Dirt on the Market (January 2012)

Posted: January 10, 2012 | Author: | Filed under: Dirt on the Market | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

 

For the January 2012 edition of “Dirt on the Market”, click:  DOTM 2012 01 10. 

Here’s an excerpt:

Western Loudoun County Analysis: 2011 08

Posted: September 12, 2011 | Author: | Filed under: Western Loudoun County Analysis | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

What Housing Downturn?  Not Here!

According to the Metropolitan Regional Information Service (MRIS), 379 homes were sold in the Western Loudoun area (consisting of Middleburg, Purcellville, Round Hill, Hamilton, Lovettsville and Waterford) from January 1 to August 31, 2011.  That represents an 11.5 percent increase over the total sales volume in the first eight months of 2010 and a 24 percent increase over the sales volume over the same period in 2009.  This is especially encouraging since the 2010 market was artificially stimulated by the First Time Buyers Credit.  2011 did not enjoy that boost and is still outperforming 2010.

By contrast, January through August home sales in the entire county totaled 3,234 units, 5 percent behind the 2010 total at the same time and 9 percent behind the 2009 total.

The table below lists August sales and median sales prices by area. In the second half of the year, sales volume typically declines so it is not unexpected to see a 19 percent monthly decline in Western Loudoun in August.  The good news though is that sales in August beat the August 2010 total by 12.5 percent.  Purcellville continues to dominate Western Loudoun with 37 percent of total sales volume.

After a rare and dramatic decrease in July, the median sales price in Western Loudoun rebounded 26 percent from $335,000 to $422,500.  The year-to-date median sales price is $410,000 (equal to the 2010 median).  Compare that to $365,000 in Eastern Loudoun and $395,000 in Leesburg.  So far this year, 40 percent of home sales in Western Loudoun were priced between $200,000 and $399,999, 32 percent were priced $400,000 to $599,999 and 3 percent were priced above $1,000,000.

Other pertinent statistics include:

  • The average days on market spiked again in August, this time it reached 138 days, primarily due to the fact that five of the 54 total sales were on the market an especially long time - four took over a year to sell and one finally sold after more than three years.  However, five units also sold in less than 30 days, three in 30 to 59 days and 4 in 60 to 89 days;
  • Compare the 138 day average in August in Western Loudoun to 45 days in Eastern Loudoun and 47 days in Leesburg;
  • So far this year, the average days on market in Western Loudoun is 134 days, 9 percent higher than the 2010 average;
  • The average close price to average original list price ratio measures sellers’ willingness to negotiate price.  In August, the ratio fell to 90.5 percent from 91.9 percent in July.  The comparable ratio in Eastern Loudoun was 96.9 percent and in Leesburg it was 95.7 percent;
  • In August, 50 of the 54 Western Loudoun sales were single family detached homes with an average close price of $459,420.  Interestingly, four townhomes sold last month – two in Middleburg – with an unusually high average sold price of $404,999;
  • Perhaps a plentiful supply is the secret to Western Loudoun’s success this year.  One would normally think that the market is oversupplied when inventory levels are at 7.3 months but sales here are outperforming Eastern Loudoun and Leesburg which have much lower inventory levels (2.4 and 3.5 months respectively); and
  • The year-to-date share of short sales and foreclosures (24.8 percent share of total sales) in 2011 rose slightly in August.  Middleburg and Waterford have had only one distressed sale each so far this year explaining their low shares while the percentage exceeds 23 percent in the other local areas.

Spotlight on Hamilton

Through the end of August 2011,

  • 43 homes have sold in Hamilton this year, 16 percent higher than over the same period in 2010 and a remarkable 48 percent higher than the 2009 total;
  • The August median sales price was $465,000, 58 percent higher than the July median;
  • On average, the days on market for the homes sold in August was 87;
  • The close price to list price ratio was 91.4 percent in August, slightly better than the Western Loudoun average;
  • So far this year, 24 percent of Hamilton sales have been distressed;
  • The average close price for the four detached homes sold in August was $491,725; and
  • The supply of available inventory amounted to 5.4 months.

