Dirt on the Market (February 2012)

Posted: February 9, 2012 | Author: | Filed under: Dirt on the Market | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

To read the entire newsletter, click here:  DOTM 2012 02 09

Dirt on the Market (January 2012)

Posted: January 10, 2012 | Author: | Filed under: Dirt on the Market | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

 

For the January 2012 edition of “Dirt on the Market”, click:  DOTM 2012 01 10. 

Here’s an excerpt:

Western Loudoun County Analysis: 2011 08

Posted: September 12, 2011 | Author: | Filed under: Western Loudoun County Analysis | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

What Housing Downturn?  Not Here!

According to the Metropolitan Regional Information Service (MRIS), 379 homes were sold in the Western Loudoun area (consisting of Middleburg, Purcellville, Round Hill, Hamilton, Lovettsville and Waterford) from January 1 to August 31, 2011.  That represents an 11.5 percent increase over the total sales volume in the first eight months of 2010 and a 24 percent increase over the sales volume over the same period in 2009.  This is especially encouraging since the 2010 market was artificially stimulated by the First Time Buyers Credit.  2011 did not enjoy that boost and is still outperforming 2010.

By contrast, January through August home sales in the entire county totaled 3,234 units, 5 percent behind the 2010 total at the same time and 9 percent behind the 2009 total.

The table below lists August sales and median sales prices by area. In the second half of the year, sales volume typically declines so it is not unexpected to see a 19 percent monthly decline in Western Loudoun in August.  The good news though is that sales in August beat the August 2010 total by 12.5 percent.  Purcellville continues to dominate Western Loudoun with 37 percent of total sales volume.

After a rare and dramatic decrease in July, the median sales price in Western Loudoun rebounded 26 percent from $335,000 to $422,500.  The year-to-date median sales price is $410,000 (equal to the 2010 median).  Compare that to $365,000 in Eastern Loudoun and $395,000 in Leesburg.  So far this year, 40 percent of home sales in Western Loudoun were priced between $200,000 and $399,999, 32 percent were priced $400,000 to $599,999 and 3 percent were priced above $1,000,000.

Other pertinent statistics include:

  • The average days on market spiked again in August, this time it reached 138 days, primarily due to the fact that five of the 54 total sales were on the market an especially long time - four took over a year to sell and one finally sold after more than three years.  However, five units also sold in less than 30 days, three in 30 to 59 days and 4 in 60 to 89 days;
  • Compare the 138 day average in August in Western Loudoun to 45 days in Eastern Loudoun and 47 days in Leesburg;
  • So far this year, the average days on market in Western Loudoun is 134 days, 9 percent higher than the 2010 average;
  • The average close price to average original list price ratio measures sellers’ willingness to negotiate price.  In August, the ratio fell to 90.5 percent from 91.9 percent in July.  The comparable ratio in Eastern Loudoun was 96.9 percent and in Leesburg it was 95.7 percent;
  • In August, 50 of the 54 Western Loudoun sales were single family detached homes with an average close price of $459,420.  Interestingly, four townhomes sold last month – two in Middleburg – with an unusually high average sold price of $404,999;
  • Perhaps a plentiful supply is the secret to Western Loudoun’s success this year.  One would normally think that the market is oversupplied when inventory levels are at 7.3 months but sales here are outperforming Eastern Loudoun and Leesburg which have much lower inventory levels (2.4 and 3.5 months respectively); and
  • The year-to-date share of short sales and foreclosures (24.8 percent share of total sales) in 2011 rose slightly in August.  Middleburg and Waterford have had only one distressed sale each so far this year explaining their low shares while the percentage exceeds 23 percent in the other local areas.

Spotlight on Hamilton

Through the end of August 2011,

  • 43 homes have sold in Hamilton this year, 16 percent higher than over the same period in 2010 and a remarkable 48 percent higher than the 2009 total;
  • The August median sales price was $465,000, 58 percent higher than the July median;
  • On average, the days on market for the homes sold in August was 87;
  • The close price to list price ratio was 91.4 percent in August, slightly better than the Western Loudoun average;
  • So far this year, 24 percent of Hamilton sales have been distressed;
  • The average close price for the four detached homes sold in August was $491,725; and
  • The supply of available inventory amounted to 5.4 months.

