Median Sales Price 2011 06
Posted: July 27, 2011 Filed under: Foreclosures, Median Sales Prices, Short Sales | Tags: 2011, Foreclosures, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Price Changes, Short Sales Leave a comment »Median Sales Prices on the Rise Despite Declining Prices for Distressed Sales
In Loudoun County in June 2011, the median sales price for standard sales was 5 percent higher than in June 2010. This despite the 15 percent decline in the median sales price for bank-owned properties month-over-year and 17 percent for short sales.
A partial explanation is that the share of distressed sales (bank-owned properties and short sales) has steadily declined this year in Loudoun. After five consecutive months of decreases, the share of distressed sales was only 20.4 percent of total sales in June 2011. Compare that to the 30 percent share last June.
Average Days on Market by Sale Type 2011 06
Posted: July 27, 2011 Filed under: Average Days on Market | Tags: 2011, days on market, Foreclosures, Loudoun, Short Sales Leave a comment »Standard Sales On Market Longer than Distressed Sales
Days on market is the number of days from the time a home is listed until a contract is accepted. The average days on market reflects the time it took to sell every home sold in a particular period and is an indicator of housing demand. A low average, say less than 30 days, is characteristic of an overheated market where demand exceeds supply. An average above 90 days is indicative of a slow housing market.
The graph below illustrates the average days on market in June 2010 compared to June 2011 by sale type. Remember that June 2010 marked the end of the First Time Buyer’s Credit program. Even though prices for bank-owned and short sale properties have declined dramatically since last June (-15 percent month-over-year and -17 percent respectively)*, it took longer to sell them this year. Although the median sales price for standard sales was 5 percent higher in June 2011 than it was in June 2010, the average days on market increased 23 percent since last June and, perhaps due to their higher prices, they take longer to sell than distressed listings.
*See Median Sales Price 2011 06
YTD Distressed Sales 2011 07 26
Posted: July 27, 2011 Filed under: Foreclosures, Short Sales | Tags: 2011, eastern loudoun, Foreclosures, leesburg, Market Trends, Short Sales, western loudoun Leave a comment »
Share of Distressed Sales on the Decline in Loudoun County
The graph below illustrates the aggregate number of short sales and foreclosures (bank-owned properties) along with the percentage of total existing home sales that were distressed in Loudoun County this year. Totals are also presented for the three areas within Loudoun County. So far this year, less than 30 percent of the total existing home sales in Loudoun County were distressed. By contrast, at the end of June in 2010, the share of distressed sales was 34 percent. Unlike other counties in the metropolitan Washington, DC market, short sales outpace foreclosures; 68 percent of all distressed sales so far this year were short sales and the remaining 32 percent were bank-owned properties.
Short Sales
Short sales in Loudoun accounted for 18 percent of total sales this year. In Eastern Loudoun, 20 percent of 2011 sales were short sales; the same figure in Leesburg was 17 percent and it was 13 percent in Western Loudoun.
Foreclosures (Bank-Owned Properties)
There is a different dynamic for bank-owned properties. So far this year, 11 percent of total sales were foreclosures in Loudoun County and in the subsets of Eastern Loudoun and Leesburg as well. The share in Western Loudoun was 12 percent with the total number of short sales about equal to the total number of foreclosures there.
Western Loudoun County Analysis: 2011 06
Posted: July 11, 2011 Filed under: Western Loudoun County Analysis | Tags: 2011, Average Close Price, days on market, Foreclosures, Inventory, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Price Changes, Pricing, Sales, Short Sales, western loudoun Leave a comment »
Western Loudoun Sales and Prices Strong in June
According to the Metropolitan Regional Information Service (MRIS) and as of June 30, 2011, the year-to-date preliminary existing home sales (257 units) in the Western Loudoun area (consisting of Middleburg, Purcellville, Round Hill, Hamilton, Lovettsville and Waterford) exceeded the year-to-date total at this time in 2010 by four units and by 43 units over 2009. The highest monthly sales are typically recorded in June in this highly cyclical industry and June did not disappoint in Western Loudoun. 59 homes closed during June in Western Loudoun, up from a revised 46 in May and 57 during June 2010. This was the highest monthly total since at least January 2009. For the sake of comparison, the year-to-date sales totals in all of Loudoun County are still the lowest in at least six years.
