Dirt on the Market (January 2012)

Posted: January 10, 2012 | Author: Rosemary deButts | Filed under: Dirt on the Market | Tags: 2011, days on market, eastern loudoun, Foreclosures, Hirst Farm, Housing, leesburg, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Price Changes, Sales, Short Sales, Tax Credit, western loudoun | Leave a comment »

For the January 2012 edition of “Dirt on the Market”, click: DOTM 2012 01 10.

Here’s an excerpt:

Loudoun County Housing Update 2011 05

Posted: June 8, 2011 | Author: Rosemary deButts | Filed under: Loudoun County Housing Update | Tags: 2011, Average Close Price, days on market, eastern loudoun, Foreclosures, Inventory, leesburg, Listings, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Price Changes, Pricing, Sales, Seller Subsidies, Short Sales, Tax Credit, western loudoun | Leave a comment »

LDN EH Analysis 2011 05

Year-To-Date Sales Lowest in Six Years

June 8, 2011

Contact: Rosemary deButts, Realtor and MIRM

540/338-2212; rosemary@atokaproperties.com

For immediate release

(Purcellville, VA) – Through May 31, 2011, existing home sales in Loudoun County totaled 1,712 units thereby registering the lowest year-to-date total since at least 2006. The graph below illustrates monthly sales totals from January through May for the last six years. Before 2011, 2008 had the worst record with only 1,960 sales during the period. Unfortunately, the total sales so far in 2011 fall 13 percent below the previous low point in 2008.

January-May 2011 vs. January-May 2006 = -25 percent
January-May 2011 vs. January-May 2007 = -25 percent
January-May 2011 vs. January-May 2008 = -13 percent
January-May 2011 vs. January-May 2009 = -11 percent
January-May 2011 vs. January-May 2010 = -14 percent

January to May Sales: 2006 – 2011

Preliminary sales totals for May in Loudoun fell 3 percent to 400 units from the revised 411 units in April. Last year at this time, 515 units sold across the county. Sales in Eastern Loudoun accounted for 62 percent (249 units) of the total; Leesburg sales represented 27 percent (107 units) of the total; and Western Loudoun generated the remaining 11 percent (44 units).

Of the 1,712 units sold in 2011 to date, the largest share was priced between $200,000 and $399,999 (45 percent). During May however, eight homes priced above $1,000,000 were sold – the highest total in this price category since July 2010.

While sales were disappointing, the median sales price continued its upward trek, posting the fourth consecutive monthly increase. The median was $380,000 in May, up 3 percent from April and 4 percent from last May. Both Leesburg and Western Loudoun posted median sales prices ($400,000 and $435,000 respectively) that represented increases compared to April and last May. Eastern Loudoun had a month-over-month increase in its median to $355,000 but it fell below the median last May of $365,000. Sold prices must be tempered by seller subsidies; the 2011 average seller subsidy is $3,787, down from the 2010 average of $3,814 and $4,584, the 2009 average subsidy.

For the fourth consecutive month the share of distressed sales (short sales and foreclosures) declined in Loudoun County to reach the lowest point in two years. There were 75 short sales and 34 foreclosures among the 400 sales in May (27.3 percent). Compare that to 28.2 percent in April and 27.6 percent last May. The share of distressed sales seems to fluctuate in Leesburg and Western Loudoun but in the historically troubled Eastern Loudoun portion of the county, the share has declined steadily over the last four consecutive months from 44.8 percent in January to 26.5 percent in May.

Another positive sign, the days on market indicator tumbled 20 percent from April (72 days) to May (58 days). This was the third consecutive monthly decline. However, every month this year has had a higher average than in the corresponding month in 2010. The 2010 average
from January to May was 53 days; so far in 2011 the average is 73 days.

The average close price for detached homes in May was $539,150, the highest average since July 2010. Townhouse prices averaged $302,180 and condominium prices averaged $169,573 during May. The 2011 averages are flat for detached and attached product types (roughly $515,000 and $300,000 each) but condominium prices have declined from $182,000 in 2010 to $172,000 in 2011 (-6 percent).