Fortunately, Western Loudoun’s very low median sales price in July remedied itself in August and sales volume continues to amaze. Even though houses take much longer to sell than elsewhere in the county, who would’ve thought Western Loudoun would be boasting such a good 2011 record?

Rosemary deButts, Realtor, is associated with Atoka Properties located in historic Purcellville. She has the Short Sales and Foreclosure Resource certification and is a Member, Institute of Residential Marketing. Rosemary earned her degree in Economics from Randolph-Macon Woman’s College and her MBA from Old Dominion University.  For more information on the Western Loudoun housing market and guidance in buying or selling a home, contact Rosemary today (rosemary@atokaproperties.com; 540-454-6792; www.housinganalyst.net).                        

Metro DC Housing Market Analysis: 2011 08

Posted: September 8, 2011 | Author: | Filed under: Metro DC Housing Analysis | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

Sales Slump; Median Sales Prices Hang On

September 8, 2011

(Washington, DC) – So far this year, sales volume in the metropolitan Washington, DC existing home market is outperforming 2008, when the home sales bottomed out in this region, but cannot seem to build a head of steam.  The region consists of Loudoun, Montgomery and Prince George’s counties; the cities of Manassas, Manassas Park, and Prince William County (PWAR); Arlington and Fairfax counties, the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax, and Falls Church (NVAR); and the District of Columbia.  The table below lists the January through August sales volume for each area for every year since 2006.  Sales in the entire region are about 9 percent behind 2010 (recall though that the market was artificially stimulated during the first half of 2010 by the First Time Buyers Credit) but roughly 3 percent higher than at the end of August 2008.

Since 2006, sales volume in Loudoun County and NVAR have consistently declined, falling in 2011 by 21 percent  and 22 percent respectively behind the January through August volume in 2006.  The highest monthly volume is typically found in NVAR and Montgomery County;  these two areas account for 51 percent of the region’s total sales volume in 2011.  Both have seen volume declines in the last two years, strongly affecting the region totals.

  

The District and Virginia suburbs seem to be faring better than the Maryland suburbs.  Montgomery County’s January through August sales volume is off by 31 percent compared to 2006 and in Prince George’s County, sales volume has declined 37 percent.  The District has the best record with a decline compared to 2006 of only 17 percent.  The Virginia suburbs’ declines range from 21 percent in Loudoun County compared to sales in 2006 and 27 percent in PWAR.

With the exception of Prince George’s County, the 2011 January through August median sales price beats both the 2009 and 2010 medians at the same time of year everywhere else in the region.  The regional median of $330,000 is $85,000 less than it was at the end of August in 2006 but $20,000 higher than it was two years ago.  The largest percentage increase since last year has been in Loudoun where the year-to-date median is now $380,000.  NVAR leads the region with a median of $418,000 followed in second place by the District with a 2011 median of $399,900.

 

 It takes longer to sell existing homes this year compared to last throughout the region.  Last year the average days on market was 62 days in metro DC; this year the average is 71 days.  The largest leap was in PWAR where an extra two weeks was added to the expected time to sell this year.  It is interesting that even with the big jump, PWAR still has the lowest average in the region.  Prince George’s County’s average exceeded 100 days four of the last eight months resulting in the highest average in the region.

 

The year-to-date average close price to original list price ratio in the metro DC area was 94.3 percent (as of August 31st).  Every month this year, the ratio was slightly below the 2010 ratio so the year-to-date average from 2010 is not much different, 94.5 percent.  The highest year-to-date average is in PWAR (96 percent) and the lowest is in Prince George’s County (89.4 percent).

The share of distressed sales so far this year has declined in every area except in Prince George’s County where 63 percent of 2011 sales were either short sales or bank owned properties.  The lowest share is found in the District (14 percent) and it is below 30 percent in Loudoun, Montgomery and NVAR.

