Dirt on the Market (February 2012)
Posted: February 9, 2012 Filed under: Dirt on the Market | Tags: 2012, Average Close Price, days on market, eastern loudoun, Housing, leesburg, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Price Changes, Sales, Seller Subsidies, Short Sales, western loudoun Leave a comment »To read the entire newsletter, click here: DOTM 2012 02 09
Dirt on the Market (January 2012)
Posted: January 10, 2012 Filed under: Dirt on the Market | Tags: Loudoun, Housing, Median Sales Price, days on market, eastern loudoun, leesburg, western loudoun, Foreclosures, Short Sales, Market Trends, Price Changes, Tax Credit, Hirst Farm, Sales, 2011 Leave a comment »
For the January 2012 edition of “Dirt on the Market”, click: DOTM 2012 01 10.
Here’s an excerpt:
Metro DC Housing Market Analysis: 2011 08
Posted: September 8, 2011 Filed under: Metro DC Housing Analysis | Tags: 2011, Alexandria, Arlington County, Average Close Price, days on market, Fairfax, Foreclosures, Housing, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Montgomery County, NVAR, Prince George's County, Prince William County, Recovery, Sales, Short Sales, Washington Leave a comment »Sales Slump; Median Sales Prices Hang On
September 8, 2011
(Washington, DC) – So far this year, sales volume in the metropolitan Washington, DC existing home market is outperforming 2008, when the home sales bottomed out in this region, but cannot seem to build a head of steam. The region consists of Loudoun, Montgomery and Prince George’s counties; the cities of Manassas, Manassas Park, and Prince William County (PWAR); Arlington and Fairfax counties, the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax, and Falls Church (NVAR); and the District of Columbia. The table below lists the January through August sales volume for each area for every year since 2006. Sales in the entire region are about 9 percent behind 2010 (recall though that the market was artificially stimulated during the first half of 2010 by the First Time Buyers Credit) but roughly 3 percent higher than at the end of August 2008.
Since 2006, sales volume in Loudoun County and NVAR have consistently declined, falling in 2011 by 21 percent and 22 percent respectively behind the January through August volume in 2006. The highest monthly volume is typically found in NVAR and Montgomery County; these two areas account for 51 percent of the region’s total sales volume in 2011. Both have seen volume declines in the last two years, strongly affecting the region totals.
The District and Virginia suburbs seem to be faring better than the Maryland suburbs. Montgomery County’s January through August sales volume is off by 31 percent compared to 2006 and in Prince George’s County, sales volume has declined 37 percent. The District has the best record with a decline compared to 2006 of only 17 percent. The Virginia suburbs’ declines range from 21 percent in Loudoun County compared to sales in 2006 and 27 percent in PWAR.
With the exception of Prince George’s County, the 2011 January through August median sales price beats both the 2009 and 2010 medians at the same time of year everywhere else in the region. The regional median of $330,000 is $85,000 less than it was at the end of August in 2006 but $20,000 higher than it was two years ago. The largest percentage increase since last year has been in Loudoun where the year-to-date median is now $380,000. NVAR leads the region with a median of $418,000 followed in second place by the District with a 2011 median of $399,900.
It takes longer to sell existing homes this year compared to last throughout the region. Last year the average days on market was 62 days in metro DC; this year the average is 71 days. The largest leap was in PWAR where an extra two weeks was added to the expected time to sell this year. It is interesting that even with the big jump, PWAR still has the lowest average in the region. Prince George’s County’s average exceeded 100 days four of the last eight months resulting in the highest average in the region.
The share of distressed sales so far this year has declined in every area except in Prince George’s County where 63 percent of 2011 sales were either short sales or bank owned properties. The lowest share is found in the District (14 percent) and it is below 30 percent in Loudoun, Montgomery and NVAR.
Given the disappointing sales in metro DC this year, it is encouraging to see that the monthly sales volume actually increased in August compared to July (albeit by only four units). With the exception of Loudoun, the component areas followed the usual trend – steady monthly sales volume declines through February of the following year. Since sales volume was alarmingly low in the second half of 2010 (following the expiration of the First Time Buyers Credit June 30th), it would be nice to see month-over-year increases through the end of 2011. The District and the northern Virginia suburbs did their part but August sales in Montgomery and Prince George’s fell behind August 2010 totals (-5 and -12 percent respectively).
