Subdivision Analysis: Villages of Purcellville 2011 05
Posted: June 13, 2011 Filed under: Subdivision Analysis | Tags: 2011, Average Close Price, days on market, Foreclosures, Listings, Loudoun, Market Trends, Pending Listings, Price Changes, Pricing, Sales, Short Sales, Villages of Purcellville, western loudoun Leave a comment »As of June 13, 2011, there were three active listings in the Villages of Purcellville community. One is a short sale that has been on the market for nearly a year; the price was reduced from $305,000 to $295,000 in late May. The average list price for the other two homes on the market is $416,900 and they’ve been active for an average of 68 days. Both of the pending sales are short sales. The average list price is $292,450 and they were on the market an average of 54 days.
Four homes have closed so far this year – one in January, one in February and two in April. One was a short sale with a close price of $390,000. Two non-distressed homes sold for $339,000 and one sold for $409,000. Therefore, the median sales price is $339,000 and the average close price is $369,250. These homes were active for an average of 68 days.
If now is the time for you to move, I would be honored to help you sell your home and/or answer any questions you may have about the real estate market here in Loudoun County.
Plus, I’ve moved to Atoka Properties in the Bloom Shopping Center. Please take a moment to visit me while you’re running errands here in town. Let’s chat about your house.
Look for my new column in The Purcellville Gazette: “The Dirt on the Market”
Western Loudoun County Analysis 2011 05
Posted: June 8, 2011 Filed under: Western Loudoun County Analysis | Tags: 2011, Average Close Price, days on market, Foreclosures, Housing, Inventory, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Price Changes, Pricing, Sales, Short Sales, western loudoun Leave a comment »Western Loudoun Median Prices Highest Since 2007
The May median sales price in the Western Loudoun area (consisting of Middleburg, Purcellville, Round Hill, Hamilton, Lovettsville and Waterford) increased 5 percent to $435,000 from the revised $414,000 in April. At this time last year, the median was only $346,916 (+25 percent). Plus, at $414,000, the year-to-date median reflects the highest annual median since 2007.
Preliminary results indicate that a total of 44 homes were sold in Western Loudoun during May. That represented a 2 increase over the revised April total of 43 units and a 17 percent decline from last May when the housing market was artificially stimulated by the First Time Buyer’s Credit program. The graph below illustrates that sales are following normal cyclical patterns, albeit with slight variations from month to month in 2011. It also shows that May 2011 sales exceeded those in May 2009 but couldn’t reach the May 2010 level. In is interesting that the January to May total sales in 2011 (196 units) outpaced the same period in 2009 (164 units, +20 percent) and almost caught 2010 (198 units, -1 percent) regardless of the Credit. This is unprecedented in Loudoun County and the metropolitan Washington, DC markets; Loudoun County posted its lowest year-to-date total sales in the first five months of 2011 compared to the same period in every year since 2006 (at least).
Western Loudoun Existing Home
Sales: 2009, 2010 and YTD 2011
The following tables summarize sales and median sales price activity in Western Loudoun during May 2011 compared to the previous month (MOM) as well as the corresponding month in 2010 (MOY) by area. Sales in Purcellville again topped the list this month with 21 units while there were only three sales in Lovettsville and Waterford. The median sales prices can vary widely by area and by month; the median in Waterford was $775,000 in May but only $252,500 in April. Compare that to the median in Middleburg of $320,000, up from $305,000 in April.
Year-to-date, 43 percent of the sales in Western Loudoun were priced between $200,000 and $399,000. In all of 2010, 37 percent of sales were similarly priced.
As is typical, homes in Western Loudoun are on the market longer than those in other areas of the county. For example, the average days on market in Western Loudoun during May 2011 amounted to 156 days, up from a revised 124 days in April and only 86 days last May. For the sake of comparison, in Eastern Loudoun, homes sold in 39 days on average in May while the average was 61 days in Leesburg. Since January 2010, the lowest average in Western Loudoun occurred last July (60 days). Like sales totals, the days on market indicator varies significantly by individual market. In Hamilton, the average was 74 days in May but it was 508 days in Waterford.