Fortunately, Western Loudoun’s very low median sales price in July remedied itself in August and sales volume continues to amaze. Even though houses take much longer to sell than elsewhere in the county, who would’ve thought Western Loudoun would be boasting such a good 2011 record?

Rosemary deButts, Realtor, is associated with Atoka Properties located in historic Purcellville. She has the Short Sales and Foreclosure Resource certification and is a Member, Institute of Residential Marketing. Rosemary earned her degree in Economics from Randolph-Macon Woman’s College and her MBA from Old Dominion University.  For more information on the Western Loudoun housing market and guidance in buying or selling a home, contact Rosemary today (rosemary@atokaproperties.com; 540-454-6792; www.housinganalyst.net).                        

Loudoun County Housing Update: 2011 07

Posted: August 10, 2011 | Author: | Filed under: Loudoun County Housing Update | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

Share of Distressed Sales Plummets

MRIS, the multiple listing service handling Loudoun County existing home sales and records, began requiring agents to designate distressed sales (short sales and bank-owned properties) in the first quarter of 2009 at the height of the foreclosure crisis in this area.  At the time, 47 percent of Loudoun’s total home sales were distressed. Since then, the share of distressed sales has trended down and as of July 31, 2011, the share was only 20 percent here in Loudoun County.  The graph below summarizes the monthly share of distressed sales since May 2009 and the red line indicates the overall trend.

Compare the July result in Loudoun to other areas in the metropolitan DC region:

Metro DC Share of Distressed Sales (July 2011)

  • Loudoun = 20 percent
  • Fairfax County and city, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church = 13 percent
  • Prince William, Manassas, Manassas Park = 35 percent
  • Prince George’s County, MD = 57 percent
  • Montgomery County, MD = 18 percent
  • District of Columbia = 9 percent

Existing home sales activity typically begins to decline in Loudoun County in July. 2011 was no exception but it did not post as sharp a decline from June to July this year as it did last year.  Recall that the First Time Buyers Credit expired on June 30, 2010.  Sales in the third quarter of 2010 suffered mightily last year.  From June to July 2010, sales declined 30 percent from 577 units to 404.  This year the decline amounted to 21 percent, from 574 units to 452.  While that is good news, sales volume in July 2011 was the second lowest since 2006.  The county is on pace to end the year with 5 percent fewer sales than last year and has the lowest year-to-date volume in six years (at least).  There was a rare phenomenon in July…sales volume increased significantly in Western Loudoun (+12 percent) to reach a six year high.  Both Eastern Loudoun and Leesburg had the more typical declines (-23 and -3 percent respectively).

Prices though are a bright spot.  Over the last four consecutive months, the monthly median sales price in Loudoun has outpaced the median from the corresponding month in 2010.  It suffered a slight decline in July, from $400,000 in June to $389,000, but was 2 percent higher than the July 2010 median ($382,000).  It was wonderful that Western Loudoun volume increased but the problem was that the median sales price there dropped a full $100,000.  Since sales in Western Loudoun only accounted for 15 percent of the county’s total, its 23 percent median sales price decline resulted in an overall county median sales price decrease of only 3 percent.