For more detail, please see Metro DC EH Analysis 2011 08.
Metro DC Housing Market Analysis: 2011 07
Posted: August 9, 2011 Filed under: Metro DC Housing Analysis | Tags: 2011, Alexandria, Arlington County, Average Close Price, days on market, Fairfax, Foreclosures, Housing, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Montgomery County, NVAR, Prince George's County, Prince William County, Recovery, Sales, Short Sales, Washington Leave a comment »Prince George’s County Continues to Struggle
August 9, 2011
(Washington, DC) – Prince George’s County is one of the components of the Metropolitan Washington, DC region (which also includes Montgomery County in Maryland, Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William counties in Virginia and the cities of Alexandria, Falls Church, Fairfax, Manassas and Manassas Park in Virginia and Washington, DC). Since 2006, Prince George’s has generated 14 percent of the region’s total existing home sales volume. Even though it has always been known as an affordable alternative to the more costly DC suburbs, Prince George’s County is an anomaly in this region; its housing market is in a steep and steady decline.
Consider the fact that the entire metro DC region has suffered a 21 percent decline in its year-to-date median sales price (January through July each year) since 2006. Bad enough, to be sure, but the comparable decline in Prince George’s County is a whopping 50 percent and still falling. While the year-to-date median sales price has seen modest increases throughout the metro area in 2010 and 2011, Prince George’s County has had six consecutive years of median price decreases.
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Metro DC Jan-Jul 2006 MSP = $415,000; Metro DC Jan-Jul 2011 MSP = $330,000
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PGC Jan-Jul 2006 MSP = $320,000; PGC Jan-Jul 2011 MSP = $160,000
So far this year, the median sales price in Prince George’s County has declined 7 percent whereas the median has increased 18 percent for the entire region and while the metro area had three decreases in the last seven months, Prince George’s has had five.
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Metro DC Jan 2011 MSP = $299,900; Jul 2011 = $355,000
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PGC Jan 2011 MSP = $171,900; Jul 2011 = $160,000
Compare the July average days on market in the metro DC area of 64 days to the comparable average in Prince George’s County – 104 days. The average across the region declined 19 percent from January to July 2011 while it increased 17 percent in Prince George’s County.
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Metro DC Avg Days on Market Jan 2011 = 79 days; Jul 2011 = 64 days
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PGC Avg Days on Market Jan 2011 = 89 days; July 2011 = 104 days
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Metro DC YTD Avg Days on Market 2011 = 72 days
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PGC YTD Avg Days on Market 2011 = 98 days
The year-to-date average close price to original list price ratio in the metro DC area was 94.2 percent (as of July 31st) with five consecutive months above 94 percent. In Prince George’s County, the year-to-date average is 89.3 percent and it’s had five consecutive months below 90 percent.
Another troubling aspect of the Prince George’s County market is its share of distressed sales (short sales and bank-owned properties). The ratio is trending down but it is still strikingly high. Roughly 23 percent of metro DC’s sales in July 2011 were distressed. About 57 percent of Prince George’s sales were distressed in July. Through the end of July, the 2011 average share of distressed sales in the metro area was 32 percent; it was 64 percent in Prince George’s County. Further, for the last two consecutive months the metro DC share was less than 25 percent; it was above 55 percent in Prince George’s County since May 2010.
By contrast, the other component jurisdictions and realtor associations in the metro DC area have all seen year-to-date median sales price increases in 2011 compared to 2010; the 2011 average days on market is below 80 days elsewhere in the region; the 2011 average close price to original list price ratio exceeds 93 percent everywhere but Prince George’s County; and the 2011 average share of distressed sales exclusive of Prince George’s ranges from 15 percent in the District of Columbia to 43 percent in the Prince William realtor association (PWAR).
