Western Loudoun Housing Overview 2011 02

 

 

 

Western Loudoun Market Sales Stronger Than You Think                                                                     

March 24, 2010                                                             Contact:  Rosemary deButts, REALTOR, MIRM

For immediate release                                                   540/338-2212; rosemary@atokaproperties.com

www.housinganalyst.net

(Purcellville, VA) – Unlike Loudoun County as a whole, the western portion that includes Middleburg, Purcellville, Round Hill, Hamilton, Lovettsville and Waterford, saw increasing sales in the last two years.  In 2008, Western Loudoun had 465 sales; that jumped to 492 in 2009 and to 510 in 2010.  However, the annual median sales price fluctuated.  It was $410,000 in 2008, $390,000 in 2009 and back to $410,000 in 2010.  So far in 2011, 66 homes have sold in the area at a median sales price of $399,000. 

Total sales in the first two months of 2011 outperformed sales in the same period last year.  Preliminary results indicate that sales increased 6 percent compared to revised January figures and 21 percent compared to last February.  It is interesting that the February 2010 blizzards didn’t significantly affect Western Loudoun sales as they did elsewhere.

The February median sales price in Western Loudoun declined to $390,000 from $409,000 in January (-5 percent).  However, at this time last year, the median was $385,000 (+1 percent).  Since January 2010, the lowest monthly median sales price was $346,916 (May 2010) and the highest was $445,000 (August 2010).

By individual market, sales in Round Hill topped the list with 12 units in February while there was only one sale in Waterford.  The median sales prices vary widely by area; the median in Waterford was $620,000.  Compare that to the median in Hamilton ($249,978).

To further exemplify the differences among the individual markets in Western Loudoun, consider the highest share of sales so far in 2011 by area:

  • Middleburg: 25 percent of 2011 sales priced $600,000 to $799,999
  • Purcellville: 50 percent of 2011 sales priced $400,000 to $599,999
  • Round Hill: 35 percent of 2011 sales priced $200,000 to $399,999
  • Hamilton: 29 percent of 2011 sales priced less than $200,000
  • Lovettsville: 27 percent of 2011 sales priced $200,000 – $399,999
  • Waterford: 33 percent of 2011 sales priced over $1,000,000.

 

According to Purcellville-based real estate consultant, Rosemary deButts, “The prevailing trend over the last five years has been away from higher-end properties.  In 2007, only 1 percent of Western Loudoun sales had prices less than $200,000; by 2011 that share of total sales jumped to 11 percent.  Conversely, the share of 2007 sales priced above $1,000,000 was 10 percent; the share is 4 percent in 2011.”

Houses in Western Loudoun typically take much longer to sell than those in other areas of the county.  For example, the average days on market in Western Loudoun during February 2011 was 167 days, up from 136 days in January (+23 percent) and 109 last February (+54 percent).  In Eastern Loudoun, homes sold in 70 days on average in February while the average was 87 days in Leesburg.  Since January 2010, the lowest average in Western Loudoun occurred last July (60 days).  However, it was flat or increased every month since then.   Like sales totals, the days on market indicator also varies significantly by individual market.  In Hamilton, the average was 68 days in February but it was 348 days in Middleburg.

The average close price to original list price ratio may reflect two things: the seller’s ability to accurately price their homes to match market conditions and/or their willingness to negotiate price.  The ratio exceeded 90 percent in nine months of 2010 but was 88 percent in January and 76 percent in February 2011.  Round Hill’s low average (64 percent) was the result of one property that was originally priced above $8,000,000 that sold in February for significantly less, $4,500,000.  Hamilton posted the highest ratio, 98 percent.

Since January 2010, townhouse sales ranged from 4 percent to 20 percent of the total sales in Western Loudoun.  Condominiums are not a factor.  The average price for townhouses in February was $239,667 and the average price for detached homes was $609,337.

Short sales and foreclosures (distressed sales) still represent about one quarter of the total sales in Western Loudoun.  After reaching a high of 50 percent of total sales in February 2010, the share of distressed sales fell to 22 percent last July but advanced to 38 percent in February 2011.  There were no distressed sales in Middleburg or Waterford this year through the end of February while 75 percent of the year-to-date sales in Hamilton were distressed (three of four).

