Sister*Stats (April 2012)
Posted: April 12, 2012 Filed under: Sister*Stats, Uncategorized | Tags: 2012, Alexandria, Arlington County, case-shiller, days on market, Fairfax, Foreclosures, Housing, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Montgomery County, NVAR, Price Changes, Prince George's County, Prince William County, Sales, Short Sales, Washington Leave a comment »
The Dirt on the Market (April 2012)
Posted: April 9, 2012 Filed under: Dirt on the Market | Tags: 2011, 2012, Average Close Price, days on market, eastern loudoun, leesburg, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Price Changes, Sales, Seller Subsidies, Short Sales, western loudoun Leave a comment »
Sister*Stats (March 2012)
Posted: March 16, 2012 Filed under: Sister*Stats | Tags: case-shiller, Foreclosures, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Montgomery County, NVAR, Prince George's County, Prince William County, Sales, Short Sales, Washington, western loudoun Leave a comment »
The Dirt on the Market (March 2012)
Posted: March 8, 2012 Filed under: Dirt on the Market | Tags: 2012, Average Close Price, days on market, eastern loudoun, Foreclosures, Housing, Inventory, leesburg, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Price Changes, Pricing, Sales, Seller Subsidies, Short Sales, western loudoun Leave a comment »
Dirt on the Market (February 2012)
Posted: February 9, 2012 Filed under: Dirt on the Market | Tags: 2012, Average Close Price, days on market, eastern loudoun, Housing, leesburg, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Price Changes, Sales, Seller Subsidies, Short Sales, western loudoun Leave a comment »To read the entire newsletter, click here: DOTM 2012 02 09
Dirt on the Market (January 2012)
Posted: January 10, 2012 Filed under: Dirt on the Market | Tags: 2011, days on market, eastern loudoun, Foreclosures, Hirst Farm, Housing, leesburg, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Price Changes, Sales, Short Sales, Tax Credit, western loudoun Leave a comment »
For the January 2012 edition of “Dirt on the Market”, click: DOTM 2012 01 10.
Here’s an excerpt:
Subdivision Analysis: Villages of Purcellville 2011 09 15
Posted: September 14, 2011 Filed under: Subdivision Analysis | Tags: 2011, Average Close Price, days on market, Inventory, Listings, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Pending Listings, Price Changes, Pricing, Sales, Seller Subsidies, Short Sales, Villages of Purcellville, western loudoun 2 Comments »Prices on the Rise
Last month there were no active listings in the Villages of Purcellville and there were three homes with pending contracts. None of those three have settled yet (two are short sales) and their average list price is $318,267. Whew, that’s low. The good news though is that three new listings have entered the market with an average list price of $404,000 (none are distressed sales). It seems that the community had to work through its short sales and now the market is back to a normal level.
There has been no change in the number of closings in Village of Purcellville since August (seven year-to-date closings). The year-to-date median sold price is $349,000, down 11 percent from the 2010 median. Sellers in 2011 had more modest expectations than in 2010; original list prices more accurately matched market conditions as seen in a much lower average price decrease. But, seller contributions increased 43 percent to an average of about $5,000. The time it takes to sell a home did improve though from an average of 99 days in 2010 to just 50 days through August 31, 2011.
Please call me if now is the time for you to sell your home. Prices are back! Let’s take advantage of low supply and high demand.
Metro DC Housing Market Analysis: 2011 08
Posted: September 8, 2011 Filed under: Metro DC Housing Analysis | Tags: 2011, Alexandria, Arlington County, Average Close Price, days on market, Fairfax, Foreclosures, Housing, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Montgomery County, NVAR, Prince George's County, Prince William County, Recovery, Sales, Short Sales, Washington Leave a comment »Sales Slump; Median Sales Prices Hang On
September 8, 2011
(Washington, DC) – So far this year, sales volume in the metropolitan Washington, DC existing home market is outperforming 2008, when the home sales bottomed out in this region, but cannot seem to build a head of steam. The region consists of Loudoun, Montgomery and Prince George’s counties; the cities of Manassas, Manassas Park, and Prince William County (PWAR); Arlington and Fairfax counties, the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax, and Falls Church (NVAR); and the District of Columbia. The table below lists the January through August sales volume for each area for every year since 2006. Sales in the entire region are about 9 percent behind 2010 (recall though that the market was artificially stimulated during the first half of 2010 by the First Time Buyers Credit) but roughly 3 percent higher than at the end of August 2008.
Since 2006, sales volume in Loudoun County and NVAR have consistently declined, falling in 2011 by 21 percent and 22 percent respectively behind the January through August volume in 2006. The highest monthly volume is typically found in NVAR and Montgomery County; these two areas account for 51 percent of the region’s total sales volume in 2011. Both have seen volume declines in the last two years, strongly affecting the region totals.
The District and Virginia suburbs seem to be faring better than the Maryland suburbs. Montgomery County’s January through August sales volume is off by 31 percent compared to 2006 and in Prince George’s County, sales volume has declined 37 percent. The District has the best record with a decline compared to 2006 of only 17 percent. The Virginia suburbs’ declines range from 21 percent in Loudoun County compared to sales in 2006 and 27 percent in PWAR.
With the exception of Prince George’s County, the 2011 January through August median sales price beats both the 2009 and 2010 medians at the same time of year everywhere else in the region. The regional median of $330,000 is $85,000 less than it was at the end of August in 2006 but $20,000 higher than it was two years ago. The largest percentage increase since last year has been in Loudoun where the year-to-date median is now $380,000. NVAR leads the region with a median of $418,000 followed in second place by the District with a 2011 median of $399,900.
