Subdivision Analysis: Hirst Farm 2011 07 05
Posted: July 6, 2011 Filed under: Subdivision Analysis | Tags: 2011, Average Close Price, days on market, Hirst Farm, Listings, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Pending Listings, Price Changes, Pricing, Sales, Seller Subsidies, Short Sales, western loudoun Leave a comment »
As of May 31st, six homes have sold in Hirst Farm so far this year. Two of the six were short sales and two were bank owned properties (67 percent distressed). The annualized pace suggests roughly 14 homes will sell this year, 3 fewer than last year. While still below the 2010 median, the year-to-date median sales price in Hirst Farm was up from $399,000 in April to $409,000 at the end of May (+3 percent). The average seller subsidy is on the rise though in this community, up 44 percent from the average in 2010 and it has taken 20 percent longer to sell Hirst Farm homes this year compared to last.
As of July 6, 2011, there was only one pending sale in Hirst Farm and no active listings. The pending sale is a short sale at a current list price of $369,900. The home was on the market 38 days.
Hirst Farm is clearly a victim of when it was built and the ensuing meltdown of the real estate market. I specialize in short sales and have a system to make the process as painless and quick as possible. There is no competition at the moment…a good time to list and sell your home. Please call me, I would be honored to help you sell your home and/or answer any questions you may have about the real estate market here in Loudoun County.
Don’t miss my monthly column on western Loudoun housing trends, “The Dirt on the Market”, in The Purcellville Gazette.
Subdivision Analysis: Locust Grove 2011 05
Posted: June 8, 2011 Filed under: Subdivision Analysis | Tags: 2011, Average Close Price, Foreclosures, Listings, Locust Grove, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Sales, Seller Subsidies, Short Sales, western loudoun Leave a comment »
Loudoun County Housing Update 2011 05
Posted: June 8, 2011 Filed under: Loudoun County Housing Update | Tags: 2011, Average Close Price, days on market, eastern loudoun, Foreclosures, Inventory, leesburg, Listings, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Price Changes, Pricing, Sales, Seller Subsidies, Short Sales, Tax Credit, western loudoun Leave a comment »Year-To-Date Sales Lowest in Six Years
June 8, 2011
Contact: Rosemary deButts, Realtor and MIRM
540/338-2212; rosemary@atokaproperties.com
For immediate release
(Purcellville, VA) – Through May 31, 2011, existing home sales in Loudoun County totaled 1,712 units thereby registering the lowest year-to-date total since at least 2006. The graph below illustrates monthly sales totals from January through May for the last six years. Before 2011, 2008 had the worst record with only 1,960 sales during the period. Unfortunately, the total sales so far in 2011 fall 13 percent below the previous low point in 2008.
- January-May 2011 vs. January-May 2006 = -25 percent
- January-May 2011 vs. January-May 2007 = -25 percent
- January-May 2011 vs. January-May 2008 = -13 percent
- January-May 2011 vs. January-May 2009 = -11 percent
- January-May 2011 vs. January-May 2010 = -14 percent
January to May Sales: 2006 – 2011
Preliminary sales totals for May in Loudoun fell 3 percent to 400 units from the revised 411 units in April. Last year at this time, 515 units sold across the county. Sales in Eastern Loudoun accounted for 62 percent (249 units) of the total; Leesburg sales represented 27 percent (107 units) of the total; and Western Loudoun generated the remaining 11 percent (44 units).
Of the 1,712 units sold in 2011 to date, the largest share was priced between $200,000 and $399,999 (45 percent). During May however, eight homes priced above $1,000,000 were sold – the highest total in this price category since July 2010.
While sales were disappointing, the median sales price continued its upward trek, posting the fourth consecutive monthly increase. The median was $380,000 in May, up 3 percent from April and 4 percent from last May. Both Leesburg and Western Loudoun posted median sales prices ($400,000 and $435,000 respectively) that represented increases compared to April and last May. Eastern Loudoun had a month-over-month increase in its median to $355,000 but it fell below the median last May of $365,000. Sold prices must be tempered by seller subsidies; the 2011 average seller subsidy is $3,787, down from the 2010 average of $3,814 and $4,584, the 2009 average subsidy.
For the fourth consecutive month the share of distressed sales (short sales and foreclosures) declined in Loudoun County to reach the lowest point in two years. There were 75 short sales and 34 foreclosures among the 400 sales in May (27.3 percent). Compare that to 28.2 percent in April and 27.6 percent last May. The share of distressed sales seems to fluctuate in Leesburg and Western Loudoun but in the historically troubled Eastern Loudoun portion of the county, the share has declined steadily over the last four consecutive months from 44.8 percent in January to 26.5 percent in May.
Another positive sign, the days on market indicator tumbled 20 percent from April (72 days) to May (58 days). This was the third consecutive monthly decline. However, every month this year has had a higher average than in the corresponding month in 2010. The 2010 average
from January to May was 53 days; so far in 2011 the average is 73 days.
