Old Dominion Valley Subdivision Analysis
Posted: August 2, 2011 Filed under: Subdivision Analysis | Tags: 2011, Average Close Price, days on market, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Old Dominion Valley, Pending Listings, Price Changes, Seller Subsidies, Short Sales, Villages of Purcellville, western loudoun Leave a comment »Significant Improvement in 2011
In all of 2010, only two homes sold in Purcellville’s Old Dominion Valley neighborhood. So far in 2011, four homes have changed hands. Even more important though is that the year-to-date median sales price in Old Dominion Valley is $428,000, $48,000 and 13 percent higher than the 2010 median of $380,000. Last year, list prices were reduced an average of 3.5 percent ($14,500) before receiving a contract; this year the average price decrease is only $2,275 or .5 percent (an 84 percent drop from last year). Average seller contributions have declined 16 percent this year to $6,750. The average time to sell dropped from 113 days in 2010 to 39 days in 2011. One of the two sales last year was a bank-owned property and the other was a standard (non-distressed) sale.
There were only two active listings in Old Dominion Valley as of August 2nd. The current average list price is very low, only $390,300. That’s because one of the active listings is a bank-owned property offered at $370,700. The remaining standard active listing has an asking price of $409,900. They have been on the market an average of 93 days.
The one pending sale is a short sale that had a contract in just fourteen days at a list price of $419,900.
If now is the time for you to move, I would be honored to help you sell your home and/or answer any questions you may have about the real estate market here in Loudoun County.
Look for my new column in The Purcellville Gazette: “The Dirt on the Market”
Month’s Supply of Inventory by Price Range 2011 06
Posted: July 28, 2011 Filed under: Month's Supply of Inventory | Tags: 2011, eastern loudoun, Inventory, leesburg, Loudoun, Market Trends, western loudoun Leave a comment »Not Enough Inventory for Homes Priced below $800,000
The cluster of columns on the far right of the graph below illustrates the month’s supply of inventory in Loudoun County for all price ranges. A market is generally considered to be in equilibrium (there is enough supply to satisfy demand) when the MSI equals four to five months. As you can see, Loudoun County is undersupplied in the eastern portion of the county and in Leesburg. However, there is enough supply in western Loudoun by virtue of its 6.4 month’s of supply.
If we break this down by price range, we can see that all three areas are undersupplied at list prices below $200,000. Further, eastern Loudoun and Leesburg are undersupplied at all prices below $800,000. Western Loudoun has a healthy supply of inventory for homes priced $200,000 to $599,999 but becomes oversupplied with homes priced over $600,000 and it is severely oversupplied with homes priced in excess of $1,000,000 (only four homes priced $1,000,000 or more have sold in all of Loudoun County this year, all in Waterford).
As of July 7th, there were 20 active listings in eastern Loudoun, 69 in Leesburg and 77 in western Loudoun priced over $1,000,000. Compare that to the 50 listings for homes priced below $200,000 (21 in eastern Loudoun, 23 in Leesburg and 6 in western Loudoun) at the same time.
This analysis confirms that Loudoun County continues to suffer from a shortage of supply that is severely constraining existing home sales.
The month’s supply of inventory is calculated by dividing the active listings in a particular area (snapshot of activity) by the sales in that area over the previous month. The definition of active listings excludes rentals and pending sales (those with contingencies or contracts) in this analysis. Close prices are used for the sales and current list prices are used for the active listings to group them by price range.
YTD Distressed Sales 2011 07 26
Posted: July 27, 2011 Filed under: Foreclosures, Short Sales | Tags: 2011, eastern loudoun, Foreclosures, leesburg, Market Trends, Short Sales, western loudoun Leave a comment »
Share of Distressed Sales on the Decline in Loudoun County
The graph below illustrates the aggregate number of short sales and foreclosures (bank-owned properties) along with the percentage of total existing home sales that were distressed in Loudoun County this year. Totals are also presented for the three areas within Loudoun County. So far this year, less than 30 percent of the total existing home sales in Loudoun County were distressed. By contrast, at the end of June in 2010, the share of distressed sales was 34 percent. Unlike other counties in the metropolitan Washington, DC market, short sales outpace foreclosures; 68 percent of all distressed sales so far this year were short sales and the remaining 32 percent were bank-owned properties.