The table below lists June sales by area. Sales in Round Hill outpaced Purcellville for the first time since March of 2009, doubling the number of sales there during May. Lovettsville posted a huge monthly gain, jumping from 3 sales in May to 10 in June.
As shown above, the June median sales price in the Western Loudoun area increased 1 percent to $440,000 from $435,000 in May. At this time last year, the median was only $415,000 (+6 percent). June’s increase boosted the year-to-date median to $415,000, reflecting the highest annual median since 2007. (The year-to-date median sales price for all of Loudoun County is also the highest in four years at $375,500.) Four homes closed in Waterford in June that ranged in price from $749,000 to $1,065,000 resulting in a monthly median sales price of $935,000 and a year-to-date median of$775,000 – clearly the area leader so far this year.
Year-to-date, 37 percent of the sales in Western Loudoun were priced between $200,000 and $399,000, matching the share in this price range during 2010. However, the percentage of homes sold at prices between $600,000 and $799,999 was 16 percent in 2011; it was only 13 percent in 2010.
Typically, homes in Western Loudoun are on the market longer than those in other areas of the county. For example, the average days on market in Western Loudoun during June 2011 amounted to 115 days, down from a revised 163 days in May and 107 days last June. By contrast, homes sold in only 41 days on average in Eastern Loudoun during June while the average was just 57 days in Leesburg. Since January 2010, the lowest average in Western Loudoun occurred last July (60 days) and the highest was in January 2010 (235 days). While 42 percent of the June closings were under contract within 30 days of listing, 10 percent took a year or longer to sell.
Like sales totals, the days on market indicator varies significantly by individual market. Middleburg and Purcellville tied for the lowest average with 51 days while the June average in Waterford was 248 days.
The average close price to original list price ratio may reflect two things: sellers’ ability to accurately price their homes to match market conditions and/or their willingness to negotiate price. The ratio increased significantly in June to 94.4 percent from a revised 86.6 percent in May. Western Loudoun normally has the lowest close price to original list price ratio; it was 97.0 percent in Eastern Loudoun and 96.8 percent in Leesburg last month. Here in the west, the lowest ratio occurred in Waterford (86.9 percent) and the highest was found in Hamilton (98.4 percent).
In June, four townhouses sold in Western Loudoun at an average price of $235,000. The average price for the 55 detached homes sold last month was $511,980. Condominiums are not a factor in Western Loudoun.
The year-to-date share of short sales and foreclosures (24.5 percent distressed sales) in 2011 is the product of two months below 19 percent (April and June). Compare that to this time last year when theyear-to-date share of distressed sales was 34.1 percent. Middleburg and Waterford have had only one distressed sale each so far this year explaining their low shares while the percentage exceeds 22 percent in the other local areas.
The month’s supply of inventory is also considerably higher in Western Loudoun than elsewhere in the county. As of July 7th, there was a 6.4 month’s supply of available inventory in Western Loudoun. While it is high, there was improvement; the month’s supply of inventory exceeded 8 months from January through May. Compare 6.4 months of supply to 2.1 months in Eastern Loudoun during June and 2.9 months in Leesburg. Middleburg had the highest available inventory at 21 months and Round Hill had the lowest at 3.1 months in June.
Spotlight on Purcellville
Purcellville is having a good year compared to its recent history. It typically has the highest sales volume in Western Loudoun and has posted 101 sales so far this year. By comparison, at the end of June 2010, Purcellville had only 95 total sales and at the same time in 2009, sales only totaled 82 units. Close prices in Purcellville ranged from $139,500 to $2,250,000 this year. Of the 101 2011 sales, 46 percent were priced between $400,000 and $599,000 and 30 percent were priced between $200,000 and $399,999. Four homes sold at prices exceeding $1,000,000 (three more than in Middleburg!). The median sales price in 2011 was $425,000 as of June 30th, +6 percent over the 2010 annual median. The June median was $458,000, 4 percent higher than the May median and 12 percent higher than the June 2010 median. Finally, about 28 percent of the sold homes this year were distressed.