For more detail, please see Metro Dc Housing Analysis 2011 07
Western Loudoun County Analysis 2011 05
Posted: June 8, 2011 Filed under: Western Loudoun County Analysis | Tags: 2011, Average Close Price, days on market, Foreclosures, Housing, Inventory, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Price Changes, Pricing, Sales, Short Sales, western loudoun Leave a comment »Western Loudoun Median Prices Highest Since 2007
The May median sales price in the Western Loudoun area (consisting of Middleburg, Purcellville, Round Hill, Hamilton, Lovettsville and Waterford) increased 5 percent to $435,000 from the revised $414,000 in April. At this time last year, the median was only $346,916 (+25 percent). Plus, at $414,000, the year-to-date median reflects the highest annual median since 2007.
Preliminary results indicate that a total of 44 homes were sold in Western Loudoun during May. That represented a 2 increase over the revised April total of 43 units and a 17 percent decline from last May when the housing market was artificially stimulated by the First Time Buyer’s Credit program. The graph below illustrates that sales are following normal cyclical patterns, albeit with slight variations from month to month in 2011. It also shows that May 2011 sales exceeded those in May 2009 but couldn’t reach the May 2010 level. In is interesting that the January to May total sales in 2011 (196 units) outpaced the same period in 2009 (164 units, +20 percent) and almost caught 2010 (198 units, -1 percent) regardless of the Credit. This is unprecedented in Loudoun County and the metropolitan Washington, DC markets; Loudoun County posted its lowest year-to-date total sales in the first five months of 2011 compared to the same period in every year since 2006 (at least).
Western Loudoun Existing Home
Sales: 2009, 2010 and YTD 2011
The following tables summarize sales and median sales price activity in Western Loudoun during May 2011 compared to the previous month (MOM) as well as the corresponding month in 2010 (MOY) by area. Sales in Purcellville again topped the list this month with 21 units while there were only three sales in Lovettsville and Waterford. The median sales prices can vary widely by area and by month; the median in Waterford was $775,000 in May but only $252,500 in April. Compare that to the median in Middleburg of $320,000, up from $305,000 in April.
Year-to-date, 43 percent of the sales in Western Loudoun were priced between $200,000 and $399,000. In all of 2010, 37 percent of sales were similarly priced.
As is typical, homes in Western Loudoun are on the market longer than those in other areas of the county. For example, the average days on market in Western Loudoun during May 2011 amounted to 156 days, up from a revised 124 days in April and only 86 days last May. For the sake of comparison, in Eastern Loudoun, homes sold in 39 days on average in May while the average was 61 days in Leesburg. Since January 2010, the lowest average in Western Loudoun occurred last July (60 days). Like sales totals, the days on market indicator varies significantly by individual market. In Hamilton, the average was 74 days in May but it was 508 days in Waterford.
The average close price to original list price ratio may reflect two things: sellers’ ability to accurately price their homes to match market conditions and/or their willingness to negotiate price. The ratio declined in May to 91.4 percent from 93.5 percent in April. Western Loudoun normally has the lowest close price to original list price ratio; it was 96.8 percent in Eastern Loudoun and 95.5 percent in Leesburg last month. Here in the west, the lowest ratio occurred in Waterford (82 percent) and the highest was found in Hamilton (98 percent).
In May, four townhouses sold at an average price of $254,975 down from $336,667 in April. The average price for the 40 detached homes sold last month was $509,126, also down from $561,540. Condominiums are not a factor in Western Loudoun.
The share of short sales and foreclosures (21 percent distressed sales) in May was an uptick from April (18 percent). However, this time last year, the share of distressed sales was 35.8 percent. There have been no distressed sales in Middleburg so far this year and only one short sale in Waterford. Compare that to the 35 percent of year-to-date sales in Lovettsville that were distressed (ten of twenty-eight).
The month’s supply of inventory is also considerably higher in Western Loudoun than elsewhere in the county. As of June 7th, there was a 9 month’s supply of available inventory in Western Loudoun. Compare that to 2.8 months in Eastern Loudoun and 3.7 months in Leesburg. Lovettsville had the highest available inventory at 21 months and Purcellville had the lowest at 6.2 months.
Spotlight on Middleburg
There is an interesting phenomenon brewing in Western Loudoun: none of the 16 year-to-date sales in Middleburg have exceeded the $1,000,000 close price barrier. In fact, only one Middleburg property has sold at a price between $800,000 and $999,999 so far this year. The
median sold price was only $320,000 in May and it’s only $530,000 for the entire year. What else is happening in Middleburg? The average days on market in May was 473 days (2 of the 4 sales exceeded 2 years, one was on the market almost one year and 1 sold in 45 days). And, based on active listings, there is a 17 month supply of available inventory in Middleburg.