The average close price for detached homes in May was $539,150, the highest average since July 2010. Townhouse prices averaged $302,180 and condominium prices averaged $169,573 during May. The 2011 averages are flat for detached and attached product types (roughly $515,000 and $300,000 each) but condominium prices have declined from $182,000 in 2010 to $172,000 in 2011 (-6 percent).
If the month’s supply of inventory were between four and five months, the market would be in equilibrium (there would be enough supply to satisfy demand). However, with only 1,504 active listings (as of June 7th), the supply is only 3.8 months. This is an especially dire situation in
Eastern Loudoun where the inventory was only 2.8 months in May and only 3.0 months all year. The supply equaled 3.7 months in Leesburg during May but in Western Loudoun, there was a nine-month supply of listings on the market.
Over the last six months of 2010, the close price to original list price ratio hovered at around 95 percent. During the first quarter of 2011, the ratio plummeted. For the last two months though, the ratio has again exceeded 95 percent in Loudoun. In May, the ratio was 95.7
percent, the highest ratio since October 2010.
Purcellville based real estate consultant Rosemary deButts summarized, “My 2011 sales projections will have to be scaled back considerably. The peak in monthly sales typically occurs in June every year but June 2011 sales would have to exceed 780 units to catch up to the 2008-2009 pace and 865 units to catch the 2010 pace. The highest monthly sales total since 2006 occurred in June 2008 with 599 units. Therefore, it is unlikely 2011 will recover its early losses by year end.”###
Subdivision Analysis: Villages of Purcellville 2011 04
Posted: May 17, 2011 Filed under: Subdivision Analysis | Tags: 2011, days on market, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Price Changes, Pricing, Sales, Seller Subsidies, Short Sales, Villages of Purcellville, western loudoun Leave a comment »
Subdivision Analysis: Locust Grove 2011 04 22
Posted: April 22, 2011 Filed under: Subdivision Analysis | Tags: 2011, Average Close Price, days on market, Foreclosures, Locust Grove, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Pending Listings, Seller Subsidies, Short Sales, western loudoun Leave a comment »
Loudoun County Housing Analysis 2011 03
Posted: April 13, 2011 Filed under: Loudoun County Housing Update | Tags: 2011, Average Close Price, days on market, eastern loudoun, Foreclosures, Housing, Inventory, leesburg, Listings, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Pending Listings, Price Changes, Pricing, Sales, Seller Subsidies, Short Sales, western loudoun Leave a comment »
Loudoun County Housing Analysis 2011 03
Loudoun’s Housing Market Limps into Spring
April 13, 2011
Contact: Rosemary deButts, REALTOR, MIRM 540/338-2212; rosemary@atokaproperties.com
For immediate release
(Purcellville, VA) – The housing market in Loudoun County was lethargic in March 2011. Even with slightly more active listings than at this time last year, sales which should skyrocket in March only advanced 21 percent compared to February 2011. Preliminary total unit sales advanced to 347 units from February’s revised 288 units. Sales in Eastern Loudoun accounted for an unusually low 60 percent of Loudoun’s total sales last month. About 50 percent of Loudoun’s sales so far this year were priced between $200,000 and $399,999.
For the second month, the median sales price advanced – .6% to $362,170 in March from $360,000 in February. The median in Eastern Loudoun was $349,900; it was $375,000 in Leesburg and $410,000 in Western Loudoun – all increases over February.
Average seller subsidies decreased 16 percent in March to $3,248. Compare that to the 2010 annual average of $3,814.
About 62 percent of the 111 total distressed sales in March were short sales, 38 percent were bank owned properties. The total share of distressed sales was 30 percent, down from 39 percent in February. The share in Eastern Loudoun was 34 percent; it was 26 percent in Leesburg and 24 percent in Western Loudoun.
The days on market indicator declined in March to 77 days, after reaching a two year high in February. The 2010 monthly average was only 54 days. Three units sold in March that had been on the market for over two years. Four of the nine sales in March that were on the market at least a year were in Western Loudoun.
The average close price for Loudoun’s detached homes last month was $503,952; it was $301,220 for attached units and $158,385 for condominiums. The 2011 average close prices for detached and attached units are 2-3 percent below the 2010 average but condominium prices are 7 percent below last year’s average.
Pending listings advanced 24 percent to 512 in March from 413 in February. This figure lags well behind last March though (probably as a result of the First Time Buyer’s Credit in 2010). The number of active listings grew 29 percent last month and is actually slighly higher than the figure from last March. The month’s supply of inventory was 4.2 months in March, up from 4.0 in Febuary and 3.1 last March. The available inventory in Eastern Loudoun was 3.4 months; it was 4.0 months in Leesburg and 8.9 months in Western Loudoun.