Given the disappointing sales in metro DC this year, it is encouraging to see that the monthly sales volume actually increased in August compared to July (albeit by only four units).  With the exception of Loudoun, the component areas followed the usual trend – steady monthly sales volume declines through February of the following year.  Since sales volume was alarmingly low in the second half of 2010 (following the expiration of the First Time Buyers Credit June 30th), it would be nice to see month-over-year increases through the end of 2011.  The District and the northern Virginia suburbs did their part but August sales in Montgomery and Prince George’s fell behind August 2010 totals (-5 and -12 percent respectively).

For more detail, please see Metro DC EH Analysis 2011 08.

Fredericksburg Area Housing Analysis: 2011 07

Posted: August 15, 2011 | Author: | Filed under: Fredericksburg Area Housing Analysis | Tags: , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

Fredericksburg Area Housing Market Analysis 2011 07

Loudoun County Housing Update: 2011 07

Posted: August 10, 2011 | Author: | Filed under: Loudoun County Housing Update | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

Share of Distressed Sales Plummets

MRIS, the multiple listing service handling Loudoun County existing home sales and records, began requiring agents to designate distressed sales (short sales and bank-owned properties) in the first quarter of 2009 at the height of the foreclosure crisis in this area.  At the time, 47 percent of Loudoun’s total home sales were distressed. Since then, the share of distressed sales has trended down and as of July 31, 2011, the share was only 20 percent here in Loudoun County.  The graph below summarizes the monthly share of distressed sales since May 2009 and the red line indicates the overall trend.

Compare the July result in Loudoun to other areas in the metropolitan DC region:

Metro DC Share of Distressed Sales (July 2011)

  • Loudoun = 20 percent
  • Fairfax County and city, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church = 13 percent
  • Prince William, Manassas, Manassas Park = 35 percent
  • Prince George’s County, MD = 57 percent
  • Montgomery County, MD = 18 percent
  • District of Columbia = 9 percent

Existing home sales activity typically begins to decline in Loudoun County in July. 2011 was no exception but it did not post as sharp a decline from June to July this year as it did last year.  Recall that the First Time Buyers Credit expired on June 30, 2010.  Sales in the third quarter of 2010 suffered mightily last year.  From June to July 2010, sales declined 30 percent from 577 units to 404.  This year the decline amounted to 21 percent, from 574 units to 452.  While that is good news, sales volume in July 2011 was the second lowest since 2006.  The county is on pace to end the year with 5 percent fewer sales than last year and has the lowest year-to-date volume in six years (at least).  There was a rare phenomenon in July…sales volume increased significantly in Western Loudoun (+12 percent) to reach a six year high.  Both Eastern Loudoun and Leesburg had the more typical declines (-23 and -3 percent respectively).

Prices though are a bright spot.  Over the last four consecutive months, the monthly median sales price in Loudoun has outpaced the median from the corresponding month in 2010.  It suffered a slight decline in July, from $400,000 in June to $389,000, but was 2 percent higher than the July 2010 median ($382,000).  It was wonderful that Western Loudoun volume increased but the problem was that the median sales price there dropped a full $100,000.  Since sales in Western Loudoun only accounted for 15 percent of the county’s total, its 23 percent median sales price decline resulted in an overall county median sales price decrease of only 3 percent.

Other July results include:

  • The average seller contribution was $3,656, about equal to the 2011 average of 3,681;
  • Average days on market was 52 days falling below the corresponding month in 2010 for the first time this year and the 2011 average is 24 percent higher than the 2010 average;
  • In 2011, 55 percent of sales were detached homes, 40 percent were attached homes and 5 percent were condominiums;
  • The average close price for detached homes was $523,882 in July;
  • The average close price for attached homes was $308,613;
  • The average close price for condominiums was $175,760;
  • The 2011 average attached home and condominium monthly sales were down 10 percent and 33 percent respectively from the 2010 monthly average;
  • Even though detached and attached prices were slightly higher in July than the 2010 average, the average condominium price was 5 percent lower than the 2010 average;
  • The number of active listings has stabilized in the 1,500 range over the last four months;
  • Pending sales declined 20 percent from June (377 vs. 473 in June and 488 last July);
  • For the fourth consecutive month, the average close price to original list price ratio exceeded 95 percent; and
  • The month’s supply of inventory amounted to 3.4 months for the entire county and was only 2.7 months in Eastern Loudoun (posting the fourth consecutive month less than 3 months).