Other July results include:

  • The average seller contribution was $3,656, about equal to the 2011 average of 3,681;
  • Average days on market was 52 days falling below the corresponding month in 2010 for the first time this year and the 2011 average is 24 percent higher than the 2010 average;
  • In 2011, 55 percent of sales were detached homes, 40 percent were attached homes and 5 percent were condominiums;
  • The average close price for detached homes was $523,882 in July;
  • The average close price for attached homes was $308,613;
  • The average close price for condominiums was $175,760;
  • The 2011 average attached home and condominium monthly sales were down 10 percent and 33 percent respectively from the 2010 monthly average;
  • Even though detached and attached prices were slightly higher in July than the 2010 average, the average condominium price was 5 percent lower than the 2010 average;
  • The number of active listings has stabilized in the 1,500 range over the last four months;
  • Pending sales declined 20 percent from June (377 vs. 473 in June and 488 last July);
  • For the fourth consecutive month, the average close price to original list price ratio exceeded 95 percent; and
  • The month’s supply of inventory amounted to 3.4 months for the entire county and was only 2.7 months in Eastern Loudoun (posting the fourth consecutive month less than 3 months).

For more detail on the Loudoun County housing market, please see:  Loudoun County Housing Analysis 2011 07

Month’s Supply of Inventory by Price Range 2011 06

Posted: July 28, 2011 | Author: | Filed under: Month's Supply of Inventory | Tags: , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

Not Enough Inventory for Homes Priced below $800,000

The cluster of columns on the far right of the graph below illustrates the month’s supply of inventory in Loudoun County for all price ranges.  A market is generally considered to be in equilibrium (there is enough supply to satisfy demand) when the MSI equals four to five months.  As you can see, Loudoun County is undersupplied in the eastern portion of the county and in Leesburg.  However, there is enough supply in western Loudoun by virtue of its 6.4 month’s of supply.

If we break this down by price range, we can see that all three areas are undersupplied at list prices below $200,000.  Further, eastern Loudoun and Leesburg are undersupplied at all prices below $800,000.  Western Loudoun has a healthy supply of inventory for homes priced $200,000 to $599,999 but becomes oversupplied with homes priced over $600,000 and it is severely oversupplied with homes priced in excess of $1,000,000 (only four homes priced $1,000,000 or more have sold in all of Loudoun County this year, all in Waterford).

As of July 7th, there were 20 active listings in eastern Loudoun, 69 in Leesburg and 77 in western Loudoun priced over $1,000,000.  Compare that to the 50 listings for homes priced below $200,000 (21 in eastern Loudoun, 23 in Leesburg and 6 in western Loudoun) at the same time.

This analysis confirms that Loudoun County continues to suffer from a shortage of supply that is severely constraining existing home sales.

The month’s supply of inventory is calculated by dividing the active listings in a particular area (snapshot of activity) by the sales in that area over the previous month.  The definition of active listings excludes rentals and pending sales (those with contingencies or contracts) in this analysis.  Close prices are used for the sales and current list prices are used for the active listings to group them by price range.

YTD Distressed Sales 2011 07 26

Posted: July 27, 2011 | Author: | Filed under: Foreclosures, Short Sales | Tags: , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

Share of Distressed Sales on the Decline in Loudoun County

The graph below illustrates the aggregate number of short sales and foreclosures (bank-owned properties) along with the percentage of total existing home sales that were distressed in Loudoun County this year.  Totals are also presented for the three areas within Loudoun County.  So far this year, less than 30 percent of the total existing home sales in Loudoun County were distressed.  By contrast, at the end of June in 2010, the share of distressed sales was 34 percent.  Unlike other counties in the metropolitan Washington, DC market, short sales outpace foreclosures; 68 percent of all distressed sales so far this year were short sales and the remaining 32 percent were bank-owned properties.

Short Sales 

Short sales in Loudoun accounted for 18 percent of total sales this year.  In Eastern Loudoun, 20 percent of 2011 sales were short sales; the same figure in Leesburg was 17 percent and it was 13 percent in Western Loudoun.

Foreclosures (Bank-Owned Properties)

There is a different dynamic for bank-owned properties.  So far this year, 11 percent of total sales were foreclosures in Loudoun County and in the subsets of  Eastern Loudoun and Leesburg as well.  The share in Western Loudoun was 12 percent with the total number of short sales about equal to the total number of foreclosures there.