The average close price to original list price ratio recovered in Western Loudoun from 76.3 percent to 88.7 percent. Eastern Loudoun sellers garnered 95.7 percent of their asking price in March and in Leesburg, the ratio was 94.9 percent.
Purcellville based real estate consultant Rosemary deButts summarized, “I had higher hopes for sales activity this month. Although the figures are respectable, the market did not have the banner month we need to regain headway lost after the First Time Buyer’s Credit expired last summer.”###
Metro DC Housing Analysis 2011 03
Posted: April 12, 2011 Filed under: Metro DC Housing Analysis | Tags: Alexandria, Arlington County, Average Close Price, days on market, dc, Fairfax, Foreclosures, Housing, Inventory, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Montgomery County, NVAR, Price Changes, Pricing, Prince George's County, Prince William County, Sales, Seller Subsidies, Short Sales, Tax Credit, Washington Leave a comment »
Prince George’s County Can’t Catch a Break
April 12, 2011
(Washington, DC) – Spring has sprung along with the cherry blossoms in the nation’s capital but the housing market in nearby Prince George’s County had yet another rough month in March 2011. Of the six local markets, only Prince George’s posted a decline in its year-to-date median sales price. It fell from $164,000 as of February 28th to $159,900 as of March 31st. Compared to March 2010 when the median sales price was $190,000, the March 2011 median was only $155,000. Further, the average days on market increased 11 percent to 98 days in March. Prince George’s had the only close price to original list price ratio that declined and at 80.3 percent was also the lowest in the region. Prince George’s biggest problem though is the share of distressed homes sold each month. In March it was 71 percent, easily the highest share in metro Washington, DC.
Normal cyclical sales trends are at play – preliminary sales increased 36 percent across the region to 4,460 units in March compared to February’s revised total of 4,925. The advance was not enough though to reach the March 2010 level (when the First Time Buyer’s Credit was in full swing). The largest month-over-month percentage increase occurred in Washington, DC with a whopping 49 percent increase. The smallest was in Loudoun with 21 percent. For the first time this year, the median sales price exceeded the $300,000 bar at $305,000 measuring a healthy 6 percent increase over the February median. Montgomery County had the highest monthly increase last month to reach $331,900 (+11 percent). Washington, DC had the highest percentage increase compared to last March with $378,000 (+7 percent).
According to Loudoun-based real estate consultant Rosemary deButts, “As is often the case, February’s housing statistics were somewhat disappointing. While March is following normal cyclical patterns and had healthy increases, the sales pace and median sales prices seem to look more like 2009 than 2010 — before the First Time Buyer’s Credit artificially stimulated demand.” After nine months of consecutive increases, the average days on market indicator had a slight decline to 80 days in March. The 2011 average is also 80 days; compare that to 62 days in 2010. The low point was 51 days in May 2010. Loudoun had the highest month-over-month decrease to 77 days (-9 percent) while NVAR had the highest month-over-year increase to 71 days (+40 percent).
For the second consecutive month the close price to original list price ratio improved. It was 94 percent in March, 93.2 percent in February 2011 and 94.4 percent last March. Loudoun had the largest increase last month to reach 94.5 percent while Washington, DC had the largest increase compared to March 2010 to reach 93.2 percent. Average close prices advanced for all product types. The average for detached units was $462,242 in March; attached units posted an average of $324,659; and the average close price for condominiums was $275,028. The average close price for detached units in the Washington, DC market was $807,644, the result of 43 properties that sold for over $1,000,000 each last month. The highest sold price was $4,000,000.
The share of distressed sales (short sales and foreclosures) receded below 40 percent in March across the region after a sharp increase in February 2011. All local areas saw decreases in the share of distressed sales except for Prince George’s County and PWAR. The sub-market with the lowest share of distressed sales was Washington, DC at 15 percent. Rosemary deButts further commented, “March was the first month of the spring market. Disregarding 2010, sales were right on target compared to March sales in 2008 and 2009. While I don’t expect 2011 monthly sales to exceed the corresponding month in 2010 until the second half of the year, the market is behaving as expected.”
Subdivision Analysis – Hirst Farm 2011 03 16
Posted: March 16, 2011 Filed under: Subdivision Analysis | Tags: 2011, Average Close Price, days on market, Foreclosures, Hirst Farm, Inventory, Listings, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Pending Listings, Price Changes, Pricing, Sales, Seller Subsidies, western loudoun Leave a comment »
Subdivision Analysis – Villages of Purcellville 2011 03 15
Posted: March 15, 2011 Filed under: Subdivision Analysis | Tags: 2011, Average Close Price, days on market, Foreclosures, Listings, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Pending Listings, Price Changes, Pricing, Sales, Seller Subsidies, Short Sales, Villages of Purcellville, western loudoun Leave a comment »