If the month’s supply of inventory were between four and five months, the market would be in equilibrium (there would be enough supply to satisfy demand). However, with only 1,504 active listings (as of June 7^th), the supply is only 3.8 months. This is an especially dire situation in
Eastern Loudoun where the inventory was only 2.8 months in May and only 3.0 months all year. The supply equaled 3.7 months in Leesburg during May but in Western Loudoun, there was a nine-month supply of listings on the market.

Over the last six months of 2010, the close price to original list price ratio hovered at around 95 percent. During the first quarter of 2011, the ratio plummeted. For the last two months though, the ratio has again exceeded 95 percent in Loudoun. In May, the ratio was 95.7
percent, the highest ratio since October 2010.

Purcellville based real estate consultant Rosemary deButts summarized, “My 2011 sales projections will have to be scaled back considerably. The peak in monthly sales typically occurs in June every year but June 2011 sales would have to exceed 780 units to catch up to the 2008-2009 pace and 865 units to catch the 2010 pace. The highest monthly sales total since 2006 occurred in June 2008 with 599 units. Therefore, it is unlikely 2011 will recover its early losses by year end.”###

Metro DC Housing Analysis 2011 05

Posted: June 7, 2011 | Author: Rosemary deButts | Filed under: Metro DC Housing Analysis | Tags: 2011, Alexandria, Arlington County, Average Close Price, days on market, Fairfax, Foreclosures, Inventory, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Montgomery County, NVAR, Price Changes, Pricing, Prince George's County, Prince William County, Recovery, Sales, Short Sales, Tax Credit, Washington | Leave a comment »

Metro DC EH Analysis 2011 05

YTD 2011: Lowest Total Sales Since 2008

June 7, 2011

Contact: Rosemary deButts, REALTOR, MIRM

540/338-2212;
rosemary@atokaproperties.com

For immediate release

(Washington, DC) – In the first five months of 2006, total sales in the metropolitan Washington, DC area amounted to 29,312 units. Like the rest of the country, the housing downturn cut sales activity in 2007 and hit the metropolitan Washington, DC market especially hard in 2008 when the total number of existing home sales from January through May only totaled 18,656 units (-36 percent vs. 2006). In 2009 and 2010, metro DC sales advanced from the 2008 low naturally and as a result of the government’s First Time Buyer’s Credit program. But through May 31, 2011, only 20,387 units have sold in the region this year reflecting a 13 percent decline from the same time period in 2010 and a 2 percent decline from January through May 2009. The graph below shows monthly sales activity for the first five months of each year since 2006 here in Washington, DC.

Monthly Sales: Jan-May 2006/2011

The graph also indicates that total unit sales in 2011 reached the lowest point for May over the last six years (4,838 units; +5 percent vs. April but -20 percent vs. May 2010). The First Time Buyer’s Credit program was in full swing last year at this time explaining why the 2011 sales
figure was lower than in 2010. However, sales were expected to outpace 2008 and 2009, at least. It is disheartening that the sales volume in May wasn’t more robust. Following the normal bell curve characteristic of this cyclical industry, sales volume in June will represent the monthly sales peak in 2011. From June to December, sales typically decline on a monthly basis meaning that without a very strong June, sales in 2011 are likely to register below corresponding 2008 levels – below the lowest point of the recession.

Typically, the market is considered to be in equilibrium (there is enough supply to satisfy demand) when the available inventory is between four and five months in this market. The month’s supply of inventory remained unchanged in May at 3.7 months and has not met or exceeded
four months since February. Low inventory is therefore a contributor to stubbornly slow sales.

Sales increased on a month-over-month basis in all local Realtor Associations with the exception of Loudoun and Prince George’s County (-3 and -2 percent vs. April respectively). NVAR saw a 12 percent gain and Washington, DC had an increase of 10 percent compared to
April. All Associations had sales decreases compared to last May though, ranging from -14 percent in Washington, DC to -28 percent in PWAR.

According to Loudoun-based real estate consultant Rosemary deButts, “Existing home sales in the region are struggling this year as are other indicators in the market. For example, median sales prices have not reached corresponding 2010 levels since January.”