Rosemary deButts further commented, “The general perception is that Western Loudoun was a tougher sell than closer-in communities, especially during the housing downturn, but sales figures do not support that theory.  There is every reason to expect 2011 annual sales to increase as they have over the last two years.”  ###                                                                                                    

 

Rosemary deButts is a REALTOR® associated with Atoka Properties in Purcellville, Virginia.  She serves as the housing analyst for the Virginia Association of REALTORS® and is certified by the National Association of REALTORS® as a Short Sales and Foreclosure Resource.  With a long career in the housing industry, she is also a Member, Institute of Residential Marketing (MIRM), a new homes marketing designation issued by the National Association of Home Builders. For more information and historical context on the Western Loudoun housing market, please visit www.housinganalyst.netFor an analysis of your home’s marketability, call Rosemary today.                                             


Metro DC Housing Analysis Overview 2011 02

Montgomery County Market Suffers in February

March 9, 2010                                                                                    Contact: Rosemary deButts, REALTOR, MIRM

For immediate release                                                                  540/338-2212; rosemary@atokaproperties.com

(Washington, DC) – For unknown reasons, the housing market suffered mightily in Montgomery County last month.  Total sales declined 6 percent from revised January totals to 533 units (the lowest monthly total sales figure since February 2008); the median sales price fell 11 percent to $300,000 (a five-year low); and the average days on market reached 93 days (the highest average since May 2009).  Metro DC sales advanced slightly (3 percent) to 3,162 units across the region.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Only two local associations reported sales declines during February (Montgomery County and Washington, DC) while NVAR led the region with an 11 percent increase compared to January’s revised sales figures.  Loudoun had a 7 percent increase.  Prince George’s County had a 12 percent increase compared to last February.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   

For the third consecutive month, the metro DC median sales price declined in February.  The February median was $290,000, down 3 percent from $299,900 in January. The median also posted the first month-over-year decline since October 2009 (-1 percent).  Compare it to the 2010 annual median of $325,000.  On the flip side, Loudoun’s median increased 11 percent to $360,000 but Prince George’s median declined 15 percent compared to its median in February 2010.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

According to Loudoun-based real estate consultant Rosemary deButts, “After sustained month-over-year increases in the median sales price, decreases in the second and third largest sub-markets (Prince George’s and Montgomery counties) were enough to drag the rest of the region down.  By contrast, the Virginia sub-markets and Washington, DC all posted 5 to 6 percent month-over-year median sales price increases last month.”                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   

The average days on market indicator varied significantly across the region last month.  PWAR had the lowest average (59 days) while Montgomery County had the highest.  The region average rose (for the ninth consecutive month) by 2 percent from 80 days in January to 81 days in February, reaching the highest point since June 2009.  Compare February’s 81 days to the 2010 average of 62 days.                                                                                                                                                                      

Following two months of decreases, the average close price to original list price ratio improved to 93.2 percent in February from 92.9 percent in January.  The ratio was 94.5 percent last February and the 2010 average was 94.3 percent.  The lowest ratio, 90.2 percent, was found in Prince George’s County and the highest ratio was in PWAR (95.5 percent).                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Single family detached prices declined for the second month in February while attached and condominium prices rose.  The metro DC regional average price was $429,525 for detached homes, the lowest price in the last 13 months.  Detached home prices averaged $648,857 in Washington, DC last month and $208,269 in Prince George’s County, a variance of 211 percent.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

The share of distressed sales (short sales and foreclosures) exceeded 40 percent in February across the region for the first time since February 2010.  The highest concentration of distressed sales was once again in Prince George’s County with 69 percent.  The sub-market with the lowest share of distressed sales was Washington, DC at 23 percent.                                                                                                                                                                                                 

 Rosemary deButts further commented, “February’s statistics were consistent with typical cyclical trends in the metro DC area.  Based on historical precedents, the spring market should begin its yearly ascent in March.”                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

Rosemary deButts is a consultant in the home building industry and a REALTOR® associated with Atoka Properties, a division of Middleburg Real Estate, in Purcellville, Virginia.  She serves as the housing analyst for the Virginia Association of REALTORS®. Rosemary is certified by the National Association of REALTORS® as a Short Sales and Foreclosure Resource.  With a long career in the housing industry, she is also a Member, Institute of Residential Marketing (MIRM), a prestigious new homes marketing designation issued by the National Association of Home Builders.