The average close price to original list price ratio may reflect two things: sellers’ ability to accurately price their homes to match market conditions and/or their willingness to negotiate price. The ratio declined in May to 91.4 percent from 93.5 percent in April. Western Loudoun normally has the lowest close price to original list price ratio; it was 96.8 percent in Eastern Loudoun and 95.5 percent in Leesburg last month. Here in the west, the lowest ratio occurred in Waterford (82 percent) and the highest was found in Hamilton (98 percent).
In May, four townhouses sold at an average price of $254,975 down from $336,667 in April. The average price for the 40 detached homes sold last month was $509,126, also down from $561,540. Condominiums are not a factor in Western Loudoun.
The share of short sales and foreclosures (21 percent distressed sales) in May was an uptick from April (18 percent). However, this time last year, the share of distressed sales was 35.8 percent. There have been no distressed sales in Middleburg so far this year and only one short sale in Waterford. Compare that to the 35 percent of year-to-date sales in Lovettsville that were distressed (ten of twenty-eight).
The month’s supply of inventory is also considerably higher in Western Loudoun than elsewhere in the county. As of June 7th, there was a 9 month’s supply of available inventory in Western Loudoun. Compare that to 2.8 months in Eastern Loudoun and 3.7 months in Leesburg. Lovettsville had the highest available inventory at 21 months and Purcellville had the lowest at 6.2 months.
Spotlight on Middleburg
There is an interesting phenomenon brewing in Western Loudoun: none of the 16 year-to-date sales in Middleburg have exceeded the $1,000,000 close price barrier. In fact, only one Middleburg property has sold at a price between $800,000 and $999,999 so far this year. The
median sold price was only $320,000 in May and it’s only $530,000 for the entire year. What else is happening in Middleburg? The average days on market in May was 473 days (2 of the 4 sales exceeded 2 years, one was on the market almost one year and 1 sold in 45 days). And, based on active listings, there is a 17 month supply of available inventory in Middleburg.
Even with Middleburg’s strange results, Western Loudoun’s housing market is doing better than the county as a whole and even the larger region. As far as sales volume is concerned, 2011 is holding its ground compared to prior years. The median sales price saw a significant increase in May, reaching the highest point since August 2010 and the overall downward trend in the share of distressed homes in recent months is also welcome news indeed.
Rosemary deButts, Realtor, has lived in Purcellville for almost twenty years and is associated with Atoka Properties, currently located near Bloom. She has the Short Sales and Foreclosure Resource certification and is a Member, Institute of Residential Marketing. Rosemary earned her degree in Economics from Randolph-Macon Woman’s College and her MBA from Old Dominion University. She and her husband, Jimmy (a lifelong resident of Western Loudoun), have seven children, six of whom are Loudoun Valley High School alums. For more
information on the Western Loudoun housing market and guidance in buying or selling a home, contact Rosemary today (rosemary@atokaproperties.com; 540-454-6792; www.housinganalyst.net).
Loudoun County Housing Update 2011 05
Posted: June 8, 2011 Filed under: Loudoun County Housing Update | Tags: 2011, Average Close Price, days on market, eastern loudoun, Foreclosures, Inventory, leesburg, Listings, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Price Changes, Pricing, Sales, Seller Subsidies, Short Sales, Tax Credit, western loudoun Leave a comment »Year-To-Date Sales Lowest in Six Years
June 8, 2011
Contact: Rosemary deButts, Realtor and MIRM
540/338-2212; rosemary@atokaproperties.com
For immediate release
(Purcellville, VA) – Through May 31, 2011, existing home sales in Loudoun County totaled 1,712 units thereby registering the lowest year-to-date total since at least 2006. The graph below illustrates monthly sales totals from January through May for the last six years. Before 2011, 2008 had the worst record with only 1,960 sales during the period. Unfortunately, the total sales so far in 2011 fall 13 percent below the previous low point in 2008.