Loudoun County Housing Update: 2011 06

Posted: July 8, 2011 | Author: | Filed under: Loudoun County Housing Update | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

Existing Homes Sales Strong in June

The existing home market in Loudoun County had a good June.  While unable to beat total sales in June 2010, the 553 preliminary sales represented a 31 percent gain over May and outpaced both June 2009 and June 2008.  The table below illustrates the total sales activity and median sales prices from January to June in the last six years.  Even though June had a strong sales rally, the year-to-date totals are still the lowest in at least six years.  By contrast, the 2011 median sales price in Loudoun County continues to advance, reaching the highest point since 2007.

 

 

 

 

 

Of the 2,287 units sold in 2011 to date, the largest share was priced between $200,000 and $399,999 (44 percent).  During May and June however, nineteen homes priced above $1,000,000 were sold (10 in May and 9 in June) – this is unprecedented in recent history.  High priced homes contributed to the $410,000 June median sales price representing a 5 percent increase over May 2011 and June 2010 as well.  Median prices advanced throughout the county.  Eastern Loudoun posted a median of $388,450 in June, up from the revised May median of $360,549.  In Leesburg, the median increased from $410,000 in May to $420,000 in June.  Western Loudoun, which typically posts the highest median sales price, was $440,000 in June, up from $435,000 in May.

As shown on the following graph and for the fifth consecutive month, the share of distressed sales (short sales and bank owned properties) declined in Loudoun County during June to reach the lowest point since the multiple listing service began requiring these designations in early 2009.  There were 78 short sales and 35 foreclosures among the preliminary 553 sales in June (20 percent).  Compare that to 28 percent in May and 30 percent last June.  In both Leesburg and Western Loudoun the share fell below 20 percent and in the historically troubled Eastern Loudoun portion of the county, the share has declined steadily over the last five consecutive months from 44.8 percent in January to 21.3 percent in June.

The average days on market indicator continued to tumble in June reaching the lowest point (53 days) since September 2010.  With a dearth of active listings (almost 200 fewer than at this time last year), the month’s supply of available inventory was only 2.8 months in June.  The market is onsidered to be in equilibrium (enough supply to meet demand) when the available inventory is four to five months.   The June inventory level indicates that Loudoun is currently significantly undersupplied.  This is especially evident in Eastern Loudoun with only a 2.1 month’s supply.  Leesburg is dangerously low as well at 2.9 months.  Western Loudoun posted its lowest inventory level this year in June at 6.4 months.

Representing 59 percent of total sales in June, 328 detached homes sold at an average close price of $543,936.  Townhomes accounted for 36 percent of all sales with an average close price of $314,828 and the average close price was $188,661 for the 28 condominiums (5 percent) that sold last month.

Purcellville based real estate consultant Rosemary deButts summarized, ”Total sales were unexpectedly robust in June but were still not strong enough to make up for the slow sales plaguing Loudoun during most of 2011.  However, Loudoun’s supply deficiency and declining distressed sales have contributed to an ever-improving median sales price.”###

FOR MORE DETAIL, SEE Loudoun County Housing Analysis 2011 06

Loudoun County Housing Update 2011 05

Posted: June 8, 2011 | Author: | Filed under: Loudoun County Housing Update | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

LDN EH Analysis 2011 05

Year-To-Date Sales Lowest in Six Years                                                                                                        

June 8, 2011

Contact:  Rosemary deButts, Realtor and MIRM

540/338-2212; rosemary@atokaproperties.com

For immediate release

(Purcellville, VA) – Through May 31, 2011, existing home sales in Loudoun County totaled 1,712 units thereby registering the lowest year-to-date total since at least 2006.  The graph below illustrates monthly sales totals from January through May for the last six years.  Before 2011, 2008 had the worst record with only 1,960 sales during the period.  Unfortunately, the total sales so far in 2011 fall 13 percent below the previous low point in 2008.