Subdivision Analysis: Locust Grove 2011 02 11


Loudoun County Housing Market Overview 2011 01

Back to the Future:  2009…Again?

 

February 9, 2011

For immediate release

 

Contact:  Rosemary deButts, Housing Analyst

540/338-2212; rdebutts@1757realestate.com

(Leesburg, VA) – Loudoun County’s January 2011 housing market activity statistics felt more like early 2009.  Although the market was expected to slow last month given normal cyclical patterns and the lingering “first time buyer’s credit hangover”, going back to early 2009 levels was not expected.   For example, the days on market in January 2011 was 77 days, the highest since May 2009; the median sales price was $317,500, the lowest since April 2009; average prices for detached ($468,914) and attached ($275,209) units were at April or May 2009 levels; and the close price to original list price ratio (92.8 percent) equaled the ratio in May 2009.                                                                                                

Revised 2010 year-end sales totals showed a 10 percent decline compared to 2009.  However, the 2010 annual median sales price advanced 7 percent in 2010 compared to 2009.                                                                                                                                                                                                                           

Preliminary sales in January amounted to 247 units, 40 percent below the month before and a typical result in January.  They were, however, 6 percent behind January 2009 levels – although 6 percent was not as large as anticipated as we readjust to a market with no artificial stimulus from the government.  Of those 247 sales, 64 percent occurred in Eastern Loudoun; 23 percent were in Leesburg; and Western Loudoun had 13 percent of the total.  Throughout the county, 107 sales were either short sales or foreclosures (43 percent).  This was the first time the share of distressed sales exceeded 40 percent since February 2010.  Most of the increase happened in Eastern Loudoun where the share of distressed sales increased from 30 percent in December to 46 percent in January.                                                                                                                                                           

Days on market in Eastern Loudoun was respectable though at 59 days in January.  The average jumped to 92 days in Leesburg and to 136 days in Western Loudoun.                                                                                                                                                

The close price to original list price ratio was also strong in Eastern Loudoun in January at 94.9 percent.  Compare that to 91.3 percent in Leesburg and 87.8 percent in Western Loudoun.       

Loudoun County’s month’s supply of inventory reached 4.7 months in January, the highest level since October 2010.  However, it was 4 percent behind the inventory level for January 2010.  Available inventory remained low in Eastern Loudoun, only 3.5 months.  Inventory in Leesburg was 5.4 months and in Western Loudoun, the level was 9.7 months.                                                                                                                                                                                                  

The largest majority (54 percent) of homes sold in the $200,000 – $399,999 price range in January.                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

Rosemary deButts is a REALTOR® associated with 1757 Real Estate Company in Leesburg, Virginia and she serves as the housing analyst for the Virginia Association of REALTORS®.  She is certified by the National Association of REALTORS® as a Short Sales and Foreclosure Resource.  With a long career in the housing industry, she is also a Member, Institute of Residential Marketing (MIRM), a prestigious new homes marketing designation issued by the National Association of Home Builders.


Metro DC Housing Market Overview 2011 01

Typical January in the Housing Market:  Cold and Slow                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

February 8, 2010                                                                                                                              

For immediate release                                                                                                                                 

Contact:  Rosemary deButts, REALTOR, MIRM    540/338-2212; rdebutts@1757realestate.com

(Washington, DC) – Revised sales figures indicate that 2010 ended the year 6 percent below the total sold in 2009 in the metro DC area.  However, the year-to-date median sales price advanced 5 percent year-over-year.  January 2011 started off with flagging statistics compared to 2010 but it’s important to remember that the market was artificially stimulated at this time last year by the First Time Buyer’s Credit.                                                                                                                                                                                                          