The median sales price increased for the second consecutive month across the region in May to reach $311,000, reflecting a 5 percent gain over the revised April median. However, the median in May 2010 was $327,000 (+5 percent vs. May 2011). Washington, DC’s median reached $425,000 in May, up 10 percent from April and + 11 percent from last May. The median in Prince George’s County remained flat at $165,000 but that was a 16 percent decline from May 2010.

On a positive note, the days on market indicator took a dive from 75 days in April to 65 days in May. While this was good news, at 65 days it was still 29 percent higher than the average of 51 days last May. Prince George’s County posted another 100+ average; the May average days on market there was 103 days (down from 108 in April). The homes in PWAR and NVAR sold at the fastest pace in May; 52 and 53 days on average respectively.

With the exception of Montgomery County, all area Associations’ close price to original list price ratio improved in May. The high was 97.2 percent in Washington, DC and the low was 88.4 percent in Prince George’s County. The average across the entire region was 95.2 percent, up from 94.5 in April but down from 95.8 last May.

Average close prices for detached homes advanced to the highest level in the last five months ($494,461); average townhome prices reached the highest point since last July at $348,513; and condominium prices climbed to $296,189 across the region in May.

The share of distressed sales (short sales and foreclosures) receded well below 30 percent for the first time since July 2010 to reach 27 percent in May region-wide. In fact, the share of distressed sales has been below the share in the corresponding month in 2010 every month this year. The range though is wide; 61 percent of sales in Prince George’s County were distressed last month while only 11 percent were distressed in Washington, DC. All Associations reported declines in the share of distressed sales compared to the share in April.

Rosemary deButts further commented, “Metro DC sales activity was discouraging in May…after a discouraging April. Sales and median sales prices, the two most important indicators, are still lagging behind where they should be at this time of year.”

Metro DC Housing Analysis 2011 03

Posted: April 12, 2011 | Author: Rosemary deButts | Filed under: Metro DC Housing Analysis | Tags: Alexandria, Arlington County, Average Close Price, days on market, dc, Fairfax, Foreclosures, Housing, Inventory, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Montgomery County, NVAR, Price Changes, Pricing, Prince George's County, Prince William County, Sales, Seller Subsidies, Short Sales, Tax Credit, Washington | Leave a comment »

Prince George’s County Can’t Catch a Break

April 12, 2011

(Washington, DC) – Spring has sprung along with the cherry blossoms in the nation’s capital but the housing market in nearby Prince George’s County had yet another rough month in March 2011. Of the six local markets, only Prince George’s posted a decline in its year-to-date median sales price. It fell from $164,000 as of February 28th to $159,900 as of March 31st. Compared to March 2010 when the median sales price was $190,000, the March 2011 median was only $155,000. Further, the average days on market increased 11 percent to 98 days in March. Prince George’s had the only close price to original list price ratio that declined and at 80.3 percent was also the lowest in the region. Prince George’s biggest problem though is the share of distressed homes sold each month. In March it was 71 percent, easily the highest share in metro Washington, DC.

Normal cyclical sales trends are at play – preliminary sales increased 36 percent across the region to 4,460 units in March compared to February’s revised total of 4,925. The advance was not enough though to reach the March 2010 level (when the First Time Buyer’s Credit was in full swing). The largest month-over-month percentage increase occurred in Washington, DC with a whopping 49 percent increase. The smallest was in Loudoun with 21 percent. For the first time this year, the median sales price exceeded the $300,000 bar at $305,000 measuring a healthy 6 percent increase over the February median. Montgomery County had the highest monthly increase last month to reach $331,900 (+11 percent). Washington, DC had the highest percentage increase compared to last March with $378,000 (+7 percent).

According to Loudoun-based real estate consultant Rosemary deButts, “As is often the case, February’s housing statistics were somewhat disappointing. While March is following normal cyclical patterns and had healthy increases, the sales pace and median sales prices seem to look more like 2009 than 2010 — before the First Time Buyer’s Credit artificially stimulated demand.” After nine months of consecutive increases, the average days on market indicator had a slight decline to 80 days in March. The 2011 average is also 80 days; compare that to 62 days in 2010. The low point was 51 days in May 2010. Loudoun had the highest month-over-month decrease to 77 days (-9 percent) while NVAR had the highest month-over-year increase to 71 days (+40 percent).