- January-May 2011 vs. January-May 2006 = -25 percent
- January-May 2011 vs. January-May 2007 = -25 percent
- January-May 2011 vs. January-May 2008 = -13 percent
- January-May 2011 vs. January-May 2009 = -11 percent
- January-May 2011 vs. January-May 2010 = -14 percent
January to May Sales: 2006 – 2011
Preliminary sales totals for May in Loudoun fell 3 percent to 400 units from the revised 411 units in April. Last year at this time, 515 units sold across the county. Sales in Eastern Loudoun accounted for 62 percent (249 units) of the total; Leesburg sales represented 27 percent (107 units) of the total; and Western Loudoun generated the remaining 11 percent (44 units).
Of the 1,712 units sold in 2011 to date, the largest share was priced between $200,000 and $399,999 (45 percent). During May however, eight homes priced above $1,000,000 were sold – the highest total in this price category since July 2010.
While sales were disappointing, the median sales price continued its upward trek, posting the fourth consecutive monthly increase. The median was $380,000 in May, up 3 percent from April and 4 percent from last May. Both Leesburg and Western Loudoun posted median sales prices ($400,000 and $435,000 respectively) that represented increases compared to April and last May. Eastern Loudoun had a month-over-month increase in its median to $355,000 but it fell below the median last May of $365,000. Sold prices must be tempered by seller subsidies; the 2011 average seller subsidy is $3,787, down from the 2010 average of $3,814 and $4,584, the 2009 average subsidy.
For the fourth consecutive month the share of distressed sales (short sales and foreclosures) declined in Loudoun County to reach the lowest point in two years. There were 75 short sales and 34 foreclosures among the 400 sales in May (27.3 percent). Compare that to 28.2 percent in April and 27.6 percent last May. The share of distressed sales seems to fluctuate in Leesburg and Western Loudoun but in the historically troubled Eastern Loudoun portion of the county, the share has declined steadily over the last four consecutive months from 44.8 percent in January to 26.5 percent in May.
Another positive sign, the days on market indicator tumbled 20 percent from April (72 days) to May (58 days). This was the third consecutive monthly decline. However, every month this year has had a higher average than in the corresponding month in 2010. The 2010 average
from January to May was 53 days; so far in 2011 the average is 73 days.
The average close price for detached homes in May was $539,150, the highest average since July 2010. Townhouse prices averaged $302,180 and condominium prices averaged $169,573 during May. The 2011 averages are flat for detached and attached product types (roughly $515,000 and $300,000 each) but condominium prices have declined from $182,000 in 2010 to $172,000 in 2011 (-6 percent).
If the month’s supply of inventory were between four and five months, the market would be in equilibrium (there would be enough supply to satisfy demand). However, with only 1,504 active listings (as of June 7th), the supply is only 3.8 months. This is an especially dire situation in
Eastern Loudoun where the inventory was only 2.8 months in May and only 3.0 months all year. The supply equaled 3.7 months in Leesburg during May but in Western Loudoun, there was a nine-month supply of listings on the market.
Over the last six months of 2010, the close price to original list price ratio hovered at around 95 percent. During the first quarter of 2011, the ratio plummeted. For the last two months though, the ratio has again exceeded 95 percent in Loudoun. In May, the ratio was 95.7
percent, the highest ratio since October 2010.