Total sales in January 2011 failed to reach 3,000 units.  Compare January’s 2,963 sales to 4,413 in December and 3,417 in January 2010.  All of the associations in the metro area reported a decline in sales compared to last month; the smallest decline was in Washington, DC (-22 percent) and the largest decline was in Loudoun (-40 percent).  This is the normal pattern.  Compared to January of 2010, all but Washington, DC had sales declines.  PWAR had the sharpest drop, 24 percent.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

The median sales price in the metro DC area in January 2011, $299,900, was 7 percent behind December and 7 percent behind the median last January.  Medians ranged from $166,000 in Prince George’s County to $379,000 in Washington, DC.  All of the associations had monthly declines in median sales prices, ranging from -3 percent in Prince George’s to -11 percent in Loudoun.  Washington, DC’s median advanced 13 percent from last January but Prince George’s declined 10 percent.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

According to Loudoun-based real estate consultant Rosemary deButts, “The metro DC area posted the highest Case-Shiller® Home Price Index in November of the twenty largest markets in the country, for the 18th consecutive month.  This is a wonderful place to make real estate investments even if normal cyclical trends sometimes cloud the picture.”                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          

For example, the days on market indicator worsened in January.  At 79 days for the entire metro area, it was 12 percent higher on both a month-over-month and a month-over-year basis.  The average ranged from 59 days in PWAR to 92 days in Prince George’s County last month.  The Prince William area had the lowest average last month but the highest month-over-year increase (vs. 35 days in January 2010, +50 percent).  As is typical, all associations had month-over-month increases as winter settled in last month.                                                                                                                                                                                                            

The average close price to original list price ratio varied significantly by area, it was 89.8 percent in Prince George’s in January and 95.8 percent in PWAR.  The metro area average was 92.9 percent, down from 93.1 percent in December and 93.3 last January.                                                                                                                                                                                                             

Detached units accounted for 48 percent of the total sales in January with an average close price of $455,675.  This average close price was 10 percent below the average last month but 6 percent higher than the average last January.  Attached homes amounted to 34 percent of total sales and again, the average close price ($313,763) fell compared to last month but increased compared to last January (-6 percent and +7 percent respectively).  Condo sales represented 18 percent of the market.  Average close prices for condos, $254,827, declined 7 percent from December and 5 percent from January 2011.                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

There was an uptick in the share of distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) in January.  All areas had increases compared to last month but they all had decreases from last January.  The metro area share was 39.6 percent in January.  Compare that to 32.8 percent in December and a significant 45.5 percent last January.  The area with the lowest percentage of distressed sales was NVAR (28.6 percent) and the highest was in Prince George’s (66 percent).                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           

 Rosemary deButts further commented, “The market actually performed exactly as expected.  Activity in January is always slow and it was bound to be slower than last year given that the market is no longer artificially stimulated by the First Time Buyer’s Credit.” ###                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

Rosemary deButts is a consultant in the home building industry and a REALTOR® associated with 1757 Real Estate Company in Leesburg, Virginia.  She serves as the housing analyst for the Virginia Association of REALTORS®. Rosemary is certified by the National Association of REALTORS® as a Short Sales and Foreclosure Resource.  With a long career in the housing industry, she is also a Member, Institute of Residential Marketing (MIRM), a prestigious new homes marketing designation issued by the National Association of Home Builders.                                                                                            


Subdivision Analysis – Locust Grove 2011 01 12


Loudoun County Housing Analysis Overview 2010 12

Loudoun County Housing Analysis Overview 2010 12


Metro DC Housing Analysis Overview 2010 12

Metro DC Existing Home Sales Activity In December Stronger than Expected  

January 10, 2010                                                                                              

For immediate release                                                                  Contact:  Rosemary deButts, REALTOR, MIRM

                                                                                                                540/338-2212; rdebutts@1757realestate.com

(Washington, DC) – Following the usual pattern, preliminary total unit sales improved 5 percent in December compared to revised November totals across the Washington, DC metro area.  The increase followed seasonal monthly declines from July to November.  Prince George’s County posted the largest percentage increase (+13 percent) while sales in the District declined 6 percent from November.                                                                                                                                                                      

