price in Prince George’s County has declined 7 percent whereas the median has increased 18 percent for the entire region and while the metro area had three decreases in the last seven months, Prince George’s has had five.

  • Metro DC Jan 2011 MSP = $299,900; Jul 2011 = $355,000
  • PGC Jan 2011 MSP = $171,900; Jul 2011 = $160,000

Compare the July average days on market in the metro DC area of 64 days to the comparable average in Prince George’s County – 104 days.  The average across the region declined 19 percent from January to July 2011 while it increased 17 percent in Prince George’s County.

  • Metro DC Avg Days on Market Jan 2011 = 79 days; Jul 2011 = 64 days
  • PGC Avg Days on Market Jan 2011 = 89 days; July 2011 = 104 days
  • Metro DC YTD Avg Days on Market 2011 = 72 days
  • PGC YTD Avg Days on Market 2011 = 98 days

The year-to-date average close price to original list price ratio in the metro DC area was 94.2 percent (as of July 31st) with five consecutive months above 94 percent.  In Prince George’s County, the year-to-date average is 89.3 percent and it’s had five consecutive months below 90 percent.

Another troubling aspect of the Prince George’s County market is its share of distressed sales (short sales and bank-owned properties).  The ratio is trending down but it is still strikingly high.  Roughly 23 percent of metro DC’s sales in July 2011 were distressed.  About 57 percent of Prince George’s sales were distressed in July.  Through the end of July, the 2011 average share of distressed sales in the metro area was 32 percent; it was 64 percent in Prince George’s County.  Further, for the last two consecutive months the metro DC share was less than 25 percent; it was above 55 percent in Prince George’s County since May 2010.

By contrast, the other component jurisdictions and realtor associations in the metro DC area have all seen year-to-date median sales price increases in 2011 compared to 2010; the 2011 average days on market is below 80 days elsewhere in the region; the 2011 average close price to original list price ratio exceeds 93 percent everywhere but Prince George’s County; and the 2011 average share of distressed sales exclusive of Prince George’s ranges from 15 percent in the District of Columbia to 43 percent in the Prince William realtor association (PWAR).

For more detail, please see Metro Dc Housing Analysis 2011 07


Western Loudoun County Analysis: 2011 07

Record Breaking Home Sales in July

According to the Metropolitan Regional Information Service (MRIS), the 67 home sales during July  in the Western Loudoun area (consisting of Middleburg, Purcellville, Round Hill, Hamilton, Lovettsville and Waterford) increased 12 percent from June and reached its highest monthly level in at least four years.  In fact, 2011 sales through July have outpaced total sales from January to July 2010 by 11 percent and beat the 2009 total through July by 23 percent.  In a typical year, the highest monthly sales in Western Loudoun are posted in June or July so we can expect monthly sales to decline through the rest of the year.

By contrast, home sales declined from 574 units in June to 452 in July for the entire county (-23 percent).

The table below lists July sales by area. Purcellville regained its dominance by posting 39 percent of the total sales last month in Western Loudoun in addition to a 53 percent increase over June and an 86 percent increase over last July.  Middleburg’s five sales in July represented a 400 percent increase over the one sale it had last July.

Although Western Loudoun posted stellar home sales in July, the median sales price took a huge hit.   The  median in both May and June was $435,000 in Western Loudoun.  In July, it dropped 23 percent and $100,000 to $335,000.  A whopping 51 percent of the increased number of sales in July were priced between $200,000 and $399,999 and only one home sold at a price higher than $1,000,000.  Compare that to June when only 33 percent of sales were priced in the $200,000 to $399,999 range and 3 homes sold for more than $1,000,000.   The good news though is that the year-to-date median sales price only decreased $5,000 from June to $410,000 which is equal to the 2010 median.  The median sales price more than doubled last month in Middleburg, the only Western Loudoun area to see a month-over-month increase.  Although not shown above and interestingly, the year-to-date median sales price in Waterford is $749,000 while it is only $550,000 in Middleburg.