  • January-May 2011 vs. January-May 2006 = -25 percent
  • January-May 2011 vs. January-May 2007 = -25 percent
  • January-May 2011 vs. January-May 2008 = -13 percent
  • January-May 2011 vs. January-May 2009 = -11 percent
  • January-May 2011 vs. January-May 2010 = -14 percent

January to May Sales:  2006 – 2011

Preliminary sales totals for May in Loudoun fell 3 percent to 400 units from the revised 411 units in April.  Last year at this time, 515 units sold across the county.  Sales in Eastern Loudoun accounted for 62 percent (249 units) of the total; Leesburg sales represented 27 percent (107 units) of the total; and Western Loudoun generated the remaining 11 percent (44 units).

Of the 1,712 units sold in 2011 to date, the largest share was priced between $200,000 and $399,999 (45 percent).  During May however, eight homes priced above $1,000,000 were sold – the highest total in this price category since July 2010.

While sales were disappointing, the median sales price continued its upward trek, posting the fourth consecutive monthly increase.  The median was $380,000 in May, up 3 percent from April and 4 percent from last May.  Both Leesburg and Western Loudoun posted median sales prices ($400,000 and $435,000 respectively) that represented increases compared to April and last May.  Eastern Loudoun had a month-over-month increase in its median to $355,000 but it fell below the median last May of $365,000.  Sold prices must be tempered by seller subsidies; the 2011 average seller subsidy is $3,787, down from the 2010 average of $3,814 and $4,584, the 2009 average subsidy.

For the fourth consecutive month the share of distressed sales (short sales and foreclosures) declined in Loudoun County to reach the lowest point in two years.  There were 75 short sales and 34 foreclosures among the 400 sales in May (27.3 percent).  Compare that to 28.2 percent in April and 27.6 percent last May.  The share of distressed sales seems to fluctuate in Leesburg and Western Loudoun but in the historically troubled Eastern Loudoun portion of the county, the share has declined steadily over the last four consecutive months from 44.8 percent in January to 26.5 percent in May.

Another positive sign, the days on market indicator tumbled 20 percent from April (72 days) to May (58 days).  This was the third consecutive monthly decline.  However, every month this year has had a higher average than in the corresponding month in 2010.  The 2010 average
from January to May was 53 days; so far in 2011 the average is 73 days.

The average close price for detached homes in May was $539,150, the highest average since July 2010.  Townhouse prices averaged $302,180 and condominium prices averaged $169,573 during May.  The 2011 averages are flat for detached and attached product types (roughly $515,000 and $300,000 each) but condominium prices have declined from $182,000 in 2010 to $172,000 in 2011 (-6 percent).

If the month’s supply of inventory were between four and five months, the market would be in equilibrium (there would be enough supply to satisfy demand).  However, with only 1,504 active listings (as of June 7th), the supply is only 3.8 months.  This is an especially dire situation in
Eastern Loudoun where the inventory was only 2.8 months in May and only 3.0 months all year.  The supply equaled 3.7 months in Leesburg during May but in Western Loudoun, there was a nine-month supply of listings on the market.

Over the last six months of 2010, the close price to original list price ratio hovered at around 95 percent.  During the first quarter of 2011, the ratio plummeted.  For the last two months though, the ratio has again exceeded 95 percent in Loudoun.  In May, the ratio was 95.7
percent, the highest ratio since October 2010.

Purcellville based real estate consultant Rosemary deButts summarized, “My 2011 sales projections will have to be scaled back considerably.  The peak in monthly sales typically occurs in June every year but June 2011 sales would have to exceed 780 units to catch up to the 2008-2009 pace and 865 units to catch the 2010 pace.  The highest monthly sales total since 2006 occurred in June 2008 with 599 units.  Therefore, it is unlikely 2011 will recover its early losses by year end.”###

 

Month’s Supply of Inventory 2011 04

Posted: May 20, 2011 | Author: | Filed under: Month's Supply of Inventory | Tags: , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

Share of Distressed Sales 2011 04

Posted: May 19, 2011 | Author: | Filed under: Foreclosures, Short Sales | Tags: , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

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