Preliminary year-to-date sales in the metro area totaled 55,814 units in 2010, 5 percent below the total in 2009.  The largest annual decline was in PWAR (-13 percent) and the largest percentage increase was in the District (+3 percent).  Annual sales totals were essentially unchanged from 2009 in Montgomery and Prince George’s counties (10,300 and 6,900 units respectively).                                                                   

Every month this year the median sales price for existing home sales in the DC area exceeded the median in the corresponding month in 2009.  Preliminary December results ($325,000) showed a slight 2 percent decrease from the revised November median.  The median sales price advanced $45,000 since January (+16 percent).  The year-to-date median sales price remained at $325,000 in December, 5 percent higher than the 2009 median.  All but two of the core Realtor associations in the metro area reported a month-over-month decrease in December’s median sales price with the exceptions of NVAR (+1.3 percent) and Montgomery County (+.8 percent).  The largest decrease was in PWAR (-6 percent).  Compared to December 2009, Prince George’s County had the only decline in its median sales price (-13 percent) while Montgomery County recorded the largest percentage increase, +12 percent.                                                                                                        

According to Virginia-based real estate consultant Rosemary deButts, “December’s existing home sales activity was a pleasant surprise after sharper than expected monthly declines following the expiration of the First Time Buyer’s Credit.  However, the resiliency of median sales prices during 2010 was the big story.”                                                                                                                                                                                                  

Because it is not unusual for the days on market indicators to rise as temperatures fall, the 9 percent increase in December was not unexpected.  For perspective, compare the average in December 2010 of 71 days to 84 days (Dec ’06), 102 days (Dec ’07), and 99 days (Dec ’08).  In fact, Prince George’s County’s average declined 18 percent in December compared to last December (89 vs. 108 days).                                              

The average close price to original list price ratio may reflect two things: sellers’ ability to accurately price their homes to match market conditions and/or their willingness to negotiate price.  Until recently (October), the 2010 ratio outperformed 2009 results but it fell to 93 percent in December with the highest ratio found in PWAR (96.1 percent) and the lowest found in Prince George’s (90.4 percent).  The lowest ratio throughout the region in the last four years occurred in February 2009 (89.8 percent).                                 

The average close price for detached homes in the metro area was $498,614 in December; it was $336,845 for attached homes and $275,531 for condominiums.  The highest prices are characteristically found in the District of Columbia for all three house types and the lowest prices can usually be found in Prince George’s County.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

The share of distressed sales (short sales and foreclosures) increased slightly to 33 percent in December but was 20 percent below the percentage of total distressed sales in December 2009.  Following the usual pattern, Washington, DC had the lowest share of distressed sales (16 percent) while Prince George’s had the highest share (63 percent).                                                                                                                               

Rosemary deButts further commented, “It is heartening to see the capital’s market post a strong December in advance of the upcoming winter months (i.e., the slow season).  We can only hope that the First Time Buyer’s Credit hangover was cured earlier than expected and that in 2011 we will enjoy a “normal” market in metro DC (one that is typically stronger than other large cities in the country).”  ###       

Rosemary deButts is a consultant in the home building industry and a REALTOR® associated with 1757 Real Estate Company in Leesburg, Virginia.  She serves as the housing analyst for the Virginia Association of REALTORS®. Rosemary is certified by the National Association of REALTORS® as a Short Sales and Foreclosure Resource.  With a long career in the housing industry, she is also a Member, Institute of Residential Marketing (MIRM), a prestigious new homes marketing designation issued by the National Association of Home Builders.                                                                                                                                                                                                            


Metro DC Housing Analysis Overview 2010 11


Metro DC Housing Analysis 2010 09

Metro DC Housing Market Undersupplied

October 10, 2010, 2010                                     

Contact:   Rosemary deButts, REALTOR, MIRM

540/338-2212; rosemarydebutts@verizon.net

www.housinganalyst.net                                                                                                                                                                   

(Washington, DC) – The metro Washington, DC market is assumed to be in equilibrium (there is enough supply to satisfy demand) when the month’s supply of inventory is between four and five months.  Based on the active listings as of October 8, 2010, the metro DC area had 3.8 months supply of available “for sale” inventory.  Although this is a highly volatile indictor, it suggests that the market was undersupplied and may partially explain the larger than expected decrease in total sales during September.  PWAR, which was particularly plagued by distressed sales over the last few years, had the lowest available supply at 2.4 months and was again significantly undersupplied.  Washington, DC had the highest supply in September, 4.9 months, well within established equilibrium parameters.