For more detail on the Loudoun County housing market, please see:  Loudoun County Housing Analysis 2011 07

Metro DC Housing Market Analysis: 2011 07

Posted: August 9, 2011 | Author: | Filed under: Metro DC Housing Analysis | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

Prince George’s County Continues to Struggle

August 9, 2011

(Washington, DC) – Prince George’s County is one of the components of the Metropolitan Washington, DC region (which also includes Montgomery County in Maryland, Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William counties in Virginia and the cities of Alexandria, Falls Church, Fairfax, Manassas and Manassas Park in Virginia and Washington, DC).  Since 2006, Prince George’s has generated 14 percent of the region’s total existing home sales volume.  Even though it has always been known as an affordable alternative to the more costly DC suburbs, Prince George’s County is an anomaly in this region; its housing market is in a steep and steady decline.

Consider the fact that the entire metro DC region has suffered a 21 percent decline in its year-to-date median sales price (January through July each year) since 2006. Bad enough, to be sure, but the comparable decline in Prince George’s County is a whopping 50 percent and still falling.  While the year-to-date median sales price has seen modest increases throughout the metro area in 2010 and 2011, Prince George’s County has had six consecutive years of median price decreases.

  • Metro DC Jan-Jul 2006 MSP = $415,000;  Metro DC Jan-Jul 2011 MSP = $330,000
  • PGC Jan-Jul 2006 MSP = $320,000; PGC Jan-Jul 2011 MSP = $160,000

 

So far this year, the median sales price in Prince George’s County has declined 7 percent whereas the median has increased 18 percent for the entire region and while the metro area had three decreases in the last seven months, Prince George’s has had five.

  • Metro DC Jan 2011 MSP = $299,900; Jul 2011 = $355,000
  • PGC Jan 2011 MSP = $171,900; Jul 2011 = $160,000

Compare the July average days on market in the metro DC area of 64 days to the comparable average in Prince George’s County – 104 days.  The average across the region declined 19 percent from January to July 2011 while it increased 17 percent in Prince George’s County.

  • Metro DC Avg Days on Market Jan 2011 = 79 days; Jul 2011 = 64 days
  • PGC Avg Days on Market Jan 2011 = 89 days; July 2011 = 104 days
  • Metro DC YTD Avg Days on Market 2011 = 72 days
  • PGC YTD Avg Days on Market 2011 = 98 days

The year-to-date average close price to original list price ratio in the metro DC area was 94.2 percent (as of July 31st) with five consecutive months above 94 percent.  In Prince George’s County, the year-to-date average is 89.3 percent and it’s had five consecutive months below 90 percent.

Another troubling aspect of the Prince George’s County market is its share of distressed sales (short sales and bank-owned properties).  The ratio is trending down but it is still strikingly high.  Roughly 23 percent of metro DC’s sales in July 2011 were distressed.  About 57 percent of Prince George’s sales were distressed in July.  Through the end of July, the 2011 average share of distressed sales in the metro area was 32 percent; it was 64 percent in Prince George’s County.  Further, for the last two consecutive months the metro DC share was less than 25 percent; it was above 55 percent in Prince George’s County since May 2010.

By contrast, the other component jurisdictions and realtor associations in the metro DC area have all seen year-to-date median sales price increases in 2011 compared to 2010; the 2011 average days on market is below 80 days elsewhere in the region; the 2011 average close price to original list price ratio exceeds 93 percent everywhere but Prince George’s County; and the 2011 average share of distressed sales exclusive of Prince George’s ranges from 15 percent in the District of Columbia to 43 percent in the Prince William realtor association (PWAR).