Even with Middleburg’s strange results, Western Loudoun’s housing market is doing better than the county as a whole and even the larger region. As far as sales volume is concerned, 2011 is holding its ground compared to prior years. The median sales price saw a significant increase in May, reaching the highest point since August 2010 and the overall downward trend in the share of distressed homes in recent months is also welcome news indeed.
Rosemary deButts, Realtor, has lived in Purcellville for almost twenty years and is associated with Atoka Properties, currently located near Bloom. She has the Short Sales and Foreclosure Resource certification and is a Member, Institute of Residential Marketing. Rosemary earned her degree in Economics from Randolph-Macon Woman’s College and her MBA from Old Dominion University. She and her husband, Jimmy (a lifelong resident of Western Loudoun), have seven children, six of whom are Loudoun Valley High School alums. For more
information on the Western Loudoun housing market and guidance in buying or selling a home, contact Rosemary today (rosemary@atokaproperties.com; 540-454-6792; www.housinganalyst.net).
Loudoun County Housing Analysis 2011 03
Posted: April 13, 2011 Filed under: Loudoun County Housing Update | Tags: 2011, Average Close Price, days on market, eastern loudoun, Foreclosures, Housing, Inventory, leesburg, Listings, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Pending Listings, Price Changes, Pricing, Sales, Seller Subsidies, Short Sales, western loudoun Leave a comment »
Loudoun County Housing Analysis 2011 03
Loudoun’s Housing Market Limps into Spring
April 13, 2011
Contact: Rosemary deButts, REALTOR, MIRM 540/338-2212; rosemary@atokaproperties.com
For immediate release
(Purcellville, VA) – The housing market in Loudoun County was lethargic in March 2011. Even with slightly more active listings than at this time last year, sales which should skyrocket in March only advanced 21 percent compared to February 2011. Preliminary total unit sales advanced to 347 units from February’s revised 288 units. Sales in Eastern Loudoun accounted for an unusually low 60 percent of Loudoun’s total sales last month. About 50 percent of Loudoun’s sales so far this year were priced between $200,000 and $399,999.
For the second month, the median sales price advanced – .6% to $362,170 in March from $360,000 in February. The median in Eastern Loudoun was $349,900; it was $375,000 in Leesburg and $410,000 in Western Loudoun – all increases over February.
Average seller subsidies decreased 16 percent in March to $3,248. Compare that to the 2010 annual average of $3,814.
About 62 percent of the 111 total distressed sales in March were short sales, 38 percent were bank owned properties. The total share of distressed sales was 30 percent, down from 39 percent in February. The share in Eastern Loudoun was 34 percent; it was 26 percent in Leesburg and 24 percent in Western Loudoun.
The days on market indicator declined in March to 77 days, after reaching a two year high in February. The 2010 monthly average was only 54 days. Three units sold in March that had been on the market for over two years. Four of the nine sales in March that were on the market at least a year were in Western Loudoun.
The average close price for Loudoun’s detached homes last month was $503,952; it was $301,220 for attached units and $158,385 for condominiums. The 2011 average close prices for detached and attached units are 2-3 percent below the 2010 average but condominium prices are 7 percent below last year’s average.
Pending listings advanced 24 percent to 512 in March from 413 in February. This figure lags well behind last March though (probably as a result of the First Time Buyer’s Credit in 2010). The number of active listings grew 29 percent last month and is actually slighly higher than the figure from last March. The month’s supply of inventory was 4.2 months in March, up from 4.0 in Febuary and 3.1 last March. The available inventory in Eastern Loudoun was 3.4 months; it was 4.0 months in Leesburg and 8.9 months in Western Loudoun.
The average close price to original list price ratio recovered in Western Loudoun from 76.3 percent to 88.7 percent. Eastern Loudoun sellers garnered 95.7 percent of their asking price in March and in Leesburg, the ratio was 94.9 percent.