Following expected cyclical trends, existing home sales declined in the metropolitan Washington, DC area in September.  However, preliminary total sales figures declined to a larger degree than expected, -14.6 percent (4,090 units) compared to revised results from August.  September was the third consecutive month that total unit sales fell below the corresponding month in 2009 following four consecutive months of month-over-year increases. 

As of September, annualized 2010 sales in metro DC total 58,092 units, 2.1 percent below 2009 total sales.  New pending sales (listings marked “contract” this month and which may or may not close in the future) ended September at 2,484 units (-10.4 percent month-over-month).

Prices slipped but are still better than last year.  Again in September and for the ninth consecutive month, the median price for existing home sales in the metropolitan Washington, DC area ($322,000) exceeded the corresponding month in 2009.  Revised August results showed a 4.6 percent increase and the median in September was 2.2 percent higher than it was at this time last year.   The year-to-date median sales price declined to $319,778 in September, 4.7 percent higher than the 2009 median.  All of the core associations in the metro area reported a month-over-month decrease in September’s median sales price; the smallest decrease was in Loudoun County (-8.3 percent) and the largest was in the NVAR area (-19.9 percent).

According to Virginia-based real estate consultant Rosemary deButts, “Existing home sales activity in the third quarter of 2009 was much stronger than in 2010, a disturbing trend given the positive comparison in the first half of the year.  However, median sales prices and several other industry indicators remain higher than at any time last year.”    

For example, the year-to-date average days on market indicator was less than 65 days for the last six consecutive months; a feat reached only once in all of 2009.  Compare the 2010 average of 60 days to the 2009 average of 85 days.  The highest average was found in Prince George’s County (90 days) and the lowest was in PWAR (41 days) during September.  In fact, Prince George’s has had the highest average every month this year.  Conversely, PWAR has consistently had the lowest.   

The average close price to original list price ratio may reflect two things: the seller’s ability to accurately price their homes to match market conditions and/or their willingness to negotiate price.  The ratio consistently exceeded 94 percent since February in metro DC.  Compare that to the four year low of 89.8 percent in February 2009.  PWAR posted the highest ratio in September of 96.2 percent while the lowest ratio was found in Prince George’s County (91.1 percent).

Short sales and foreclosures (distressed sales) still represent about one third of the total sales in the nation’s capital.  After reaching a high of 45.5 percent of total sales in January 2010, the share of distressed was 32.4 percent in September, the sixth consecutive month below or equal to 35 percent.  Again in September, Prince George’s County had the highest share of distressed sales, 60.4 percent.  Washington, DC had the lowest, 17.5 percent.

Rosemary deButts further commented, “The decline in sales is a direct result of a lack of available inventory in metro DC.  Other housing market indicators suggest a stable market but the strong recovery promised in the first half of the year has been stifled by low supply in recent months.”  ###                                                                                                                                                                                                              

For more information and historical context, please visit www.housinganalyst.net.  In this analysis, data for Loudoun, Montgomery and Prince George’s counties as well as Washington, DC are grouped individually.  Data for Arlington and Fairfax counties and the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church are grouped as the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors (NVAR).  Likewise, data for Prince William County along with the cities of Manassas and Manassas Park constitute the Prince William Association of Realtors (PWAR).

 

Rosemary deButts is a consultant in the home building industry and a REALTOR® associated with 1757 Real Estate Company in Leesburg, Virginia.  She serves as the housing analyst for the Virginia Association of REALTORS® and is certified by the National Association of REALTORS® as a Short Sales and Foreclosure Resource.  With a long career in the housing industry, she is also a Member, Institute of Residential Marketing (MIRM), a prestigious new homes marketing designation issued by the National Association of Home Builders.                                                                                                                                                                                                   


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