Western Loudoun is having a banner year compared to Loudoun County as a whole. 2011 Sales have not suffered here in comparison to 2010 sales as they were expected to do in the absence of the First Time Buyer’s Credit this year. If historical trends hold though, sales will decline from 59 units beginning in July through the rest of the year. However, I predict we will end the year ahead of 2010 totals. Additionally, median sales prices have increased 7.5 percent since January, clearly indicating a healthy market.
Rosemary deButts, Realtor, has lived in Purcellville for almost twenty years and is associated with Atoka Properties, currently located near Bloom. She has the Short Sales and Foreclosure Resource certification and is a Member,
Institute of Residential Marketing. Rosemary earned her degree in Economics from Randolph-Macon Woman’s College and her MBA from Old Dominion University. She and her husband, Jimmy (a lifelong resident of Western Loudoun), have seven children, six of whom are Loudoun Valley High School alums. For more information on the Western Loudoun housing market and guidance in buying or selling a home, contact Rosemary today (rosemary@atokaproperties.com; 540-454-6792; www.housinganalyst.net).
Loudoun County Housing Update: 2011 06
Posted: July 8, 2011 Filed under: Loudoun County Housing Update | Tags: 2011, Average Close Price, days on market, eastern loudoun, Foreclosures, Inventory, leesburg, Listings, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Pending Listings, Price Changes, Pricing, Sales, Seller Subsidies, Short Sales, western loudoun Leave a comment »
Existing Homes Sales Strong in June
The existing home market in Loudoun County had a good June. While unable to beat total sales in June 2010, the 553 preliminary sales represented a 31 percent gain over May and outpaced both June 2009 and June 2008. The table below illustrates the total sales activity and median sales prices from January to June in the last six years. Even though June had a strong sales rally, the year-to-date totals are still the lowest in at least six years. By contrast, the 2011 median sales price in Loudoun County continues to advance, reaching the highest point since 2007.
Of the 2,287 units sold in 2011 to date, the largest share was priced between $200,000 and $399,999 (44 percent). During May and June however, nineteen homes priced above $1,000,000 were sold (10 in May and 9 in June) – this is unprecedented in recent history. High priced homes contributed to the $410,000 June median sales price representing a 5 percent increase over May 2011 and June 2010 as well. Median prices advanced throughout the county. Eastern Loudoun posted a median of $388,450 in June, up from the revised May median of $360,549. In Leesburg, the median increased from $410,000 in May to $420,000 in June. Western Loudoun, which typically posts the highest median sales price, was $440,000 in June, up from $435,000 in May.
As shown on the following graph and for the fifth consecutive month, the share of distressed sales (short sales and bank owned properties) declined in Loudoun County during June to reach the lowest point since the multiple listing service began requiring these designations in early 2009. There were 78 short sales and 35 foreclosures among the preliminary 553 sales in June (20 percent). Compare that to 28 percent in May and 30 percent last June. In both Leesburg and Western Loudoun the share fell below 20 percent and in the historically troubled Eastern Loudoun portion of the county, the share has declined steadily over the last five consecutive months from 44.8 percent in January to 21.3 percent in June.
The average days on market indicator continued to tumble in June reaching the lowest point (53 days) since September 2010. With a dearth of active listings (almost 200 fewer than at this time last year), the month’s supply of available inventory was only 2.8 months in June. The market is onsidered to be in equilibrium (enough supply to meet demand) when the available inventory is four to five months. The June inventory level indicates that Loudoun is currently significantly undersupplied. This is especially evident in Eastern Loudoun with only a 2.1 month’s supply. Leesburg is dangerously low as well at 2.9 months. Western Loudoun posted its lowest inventory level this year in June at 6.4 months.
Representing 59 percent of total sales in June, 328 detached homes sold at an average close price of $543,936. Townhomes accounted for 36 percent of all sales with an average close price of $314,828 and the average close price was $188,661 for the 28 condominiums (5 percent) that sold last month.