Typically,  homes in Western Loudoun are on the market longer than those in other areas of the  county.  For example, the average days on market in Western Loudoun during July 2011 amounted to 87 days, down from a revised  114 days in June and 60 days last July. By contrast, homes sold in only 41 days on average in Eastern Loudoun during July  while the average was just 61 days in Leesburg.  Since January 2010, the lowest  average in Western Loudoun occurred last July (60 days) and the highest was in January 2010 (235 days).

Thirty homes (45 percent) sold in 30 days or less last month with an average close price of $350,480.  Compare that to 52 percent across the entire county with an average close price of $401,527.  There were three closings in Western Loudoun during July that took longer than a year to sell; the average close price of these units was $786,000.  They combined with three others in Eastern Loudoun and Leesburg to bring the county total to six units during July that were on the market over a year; the average close price of all six was $713,750.

Like sales totals, the days on market indicator varies significantly by individual market.  Lovettsville had the lowest July average with 43 days while the average in Middleburg was 208 days (one of the five was on the market 508 days).

The average close price to original list price ratio may reflect two things: sellers’ ability to accurately price their homes to match market conditions and/or their  willingness to negotiate price.  The ratio decreased in July to 91.9 percent from a revised 94.9 percent in June.  Western Loudoun normally has the lowest close price to original list price ratio; it was 96.5 percent in Eastern Loudoun and 94.8 percent in Leesburg last month.  Here in the west, the lowest ratio occurred in Hamilton (86.0 percent) and the highest was found in Waterford (94.2 percent).

In June, eight townhouses sold in Western Loudoun at an average price of $209,113.  The average price for the 59 detached homes sold last month was $426,211. Condominiums are not a factor in Western Loudoun.

The year-to-date share of short sales and foreclosures (24.6 percent distressed sales) in 2011 is the result of five consecutive months of declines from February to June.  Compare that 24.6 percent to this time last year when the year-to-date share of distressed sales was 34.9 percent.   Middleburg and Waterford have had only one distressed sale each so far this year explaining their low shares while the percentage exceeds 23 percent in the other local areas.

Even though the month’s supply of inventory reached its lowest point this year in July at 5.8 months, it is considerably higher in Western Loudoun than elsewhere in the county.  Note that the months of supply in Eastern Loudoun was 2.7 months during July and it was 4.0 months in Leesburg.  West of Leesburg, Waterford had the highest available inventory at 18.5 months and Round Hill had the lowest at 4.1 months of supply in July.

Spotlight on Round Hill

Through the end of July, 69 homes sold in Round Hill this year representing 21 percent of the Western Loudoun total.  That’s an average of about 10 homes per month which matches the 2010 pace.  The year-to-date median sales price was $370,000 at the end of July, -1 percent from the 2010 median of $373,000.   About 51 percent of Round Hill’s 2011 sales were priced between $200,000 and $399,999, another 25 percent were in the $400,000 to $599,999 range.  The average days on market in Round Hill was 115 days in June; it declined to 86 days in July.   The close price to original list price ratio was 93.9 percent in July, a far cry from 64.3 percent in February.  So far this year, 30 percent of Round Hill sales were distressed (one of the highest ratios in Western Loudoun) but the month’s supply of inventory, at only 4.1 months, is the lowest in the west and suggests it may be on the verge of being undersupplied.

Western Loudoun had a shocking number of sales in July, posting the highest monthly sales figure in years, something the county as a whole cannot claim.  However, the dramatic decline in the median sales price is troubling and hopefully a one-month anomoly.

Rosemary deButts, Realtor, is associated with Atoka Properties located in historic Purcellville. She has the Short Sales and Foreclosure Resource certification and is a Member, Institute of Residential Marketing. Rosemary earned her degree in Economics from Randolph-Macon Woman’s College and her MBA from Old Dominion University.  For more information on the Western Loudoun housing market and guidance in buying or selling a home, contact Rosemary today (rosemary@atokaproperties.com; 540-454-6792; www.housinganalyst.net).                        


Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.