For the second consecutive month the close price to original list price ratio improved. It was 94 percent in March, 93.2 percent in February 2011 and 94.4 percent last March. Loudoun had the largest increase last month to reach 94.5 percent while Washington, DC had the largest increase compared to March 2010 to reach 93.2 percent. Average close prices advanced for all product types. The average for detached units was $462,242 in March; attached units posted an average of $324,659; and the average close price for condominiums was $275,028. The average close price for detached units in the Washington, DC market was $807,644, the result of 43 properties that sold for over $1,000,000 each last month. The highest sold price was $4,000,000.

The share of distressed sales (short sales and foreclosures) receded below 40 percent in March across the region after a sharp increase in February 2011. All local areas saw decreases in the share of distressed sales except for Prince George’s County and PWAR. The sub-market with the lowest share of distressed sales was Washington, DC at 15 percent. Rosemary deButts further commented, “March was the first month of the spring market. Disregarding 2010, sales were right on target compared to March sales in 2008 and 2009. While I don’t expect 2011 monthly sales to exceed the corresponding month in 2010 until the second half of the year, the market is behaving as expected.”

Loudoun County Housing Market Overview 2011 01

Posted: February 9, 2011 | Author: Rosemary deButts | Filed under: Loudoun County Housing Update | Tags: 2010, 2011, Average Close Price, days on market, eastern loudoun, Foreclosures, Housing, Inventory, leesburg, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Pending Listings, Price Changes, Pricing, Recovery, Sales, Short Sales, Tax Credit, western loudoun | Leave a comment »

Back to the Future: 2009…Again?

February 9, 2011

For immediate release

Contact: Rosemary deButts, Housing Analyst

540/338-2212; rdebutts@1757realestate.com

(Leesburg, VA) – Loudoun County’s January 2011 housing market activity statistics felt more like early 2009. Although the market was expected to slow last month given normal cyclical patterns and the lingering “first time buyer’s credit hangover”, going back to early 2009 levels was not expected. For example, the days on market in January 2011 was 77 days, the highest since May 2009; the median sales price was $317,500, the lowest since April 2009; average prices for detached ($468,914) and attached ($275,209) units were at April or May 2009 levels; and the close price to original list price ratio (92.8 percent) equaled the ratio in May 2009.

Revised 2010 year-end sales totals showed a 10 percent decline compared to 2009. However, the 2010 annual median sales price advanced 7 percent in 2010 compared to 2009.

Preliminary sales in January amounted to 247 units, 40 percent below the month before and a typical result in January. They were, however, 6 percent behind January 2009 levels – although 6 percent was not as large as anticipated as we readjust to a market with no artificial stimulus from the government. Of those 247 sales, 64 percent occurred in Eastern Loudoun; 23 percent were in Leesburg; and Western Loudoun had 13 percent of the total. Throughout the county, 107 sales were either short sales or foreclosures (43 percent). This was the first time the share of distressed sales exceeded 40 percent since February 2010. Most of the increase happened in Eastern Loudoun where the share of distressed sales increased from 30 percent in December to 46 percent in January.

Days on market in Eastern Loudoun was respectable though at 59 days in January. The average jumped to 92 days in Leesburg and to 136 days in Western Loudoun.

The close price to original list price ratio was also strong in Eastern Loudoun in January at 94.9 percent. Compare that to 91.3 percent in Leesburg and 87.8 percent in Western Loudoun.

Loudoun County’s month’s supply of inventory reached 4.7 months in January, the highest level since October 2010. However, it was 4 percent behind the inventory level for January 2010. Available inventory remained low in Eastern Loudoun, only 3.5 months. Inventory in Leesburg was 5.4 months and in Western Loudoun, the level was 9.7 months.

The largest majority (54 percent) of homes sold in the $200,000 – $399,999 price range in January.

Rosemary deButts is a REALTOR® associated with 1757 Real Estate Company in Leesburg, Virginia and she serves as the housing analyst for the Virginia Association of REALTORS®. She is certified by the National Association of REALTORS® as a Short Sales and Foreclosure Resource. With a long career in the housing industry, she is also a Member, Institute of Residential Marketing (MIRM), a prestigious new homes marketing designation issued by the National Association of Home Builders.