Purcellville based real estate consultant Rosemary deButts summarized, “I had higher hopes for sales activity this month. Although the figures are respectable, the market did not have the banner month we need to regain headway lost after the First Time Buyer’s Credit expired last summer.”###
Metro DC Housing Analysis 2011 03
Posted: April 12, 2011 Filed under: Metro DC Housing Analysis | Tags: Alexandria, Arlington County, Average Close Price, days on market, dc, Fairfax, Foreclosures, Housing, Inventory, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Montgomery County, NVAR, Price Changes, Pricing, Prince George's County, Prince William County, Sales, Seller Subsidies, Short Sales, Tax Credit, Washington Leave a comment »
Prince George’s County Can’t Catch a Break
April 12, 2011
(Washington, DC) – Spring has sprung along with the cherry blossoms in the nation’s capital but the housing market in nearby Prince George’s County had yet another rough month in March 2011. Of the six local markets, only Prince George’s posted a decline in its year-to-date median sales price. It fell from $164,000 as of February 28th to $159,900 as of March 31st. Compared to March 2010 when the median sales price was $190,000, the March 2011 median was only $155,000. Further, the average days on market increased 11 percent to 98 days in March. Prince George’s had the only close price to original list price ratio that declined and at 80.3 percent was also the lowest in the region. Prince George’s biggest problem though is the share of distressed homes sold each month. In March it was 71 percent, easily the highest share in metro Washington, DC.
Normal cyclical sales trends are at play – preliminary sales increased 36 percent across the region to 4,460 units in March compared to February’s revised total of 4,925. The advance was not enough though to reach the March 2010 level (when the First Time Buyer’s Credit was in full swing). The largest month-over-month percentage increase occurred in Washington, DC with a whopping 49 percent increase. The smallest was in Loudoun with 21 percent. For the first time this year, the median sales price exceeded the $300,000 bar at $305,000 measuring a healthy 6 percent increase over the February median. Montgomery County had the highest monthly increase last month to reach $331,900 (+11 percent). Washington, DC had the highest percentage increase compared to last March with $378,000 (+7 percent).
According to Loudoun-based real estate consultant Rosemary deButts, “As is often the case, February’s housing statistics were somewhat disappointing. While March is following normal cyclical patterns and had healthy increases, the sales pace and median sales prices seem to look more like 2009 than 2010 — before the First Time Buyer’s Credit artificially stimulated demand.” After nine months of consecutive increases, the average days on market indicator had a slight decline to 80 days in March. The 2011 average is also 80 days; compare that to 62 days in 2010. The low point was 51 days in May 2010. Loudoun had the highest month-over-month decrease to 77 days (-9 percent) while NVAR had the highest month-over-year increase to 71 days (+40 percent).
For the second consecutive month the close price to original list price ratio improved. It was 94 percent in March, 93.2 percent in February 2011 and 94.4 percent last March. Loudoun had the largest increase last month to reach 94.5 percent while Washington, DC had the largest increase compared to March 2010 to reach 93.2 percent. Average close prices advanced for all product types. The average for detached units was $462,242 in March; attached units posted an average of $324,659; and the average close price for condominiums was $275,028. The average close price for detached units in the Washington, DC market was $807,644, the result of 43 properties that sold for over $1,000,000 each last month. The highest sold price was $4,000,000.
The share of distressed sales (short sales and foreclosures) receded below 40 percent in March across the region after a sharp increase in February 2011. All local areas saw decreases in the share of distressed sales except for Prince George’s County and PWAR. The sub-market with the lowest share of distressed sales was Washington, DC at 15 percent. Rosemary deButts further commented, “March was the first month of the spring market. Disregarding 2010, sales were right on target compared to March sales in 2008 and 2009. While I don’t expect 2011 monthly sales to exceed the corresponding month in 2010 until the second half of the year, the market is behaving as expected.”