Purcellville based real estate consultant Rosemary deButts summarized, ”Total sales were unexpectedly robust in June but were still not strong enough to make up for the slow sales plaguing Loudoun during most of 2011. However, Loudoun’s supply deficiency and declining distressed sales have contributed to an ever-improving median sales price.”###
FOR MORE DETAIL, SEE Loudoun County Housing Analysis 2011 06
Subdivision Analysis: Potomac Station 2011 07 06
Posted: July 6, 2011 Filed under: Subdivision Analysis | Tags: 2011, Average Close Price, days on market, Foreclosures, leesburg, Listings, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Pending Listings, Potomac Station, Price Changes, Sales, Seller Subsidies, Short Sales Leave a comment »
Potomac Station Homes Selling at Faster Pace than Last Year
Detached Homes
(Leesburg,VA) – Twenty-five detached homes have sold in Potomac Station so far this year. Three of them were short sales and none were bank owned homes (12 percent shareof distressed sales vs. 19 percent in 2010). The annualized pace suggests roughly 60 homes will sell this year, 18 more than last year (+43 percent). This is remarkable since the First Time Buyer’s Credit is no longer offered like it was in the first half of 2010. The year-to-date median sales price for detached homes in Potomac Station was $465,000 (as of May 31st). These homes were originally priced 6 percent
higher than the homes sold last year but were eventually discounted an average of $31,000 before they were sold. The final result was an average close price not much different than it was in 2010. However, the average seller subsidy declined 44 percent compared to 2010 to $3,100 or so, which is a positive indicator. On the other hand though, the average number of days to sell increased 86 percent from 42 days in 2010 to 78 in 2011.
As of July 6, 2011, there were nine active listings and five pending sales in Potomac Station. Only one of the active listings and two of the pending sales were distressed, all short sales. The active listings have been on the market an average of 90 days and the pending sales were on the market 72 days, on average. The current list price is roughly $516,000 for both the active listings and pending sales (+3 percent vs. 2011 average list price at sale).
Townhouses
Confounding expectations like the detached homes, three townhouses sold in Potomac Station per month through May 31st (on average) and at this pace will exceed 2010 totals by four units this year (+12 percent). The year-to-date median sales price ($280,000) though was 8 percent behind the median in 2010. Original list prices and average close prices were 5 percent behind those in 2010 but the average seller subsidy declined by 24 percent. The lower prices apparently contributed to quicker sales, the average days on market in 2011 is only 27 days compared to
37 days in 2010 (-27 percent). The share of distressed sales (bank owned homes and short sales) though was consistent from 2010 to 2011 at about 60 percent.
Seven townhomes in Potomac Station have pending contracts as of July 6th. They were on the market an average of 34 days, have an average current list price of $304,239 and 57 percent of them are short sales (no bank owned properties). The nine active listings have been on the market for an average of 35 days, have an average current list price of $330,644 (14 percent higher than the 2011 average list price at sale), and only 33 percent are distressed. Interestingly, two active listings have had price increases since entering the market.
If you’d like to know what’s going on in your subdivision, call Rosemary deButts at Atoka Properties (540/338-7770, x301).
Share of Distressed Sales 2011 05
Posted: June 30, 2011 Filed under: Foreclosures, Median Sales Prices, Short Sales | Tags: 2011, Foreclosures, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Short Sales Leave a comment »
Share of Distressed Sales Hits New Low
For the third consecutive month, the share of distressed sales fell below 30 percent and posted the fourth consecutive monthly decline. It also reached the lowest point since distressed sales became a forced field in the listing service in April 2009. Of the 109 distressed sales last month, 75 were short sales and 34 were bank-owned properties.
Last year at this time, 27.6 percent of total sales were distressed, slightly higher than the May 2011 share of 27.3 percent. Leesburg had the highest share of distressed sales in April, 32 percent. Eastern Loudoun’s share amounted to 27 percent while 21 percent of the closings in Western Loudoun were short sales or bank-owned properties.
Compare the median sales price of distressed closings in Loudoun last month, $276,000, to the median for all sales types, $380,000 (-27 percent).