Purcellville based real estate consultant Rosemary deButts summarized, “My 2011 sales projections will have to be scaled back considerably. The peak in monthly sales typically occurs in June every year but June 2011 sales would have to exceed 780 units to catch up to the 2008-2009 pace and 865 units to catch the 2010 pace. The highest monthly sales total since 2006 occurred in June 2008 with 599 units. Therefore, it is unlikely 2011 will recover its early losses by year end.”###
Metro DC Housing Analysis 2011 05
Posted: June 7, 2011 Filed under: Metro DC Housing Analysis | Tags: 2011, Alexandria, Arlington County, Average Close Price, days on market, Fairfax, Foreclosures, Inventory, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Montgomery County, NVAR, Price Changes, Pricing, Prince George's County, Prince William County, Recovery, Sales, Short Sales, Tax Credit, Washington Leave a comment »
YTD 2011: Lowest Total Sales Since 2008
June 7, 2011
Contact: Rosemary deButts, REALTOR, MIRM
540/338-2212;
rosemary@atokaproperties.com
For immediate release
(Washington, DC) – In the first five months of 2006, total sales in the metropolitan Washington, DC area amounted to 29,312 units. Like the rest of the country, the housing downturn cut sales activity in 2007 and hit the metropolitan Washington, DC market especially hard in 2008 when the total number of existing home sales from January through May only totaled 18,656 units (-36 percent vs. 2006). In 2009 and 2010, metro DC sales advanced from the 2008 low naturally and as a result of the government’s First Time Buyer’s Credit program. But through May 31, 2011, only 20,387 units have sold in the region this year reflecting a 13 percent decline from the same time period in 2010 and a 2 percent decline from January through May 2009. The graph below shows monthly sales activity for the first five months of each year since 2006 here in Washington, DC.
Monthly Sales: Jan-May 2006/2011
The graph also indicates that total unit sales in 2011 reached the lowest point for May over the last six years (4,838 units; +5 percent vs. April but -20 percent vs. May 2010). The First Time Buyer’s Credit program was in full swing last year at this time explaining why the 2011 sales
figure was lower than in 2010. However, sales were expected to outpace 2008 and 2009, at least. It is disheartening that the sales volume in May wasn’t more robust. Following the normal bell curve characteristic of this cyclical industry, sales volume in June will represent the monthly sales peak in 2011. From June to December, sales typically decline on a monthly basis meaning that without a very strong June, sales in 2011 are likely to register below corresponding 2008 levels – below the lowest point of the recession.
Typically, the market is considered to be in equilibrium (there is enough supply to satisfy demand) when the available inventory is between four and five months in this market. The month’s supply of inventory remained unchanged in May at 3.7 months and has not met or exceeded
four months since February. Low inventory is therefore a contributor to stubbornly slow sales.
Sales increased on a month-over-month basis in all local Realtor Associations with the exception of Loudoun and Prince George’s County (-3 and -2 percent vs. April respectively). NVAR saw a 12 percent gain and Washington, DC had an increase of 10 percent compared to
April. All Associations had sales decreases compared to last May though, ranging from -14 percent in Washington, DC to -28 percent in PWAR.
According to Loudoun-based real estate consultant Rosemary deButts, “Existing home sales in the region are struggling this year as are other indicators in the market. For example, median sales prices have not reached corresponding 2010 levels since January.”
The median sales price increased for the second consecutive month across the region in May to reach $311,000, reflecting a 5 percent gain over the revised April median. However, the median in May 2010 was $327,000 (+5 percent vs. May 2011). Washington, DC’s median reached $425,000 in May, up 10 percent from April and + 11 percent from last May. The median in Prince George’s County remained flat at $165,000 but that was a 16 percent decline from May 2010.
On a positive note, the days on market indicator took a dive from 75 days in April to 65 days in May. While this was good news, at 65 days it was still 29 percent higher than the average of 51 days last May. Prince George’s County posted another 100+ average; the May average days on market there was 103 days (down from 108 in April). The homes in PWAR and NVAR sold at the fastest pace in May; 52 and 53 days on average respectively.
With the exception of Montgomery County, all area Associations’ close price to original list price ratio improved in May. The high was 97.2 percent in Washington, DC and the low was 88.4 percent in Prince George’s County. The average across the entire region was 95.2 percent, up from 94.5 in April but down from 95.8 last May.
Average close prices for detached homes advanced to the highest level in the last five months ($494,461); average townhome prices reached the highest point since last July at $348,513; and condominium prices climbed to $296,189 across the region in May.
The share of distressed sales (short sales and foreclosures) receded well below 30 percent for the first time since July 2010 to reach 27 percent in May region-wide. In fact, the share of distressed sales has been below the share in the corresponding month in 2010 every month this year. The range though is wide; 61 percent of sales in Prince George’s County were distressed last month while only 11 percent were distressed in Washington, DC. All Associations reported declines in the share of distressed sales compared to the share in April.