It takes longer to sell existing homes this year compared to last throughout the region. Last year the average days on market was 62 days in metro DC; this year the average is 71 days. The largest leap was in PWAR where an extra two weeks was added to the expected time to sell this year. It is interesting that even with the big jump, PWAR still has the lowest average in the region. Prince George’s County’s average exceeded 100 days four of the last eight months resulting in the highest average in the region.
The share of distressed sales so far this year has declined in every area except in Prince George’s County where 63 percent of 2011 sales were either short sales or bank owned properties. The lowest share is found in the District (14 percent) and it is below 30 percent in Loudoun, Montgomery and NVAR.
Given the disappointing sales in metro DC this year, it is encouraging to see that the monthly sales volume actually increased in August compared to July (albeit by only four units). With the exception of Loudoun, the component areas followed the usual trend – steady monthly sales volume declines through February of the following year. Since sales volume was alarmingly low in the second half of 2010 (following the expiration of the First Time Buyers Credit June 30th), it would be nice to see month-over-year increases through the end of 2011. The District and the northern Virginia suburbs did their part but August sales in Montgomery and Prince George’s fell behind August 2010 totals (-5 and -12 percent respectively).
For more detail, please see Metro DC EH Analysis 2011 08.
Housing Affordability Index 2Q11
Posted: August 25, 2011 Filed under: Housing Affordability Index | Tags: 2011, Affordability, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Price Changes Leave a comment »Rising Median Home Prices Affect Affordability
There were two really great pieces of information for the housing market in Loudoun County during the second quarter of 2011: interest rates were at a remarkably low level, 4.95 percent, and the median sales price increased 11 percent from the first quarter. The graph below tracks both prevailing mortgage rates (as provided by the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Affordability Index) and median sales prices by quarter in Loudoun County.
Over the last 30 quarters since the first quarter of 2004, the mortgage rate was below 5 percent in only 4 quarters – as it turns out, the last four quarters. This is one of the two largest factors affecting the share of Loudoun households that can afford the median priced home.
The second major factor is the median sales price itself; the lower it is, the more households can afford to live here. However, after the free fall in prices in recent years, it is refreshing to see that the median jumped significantly in the second quarter. In fact, the median sales price reached its highest level since the fourth quarter of 2007. That is good for sellers but does not bode well for buyers searching for affordability.
There are other factors that figure into how affordable an area is – specifically, household income, homeowner’s insurance, homeowner’s association fees, and property taxes. Assuming that monthly mortgage bills in addition to these other costs amount to 29 percent (or less) of homeowner’s monthly income, 59 percent of Loudoun County households could afford the median priced home in the second quarter of 2011. For the last eight consecutive quarters, the housing affordability index has exceeded 59 percent. Compare that to the second quarter of 2006, at the height of an overheated housing market, when only 15 percent of Loudoun households could afford the median priced home.
Household income has steadily risen over the last five years. Loudoun regularly ranks among the top 3 counties in the country for median household income. While mortgage rates and median home prices were declining, the median household income rose every year since 2006 (from $98,483 to $114,204 in 2010). Homeowner’s insurance rates have declined from an average of $55 in 2006 to $49 in 2011. These factors push affordability up.
Downward pressure came from homeowner association dues that climbed, on average, from $69 per month in Loudoun to $83 (+20 percent). Real property tax rates also increased, from $.89 per $100 of assessed value in 2006 to $1.285 in 2011. Neither of these factors were enough to negatively affect affordability though.
This two-year trend suggests that the Loudoun market has stabilized. And, the Federal Reserve has as much as guaranteed that mortgage rates will remain low through 2012. However, if home prices continue to advance, as it looks like they will, affordability will be sacrificed.
Developed by Rosemary deButts, Realtor, the Housing Affordability Index (HAI) is defined as the share of families in Loudoun County that could afford the median priced home. To determine the quarterly Index, calculations are made using annual American Community Survey household income figures, quarterly mortgage interest rates from the NAHB/Wells Fargo HAI, quarterly median sales prices from MRIS, and established housing costs (including county real property tax rates, homeowner’s insurance and HOA fees). This analysis assumes buyers use conventional financing with 20 percent down and no mortgage insurance.
Metro DC Close Price to List Price Ratio: 2011 07
Posted: August 23, 2011 Filed under: Close Price to List Price Ratio | Tags: 2011, Average Close Price, dc, Fairfax, Loudoun, Market Trends, Montgomery County, NVAR, Prince George's County, Prince William County, Washington Leave a comment »Sellers in the District and NVAR Accepting Better Offers This Year
The graph below compares the 2010 average close price to original list price ratio in the metro DC region and its component jurisdictions to the 2011 year-do-date average through July.
This indicator reflects the willingness of sellers to accept low offers (if the ratio is below 95 percent) and/or the seller’s ability to accurately price their homes to match current market conditions (if the ratio exceeds 95 percent). Note that this analysis uses the original list price rather than the current list price at sale.
Sellers in the District of Columbia and the NVAR area (Arlington and Fairfax counties, Alexandria, Falls Church and Fairfax cities) have seen improvement in their average close price to original list price ratios this year compared to last. Other areas in the region have declining averages this year.
PWAR (Prince William County and the cities of Manassas and Manassas Park) has the highest average 2011 ratio and is the only area that is above 95.9 percent. On the other hand, Prince George’s County has not only seen the largest decrease since 2010 but it is also the only area with an average below 90 percent.
The ratio for the entire region has declined only slightly with considerable help from the improvement in NVAR, which historically has the highest sales volume in the region. The significant decline in Prince George’s County this year, which ranks third in 2011 sales volume behind second place Montgomery County, led the others in pulling the metro DC average down from 94.5 percent last year to 94.2 percent this year.