Western Loudoun Housing Overview 2011 02
Posted: March 24, 2011 Filed under: Western Loudoun County Analysis | Tags: 2011, Average Close Price, days on market, Foreclosures, Housing, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Price Changes, Pricing, Sales, Short Sales, western loudoun Leave a comment »
Western Loudoun Market Sales Stronger Than You Think
March 24, 2010 Contact: Rosemary deButts, REALTOR, MIRM
For immediate release 540/338-2212; rosemary@atokaproperties.com
www.housinganalyst.net
(Purcellville, VA) – Unlike Loudoun County as a whole, the western portion that includes Middleburg, Purcellville, Round Hill, Hamilton, Lovettsville and Waterford, saw increasing sales in the last two years. In 2008, Western Loudoun had 465 sales; that jumped to 492 in 2009 and to 510 in 2010. However, the annual median sales price fluctuated. It was $410,000 in 2008, $390,000 in 2009 and back to $410,000 in 2010. So far in 2011, 66 homes have sold in the area at a median sales price of $399,000.
Total sales in the first two months of 2011 outperformed sales in the same period last year. Preliminary results indicate that sales increased 6 percent compared to revised January figures and 21 percent compared to last February. It is interesting that the February 2010 blizzards didn’t significantly affect Western Loudoun sales as they did elsewhere.
The February median sales price in Western Loudoun declined to $390,000 from $409,000 in January (-5 percent). However, at this time last year, the median was $385,000 (+1 percent). Since January 2010, the lowest monthly median sales price was $346,916 (May 2010) and the highest was $445,000 (August 2010).
By individual market, sales in Round Hill topped the list with 12 units in February while there was only one sale in Waterford. The median sales prices vary widely by area; the median in Waterford was $620,000. Compare that to the median in Hamilton ($249,978).
To further exemplify the differences among the individual markets in Western Loudoun, consider the highest share of sales so far in 2011 by area:
- Middleburg: 25 percent of 2011 sales priced $600,000 to $799,999
- Purcellville: 50 percent of 2011 sales priced $400,000 to $599,999
- Round Hill: 35 percent of 2011 sales priced $200,000 to $399,999
- Hamilton: 29 percent of 2011 sales priced less than $200,000
- Lovettsville: 27 percent of 2011 sales priced $200,000 – $399,999
- Waterford: 33 percent of 2011 sales priced over $1,000,000.
According to Purcellville-based real estate consultant, Rosemary deButts, “The prevailing trend over the last five years has been away from higher-end properties. In 2007, only 1 percent of Western Loudoun sales had prices less than $200,000; by 2011 that share of total sales jumped to 11 percent. Conversely, the share of 2007 sales priced above $1,000,000 was 10 percent; the share is 4 percent in 2011.”
Houses in Western Loudoun typically take much longer to sell than those in other areas of the county. For example, the average days on market in Western Loudoun during February 2011 was 167 days, up from 136 days in January (+23 percent) and 109 last February (+54 percent). In Eastern Loudoun, homes sold in 70 days on average in February while the average was 87 days in Leesburg. Since January 2010, the lowest average in Western Loudoun occurred last July (60 days). However, it was flat or increased every month since then. Like sales totals, the days on market indicator also varies significantly by individual market. In Hamilton, the average was 68 days in February but it was 348 days in Middleburg.
The average close price to original list price ratio may reflect two things: the seller’s ability to accurately price their homes to match market conditions and/or their willingness to negotiate price. The ratio exceeded 90 percent in nine months of 2010 but was 88 percent in January and 76 percent in February 2011. Round Hill’s low average (64 percent) was the result of one property that was originally priced above $8,000,000 that sold in February for significantly less, $4,500,000. Hamilton posted the highest ratio, 98 percent.
Since January 2010, townhouse sales ranged from 4 percent to 20 percent of the total sales in Western Loudoun. Condominiums are not a factor. The average price for townhouses in February was $239,667 and the average price for detached homes was $609,337.
Short sales and foreclosures (distressed sales) still represent about one quarter of the total sales in Western Loudoun. After reaching a high of 50 percent of total sales in February 2010, the share of distressed sales fell to 22 percent last July but advanced to 38 percent in February 2011. There were no distressed sales in Middleburg or Waterford this year through the end of February while 75 percent of the year-to-date sales in Hamilton were distressed (three of four).