Rosemary deButts further commented, “Metro DC sales activity was discouraging in May…after a discouraging April. Sales and median sales prices, the two most important indicators, are still lagging behind where they should be at this time of year.”
Washington, DC Home Price Index 2011 03
Posted: May 31, 2011 Filed under: Washington DC Home Price Index | Tags: 2011, case-shiller, Price Changes, Pricing Leave a comment »
Loudoun County Median Sales Price 2011 04
Posted: May 18, 2011 Filed under: Median Sales Prices | Tags: 2011, eastern loudoun, leesburg, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Price Changes, Pricing, western loudoun Leave a comment »
Subdivision Analysis: Villages of Purcellville 2011 04
Posted: May 17, 2011 Filed under: Subdivision Analysis | Tags: 2011, days on market, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Price Changes, Pricing, Sales, Seller Subsidies, Short Sales, Villages of Purcellville, western loudoun Leave a comment »
Washington, DC Home Price Index 2011 02
Posted: May 17, 2011 Filed under: Washington DC Home Price Index | Tags: 2011, case-shiller, Price Changes, Pricing, Recovery, Washington Leave a comment »
Loudoun County Housing Analysis 2011 03
Posted: April 13, 2011 Filed under: Loudoun County Housing Update | Tags: 2011, Average Close Price, days on market, eastern loudoun, Foreclosures, Housing, Inventory, leesburg, Listings, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Pending Listings, Price Changes, Pricing, Sales, Seller Subsidies, Short Sales, western loudoun Leave a comment »
Loudoun County Housing Analysis 2011 03
Loudoun’s Housing Market Limps into Spring
April 13, 2011
Contact: Rosemary deButts, REALTOR, MIRM 540/338-2212; rosemary@atokaproperties.com
For immediate release
(Purcellville, VA) – The housing market in Loudoun County was lethargic in March 2011. Even with slightly more active listings than at this time last year, sales which should skyrocket in March only advanced 21 percent compared to February 2011. Preliminary total unit sales advanced to 347 units from February’s revised 288 units. Sales in Eastern Loudoun accounted for an unusually low 60 percent of Loudoun’s total sales last month. About 50 percent of Loudoun’s sales so far this year were priced between $200,000 and $399,999.
For the second month, the median sales price advanced – .6% to $362,170 in March from $360,000 in February. The median in Eastern Loudoun was $349,900; it was $375,000 in Leesburg and $410,000 in Western Loudoun – all increases over February.
Average seller subsidies decreased 16 percent in March to $3,248. Compare that to the 2010 annual average of $3,814.
About 62 percent of the 111 total distressed sales in March were short sales, 38 percent were bank owned properties. The total share of distressed sales was 30 percent, down from 39 percent in February. The share in Eastern Loudoun was 34 percent; it was 26 percent in Leesburg and 24 percent in Western Loudoun.
The days on market indicator declined in March to 77 days, after reaching a two year high in February. The 2010 monthly average was only 54 days. Three units sold in March that had been on the market for over two years. Four of the nine sales in March that were on the market at least a year were in Western Loudoun.
The average close price for Loudoun’s detached homes last month was $503,952; it was $301,220 for attached units and $158,385 for condominiums. The 2011 average close prices for detached and attached units are 2-3 percent below the 2010 average but condominium prices are 7 percent below last year’s average.
Pending listings advanced 24 percent to 512 in March from 413 in February. This figure lags well behind last March though (probably as a result of the First Time Buyer’s Credit in 2010). The number of active listings grew 29 percent last month and is actually slighly higher than the figure from last March. The month’s supply of inventory was 4.2 months in March, up from 4.0 in Febuary and 3.1 last March. The available inventory in Eastern Loudoun was 3.4 months; it was 4.0 months in Leesburg and 8.9 months in Western Loudoun.