For more detail, please see Metro Dc Housing Analysis 2011 07

Active Listings by Type 2011 06

Posted: July 28, 2011 | Author: | Filed under: Active Listings, Foreclosures, Short Sales | Tags: , , , , , | Leave a comment »

Distressed Listings on the Decline

Comparing active listings in January to those in June 2011 by type we see that the total number of active listings increased by 32 percent.  Over the same period, the actual number of listings for standard (non-distressed) sales also increased 44 percent.  However, the number of bank-owned listings declined from January to June by 27 percent.  Total short sale listings also declined by 16 percent.

In January, there were 216 active distressed listings for a 19 percent share of the total.  With only 175 distressed listings on the market (11 percent of total active listings) in June, it appears that Loudoun County has made significant strides in working through its supply of distressed homes foretelling a stronger housing market in the months to come.

 

 

Median Sales Price 2011 06

Posted: July 27, 2011 | Author: | Filed under: Foreclosures, Median Sales Prices, Short Sales | Tags: , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

Median Sales Prices on the Rise Despite Declining Prices for Distressed Sales

In Loudoun County in June 2011, the median sales price for standard sales was 5 percent higher than in June 2010.  This despite the 15 percent decline in the median sales price for bank-owned properties month-over-year and 17 percent for short sales.

A partial explanation is that the share of distressed sales (bank-owned properties and short sales) has steadily declined this year in Loudoun.  After five consecutive months of decreases, the share of distressed sales was only 20.4 percent of total sales in June 2011.  Compare that to the 30 percent share last June.

Average Days on Market by Sale Type 2011 06

Posted: July 27, 2011 | Author: | Filed under: Average Days on Market | Tags: , , , , | Leave a comment »

Standard Sales On Market Longer than Distressed Sales

Days on market is the number of days from the time a home is listed until a contract is accepted.  The average days on market reflects the time it took to sell every home sold in a particular period and is an indicator of housing demand.  A low average, say less than 30 days, is characteristic of an overheated market where demand exceeds supply.  An average above 90 days is indicative of a slow housing market.

The graph below illustrates the average days on market in June 2010 compared to June 2011 by sale type.  Remember that June 2010 marked the end of the First Time Buyer’s Credit program.  Even though prices for bank-owned and short sale properties have declined dramatically since last June (-15 percent month-over-year and -17 percent respectively)*, it took longer to sell them this year.  Although the median sales price for standard sales was 5 percent higher in June 2011 than it was in June 2010, the average days on market increased 23 percent since last June and, perhaps due to their higher prices, they take longer to sell than distressed listings.

 *See Median Sales Price 2011 06

YTD Distressed Sales 2011 07 26

Posted: July 27, 2011 | Author: | Filed under: Foreclosures, Short Sales | Tags: , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

Share of Distressed Sales on the Decline in Loudoun County

The graph below illustrates the aggregate number of short sales and foreclosures (bank-owned properties) along with the percentage of total existing home sales that were distressed in Loudoun County this year.  Totals are also presented for the three areas within Loudoun County.  So far this year, less than 30 percent of the total existing home sales in Loudoun County were distressed.  By contrast, at the end of June in 2010, the share of distressed sales was 34 percent.  Unlike other counties in the metropolitan Washington, DC market, short sales outpace foreclosures; 68 percent of all distressed sales so far this year were short sales and the remaining 32 percent were bank-owned properties.

Short Sales 

Short sales in Loudoun accounted for 18 percent of total sales this year.  In Eastern Loudoun, 20 percent of 2011 sales were short sales; the same figure in Leesburg was 17 percent and it was 13 percent in Western Loudoun.

Foreclosures (Bank-Owned Properties)

There is a different dynamic for bank-owned properties.  So far this year, 11 percent of total sales were foreclosures in Loudoun County and in the subsets of  Eastern Loudoun and Leesburg as well.  The share in Western Loudoun was 12 percent with the total number of short sales about equal to the total number of foreclosures there.

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