Rosemary deButts further commented, “The general perception is that Western Loudoun was a tougher sell than closer-in communities, especially during the housing downturn, but sales figures do not support that theory. There is every reason to expect 2011 annual sales to increase as they have over the last two years.” ###
Rosemary deButts is a REALTOR® associated with Atoka Properties in Purcellville, Virginia. She serves as the housing analyst for the Virginia Association of REALTORS® and is certified by the National Association of REALTORS® as a Short Sales and Foreclosure Resource. With a long career in the housing industry, she is also a Member, Institute of Residential Marketing (MIRM), a new homes marketing designation issued by the National Association of Home Builders. For more information and historical context on the Western Loudoun housing market, please visit www.housinganalyst.net. For an analysis of your home’s marketability, call Rosemary today.
Metro DC Housing Analysis Overview 2011 02
Posted: March 9, 2011 Filed under: Metro DC Housing Analysis | Tags: 2011, Alexandria, Arlington County, Average Close Price, days on market, dc, Fairfax, Foreclosures, Housing, Inventory, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Montgomery County, NVAR, Pricing, Prince George's County, Prince William County, Sales, Short Sales, Washington Leave a comment »Montgomery County Market Suffers in February
March 9, 2010 Contact: Rosemary deButts, REALTOR, MIRM
For immediate release 540/338-2212; rosemary@atokaproperties.com
(Washington, DC) – For unknown reasons, the housing market suffered mightily in Montgomery County last month. Total sales declined 6 percent from revised January totals to 533 units (the lowest monthly total sales figure since February 2008); the median sales price fell 11 percent to $300,000 (a five-year low); and the average days on market reached 93 days (the highest average since May 2009). Metro DC sales advanced slightly (3 percent) to 3,162 units across the region.
Only two local associations reported sales declines during February (Montgomery County and Washington, DC) while NVAR led the region with an 11 percent increase compared to January’s revised sales figures. Loudoun had a 7 percent increase. Prince George’s County had a 12 percent increase compared to last February.
For the third consecutive month, the metro DC median sales price declined in February. The February median was $290,000, down 3 percent from $299,900 in January. The median also posted the first month-over-year decline since October 2009 (-1 percent). Compare it to the 2010 annual median of $325,000. On the flip side, Loudoun’s median increased 11 percent to $360,000 but Prince George’s median declined 15 percent compared to its median in February 2010.
According to Loudoun-based real estate consultant Rosemary deButts, “After sustained month-over-year increases in the median sales price, decreases in the second and third largest sub-markets (Prince George’s and Montgomery counties) were enough to drag the rest of the region down. By contrast, the Virginia sub-markets and Washington, DC all posted 5 to 6 percent month-over-year median sales price increases last month.”
The average days on market indicator varied significantly across the region last month. PWAR had the lowest average (59 days) while Montgomery County had the highest. The region average rose (for the ninth consecutive month) by 2 percent from 80 days in January to 81 days in February, reaching the highest point since June 2009. Compare February’s 81 days to the 2010 average of 62 days.
Following two months of decreases, the average close price to original list price ratio improved to 93.2 percent in February from 92.9 percent in January. The ratio was 94.5 percent last February and the 2010 average was 94.3 percent. The lowest ratio, 90.2 percent, was found in Prince George’s County and the highest ratio was in PWAR (95.5 percent).
Single family detached prices declined for the second month in February while attached and condominium prices rose. The metro DC regional average price was $429,525 for detached homes, the lowest price in the last 13 months. Detached home prices averaged $648,857 in Washington, DC last month and $208,269 in Prince George’s County, a variance of 211 percent.
The share of distressed sales (short sales and foreclosures) exceeded 40 percent in February across the region for the first time since February 2010. The highest concentration of distressed sales was once again in Prince George’s County with 69 percent. The sub-market with the lowest share of distressed sales was Washington, DC at 23 percent.
Rosemary deButts further commented, “February’s statistics were consistent with typical cyclical trends in the metro DC area. Based on historical precedents, the spring market should begin its yearly ascent in March.”
Rosemary deButts is a consultant in the home building industry and a REALTOR® associated with Atoka Properties, a division of Middleburg Real Estate, in Purcellville, Virginia. She serves as the housing analyst for the Virginia Association of REALTORS®. Rosemary is certified by the National Association of REALTORS® as a Short Sales and Foreclosure Resource. With a long career in the housing industry, she is also a Member, Institute of Residential Marketing (MIRM), a prestigious new homes marketing designation issued by the National Association of Home Builders.