Highest Performing Housing Markets (Washington, DC = #1)
Posted: June 14, 2011 Filed under: Washington DC Home Price Index | Tags: 2011, Foreclosures, Loudoun, Market Trends, Washington Leave a comment »7 Highest-Performing Major Housing Markets
Several real estate markets are starting to show signs of improvement with home prices in the last quarter as the industry demonstrates more signs of stabilizing, according to Clear Capital’s latest monthly Home Data Index Market Report.
REO saturation rates have improved in the majority of the country’s largest markets. However, many areas are still battling year-over-year price declines. Clear Capital’s index reports that quarter-over-quarter home price declines were 2.3 percent in the latest quarter, which is less than half compared to the previous month.
“The latest market report results through May suggest that home prices are starting to ease back from the heavy declines seen over the winter,” says Alex Villacorta, director of research and analytics at Clear Capital. “We are still far away from the strong demand needed to fully turn things around for the housing market. However, it is clear from the initial spring sales data that prices are softening, suggesting stabilization in the market.”
The High Performers
Seven of the top 15 markets posted quarter-over-quarter property price gains in this month’s report, compared to none in last month’s, according to Clear Capital. Here are the seven highest-performing major real estate markets, according to the report.
1. Washington, D.C.-Arlington,
Va.-Alexandria, Va.
Quarter-to-quarter home
price change: 4.5%
Year-to-year price changes
(May 2010-May 2011): 4.9%
REO saturation:
17.5%
2. St. Louis, Mo.
Quarter-to-quarter home price change: 2.2%
Year-to-year price changes: -11.4%
REO saturation: 35.3%
3.
Pittsburgh, Pa.
Quarter-to-quarter home price
change: 1.6%
Year-to-year price changes:
0.3%
REO saturation: 10.9%
4. New York, N.Y.-Long Island, N.Y.-No. New Jersey,
N.J.
Quarter-to-quarter home price change:
1.5%
Year-to-year price changes:
1.4%
REO saturation: 9.6%
5. Virginia Beach, Va.-Norfolk, Va.-Newport News,
Va.
Quarter-to-quarter home price change:
1.4%
Year-to-year price changes:
-13.2%
REO saturation:
22.4%
6. Miami-Ft. Lauderdale-Miami Beach,
Fla.
Quarter-to-quarter home price change:
0.6%
Year-to-year price changes:
-5.2%
REO saturation:
39.6%
7. San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara,
Calif.
Quarter-to-quarter home price change:
0.5%
Year-to-year price changes:
-5%
REO saturation: 25%
Tthe lowest-performing market for the fifth straight month was Detroit-Warren-Livonia, Mich., with a 13.2 percent decrease in quarter-over-quarter home price change and a 58 percent REO saturation rate.
Source: “Clear Capital Reports Quarterly Home Price Decline Slows; Signs of Market Stability as Summer Approaches,” Clear Capital (June 9, 2011)
Subdivision Analysis: Villages of Purcellville 2011 05
Posted: June 13, 2011 Filed under: Subdivision Analysis | Tags: 2011, Average Close Price, days on market, Foreclosures, Listings, Loudoun, Market Trends, Pending Listings, Price Changes, Pricing, Sales, Short Sales, Villages of Purcellville, western loudoun Leave a comment »As of June 13, 2011, there were three active listings in the Villages of Purcellville community. One is a short sale that has been on the market for nearly a year; the price was reduced from $305,000 to $295,000 in late May. The average list price for the other two homes on the market is $416,900 and they’ve been active for an average of 68 days. Both of the pending sales are short sales. The average list price is $292,450 and they were on the market an average of 54 days.
Four homes have closed so far this year – one in January, one in February and two in April. One was a short sale with a close price of $390,000. Two non-distressed homes sold for $339,000 and one sold for $409,000. Therefore, the median sales price is $339,000 and the average close price is $369,250. These homes were active for an average of 68 days.
If now is the time for you to move, I would be honored to help you sell your home and/or answer any questions you may have about the real estate market here in Loudoun County.
Plus, I’ve moved to Atoka Properties in the Bloom Shopping Center. Please take a moment to visit me while you’re running errands here in town. Let’s chat about your house.
Look for my new column in The Purcellville Gazette: “The Dirt on the Market”