The average close price to original list price ratio recovered in Western Loudoun from 76.3 percent to 88.7 percent. Eastern Loudoun sellers garnered 95.7 percent of their asking price in March and in Leesburg, the ratio was 94.9 percent.
Purcellville based real estate consultant Rosemary deButts summarized, “I had higher hopes for sales activity this month. Although the figures are respectable, the market did not have the banner month we need to regain headway lost after the First Time Buyer’s Credit expired last summer.”###
Metro DC Housing Analysis 2011 03
Posted: April 12, 2011 Filed under: Metro DC Housing Analysis | Tags: Alexandria, Arlington County, Average Close Price, days on market, dc, Fairfax, Foreclosures, Housing, Inventory, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Montgomery County, NVAR, Price Changes, Pricing, Prince George's County, Prince William County, Sales, Seller Subsidies, Short Sales, Tax Credit, Washington Leave a comment »
Prince George’s County Can’t Catch a Break
April 12, 2011
(Washington, DC) – Spring has sprung along with the cherry blossoms in the nation’s capital but the housing market in nearby Prince George’s County had yet another rough month in March 2011. Of the six local markets, only Prince George’s posted a decline in its year-to-date median sales price. It fell from $164,000 as of February 28th to $159,900 as of March 31st. Compared to March 2010 when the median sales price was $190,000, the March 2011 median was only $155,000. Further, the average days on market increased 11 percent to 98 days in March. Prince George’s had the only close price to original list price ratio that declined and at 80.3 percent was also the lowest in the region. Prince George’s biggest problem though is the share of distressed homes sold each month. In March it was 71 percent, easily the highest share in metro Washington, DC.
Normal cyclical sales trends are at play – preliminary sales increased 36 percent across the region to 4,460 units in March compared to February’s revised total of 4,925. The advance was not enough though to reach the March 2010 level (when the First Time Buyer’s Credit was in full swing). The largest month-over-month percentage increase occurred in Washington, DC with a whopping 49 percent increase. The smallest was in Loudoun with 21 percent. For the first time this year, the median sales price exceeded the $300,000 bar at $305,000 measuring a healthy 6 percent increase over the February median. Montgomery County had the highest monthly increase last month to reach $331,900 (+11 percent). Washington, DC had the highest percentage increase compared to last March with $378,000 (+7 percent).
According to Loudoun-based real estate consultant Rosemary deButts, “As is often the case, February’s housing statistics were somewhat disappointing. While March is following normal cyclical patterns and had healthy increases, the sales pace and median sales prices seem to look more like 2009 than 2010 — before the First Time Buyer’s Credit artificially stimulated demand.” After nine months of consecutive increases, the average days on market indicator had a slight decline to 80 days in March. The 2011 average is also 80 days; compare that to 62 days in 2010. The low point was 51 days in May 2010. Loudoun had the highest month-over-month decrease to 77 days (-9 percent) while NVAR had the highest month-over-year increase to 71 days (+40 percent).
For the second consecutive month the close price to original list price ratio improved. It was 94 percent in March, 93.2 percent in February 2011 and 94.4 percent last March. Loudoun had the largest increase last month to reach 94.5 percent while Washington, DC had the largest increase compared to March 2010 to reach 93.2 percent. Average close prices advanced for all product types. The average for detached units was $462,242 in March; attached units posted an average of $324,659; and the average close price for condominiums was $275,028. The average close price for detached units in the Washington, DC market was $807,644, the result of 43 properties that sold for over $1,000,000 each last month. The highest sold price was $4,000,000.
The share of distressed sales (short sales and foreclosures) receded below 40 percent in March across the region after a sharp increase in February 2011. All local areas saw decreases in the share of distressed sales except for Prince George’s County and PWAR. The sub-market with the lowest share of distressed sales was Washington, DC at 15 percent. Rosemary deButts further commented, “March was the first month of the spring market. Disregarding 2010, sales were right on target compared to March sales in 2008 and 2009. While I don’t expect 2011 monthly sales to exceed the corresponding month in 2010 until the second half of the year, the market is behaving as expected.”