Metro DC Housing Market Overview 2011 01

Posted: February 8, 2011 | Author: Rosemary deButts | Filed under: Metro DC Housing Analysis | Tags: 2011, Alexandria, Arlington County, Average Close Price, case-shiller, days on market, dc, Fairfax, Foreclosures, Housing, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Montgomery County, NVAR, Price Changes, Pricing, Prince George's County, Prince William County, Recovery, Sales, Short Sales, Tax Credit, Washington | Leave a comment »

Typical January in the Housing Market: Cold and Slow

February 8, 2010

For immediate release

Contact: Rosemary deButts, REALTOR, MIRM 540/338-2212; rdebutts@1757realestate.com

(Washington, DC) – Revised sales figures indicate that 2010 ended the year 6 percent below the total sold in 2009 in the metro DC area. However, the year-to-date median sales price advanced 5 percent year-over-year. January 2011 started off with flagging statistics compared to 2010 but it’s important to remember that the market was artificially stimulated at this time last year by the First Time Buyer’s Credit.

Total sales in January 2011 failed to reach 3,000 units. Compare January’s 2,963 sales to 4,413 in December and 3,417 in January 2010. All of the associations in the metro area reported a decline in sales compared to last month; the smallest decline was in Washington, DC (-22 percent) and the largest decline was in Loudoun (-40 percent). This is the normal pattern. Compared to January of 2010, all but Washington, DC had sales declines. PWAR had the sharpest drop, 24 percent.

The median sales price in the metro DC area in January 2011, $299,900, was 7 percent behind December and 7 percent behind the median last January. Medians ranged from $166,000 in Prince George’s County to $379,000 in Washington, DC. All of the associations had monthly declines in median sales prices, ranging from -3 percent in Prince George’s to -11 percent in Loudoun. Washington, DC’s median advanced 13 percent from last January but Prince George’s declined 10 percent.

According to Loudoun-based real estate consultant Rosemary deButts, “The metro DC area posted the highest Case-Shiller® Home Price Index in November of the twenty largest markets in the country, for the 18th consecutive month. This is a wonderful place to make real estate investments even if normal cyclical trends sometimes cloud the picture.”

For example, the days on market indicator worsened in January. At 79 days for the entire metro area, it was 12 percent higher on both a month-over-month and a month-over-year basis. The average ranged from 59 days in PWAR to 92 days in Prince George’s County last month. The Prince William area had the lowest average last month but the highest month-over-year increase (vs. 35 days in January 2010, +50 percent). As is typical, all associations had month-over-month increases as winter settled in last month.

The average close price to original list price ratio varied significantly by area, it was 89.8 percent in Prince George’s in January and 95.8 percent in PWAR. The metro area average was 92.9 percent, down from 93.1 percent in December and 93.3 last January.

Detached units accounted for 48 percent of the total sales in January with an average close price of $455,675. This average close price was 10 percent below the average last month but 6 percent higher than the average last January. Attached homes amounted to 34 percent of total sales and again, the average close price ($313,763) fell compared to last month but increased compared to last January (-6 percent and +7 percent respectively). Condo sales represented 18 percent of the market. Average close prices for condos, $254,827, declined 7 percent from December and 5 percent from January 2011.

There was an uptick in the share of distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) in January. All areas had increases compared to last month but they all had decreases from last January. The metro area share was 39.6 percent in January. Compare that to 32.8 percent in December and a significant 45.5 percent last January. The area with the lowest percentage of distressed sales was NVAR (28.6 percent) and the highest was in Prince George’s (66 percent).

Rosemary deButts further commented, “The market actually performed exactly as expected. Activity in January is always slow and it was bound to be slower than last year given that the market is no longer artificially stimulated by the First Time Buyer’s Credit.” ###

Rosemary deButts is a consultant in the home building industry and a REALTOR® associated with 1757 Real Estate Company in Leesburg, Virginia. She serves as the housing analyst for the Virginia Association of REALTORS®. Rosemary is certified by the National Association of REALTORS® as a Short Sales and Foreclosure Resource. With a long career in the housing industry, she is also a Member, Institute of Residential Marketing (MIRM), a prestigious new homes marketing designation issued by the National Association of Home Builders.