Short Sales
Short sales in Loudoun accounted for 18 percent of total sales this year. In Eastern Loudoun, 20 percent of 2011 sales were short sales; the same figure in Leesburg was 17 percent and it was 13 percent in Western Loudoun.
Foreclosures (Bank-Owned Properties)
There is a different dynamic for bank-owned properties. So far this year, 11 percent of total sales were foreclosures in Loudoun County and in the subsets of Eastern Loudoun and Leesburg as well. The share in Western Loudoun was 12 percent with the total number of short sales about equal to the total number of foreclosures there.
Subdivision Analysis: Villages of Purcellville 2011 07 25
Posted: July 25, 2011 Filed under: Villages of Purcellville | Tags: 2011, Average Close Price, days on market, Listings, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Pending Listings, Price Changes, Pricing, Sales, Seller Subsidies, Short Sales, Villages of Purcellville, western loudoun Leave a comment »
Prices Vary Widely
Six homes have now sold this year in the Villages of Purcellville at close prices ranging from $330,000 to $412,000. One of the two sales so far in July had a close price that was $5,000 higher than its asking price and the other was the second home to sell this year at a price in excess of $400,000. The median was unchanged from my June analysis ($339,000) and it is 13.5 percent lower than the 2010 median. However, the average days on market indicator continued its stark improvement; it declined to 55 days from 68 in June and is 44 percent lower than the 2010 average. The close price to original list price ratio also improved; it increased from 94.6 percent in June and from 95.2 percent in 2010 to 96 percent in July. The average seller subsidy declined 8 percent from June but is 19 percent higher than the average in 2010. One third of the 2011 sales in the Villages have been short sales while none of the nine sales in 2010 were distressed.
There is only one active listing in the neighborhood at this point. A standard sale, it has been on the market for 145 days at an asking price of $399,900. Two of the three homes with pending contracts are short sales; that explains the unusually low list prices of $259,900 and $295,000. All three were on the market an average of 142 days before receiving a contract.
With the extremely low list prices for the two pending short sale listings, the 2011 median and average close prices in the Villages will decline. The good news though is that there are no active short sale listings in the neighborhood at this point suggesting prices will rebound in the Fall.
If now is the time for you to move, I would be honored to help you sell your home and/or answer any questions you may have about the real estate market here in Loudoun County.
Look for my new column in The Purcellville Gazette: “The Dirt on the Market”
Western Loudoun County Analysis: 2011 06
Posted: July 11, 2011 Filed under: Western Loudoun County Analysis | Tags: 2011, Average Close Price, days on market, Foreclosures, Inventory, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Price Changes, Pricing, Sales, Short Sales, western loudoun Leave a comment »
Western Loudoun Sales and Prices Strong in June
According to the Metropolitan Regional Information Service (MRIS) and as of June 30, 2011, the year-to-date preliminary existing home sales (257 units) in the Western Loudoun area (consisting of Middleburg, Purcellville, Round Hill, Hamilton, Lovettsville and Waterford) exceeded the year-to-date total at this time in 2010 by four units and by 43 units over 2009. The highest monthly sales are typically recorded in June in this highly cyclical industry and June did not disappoint in Western Loudoun. 59 homes closed during June in Western Loudoun, up from a revised 46 in May and 57 during June 2010. This was the highest monthly total since at least January 2009. For the sake of comparison, the year-to-date sales totals in all of Loudoun County are still the lowest in at least six years.
The table below lists June sales by area. Sales in Round Hill outpaced Purcellville for the first time since March of 2009, doubling the number of sales there during May. Lovettsville posted a huge monthly gain, jumping from 3 sales in May to 10 in June.
As shown above, the June median sales price in the Western Loudoun area increased 1 percent to $440,000 from $435,000 in May. At this time last year, the median was only $415,000 (+6 percent). June’s increase boosted the year-to-date median to $415,000, reflecting the highest annual median since 2007. (The year-to-date median sales price for all of Loudoun County is also the highest in four years at $375,500.) Four homes closed in Waterford in June that ranged in price from $749,000 to $1,065,000 resulting in a monthly median sales price of $935,000 and a year-to-date median of$775,000 – clearly the area leader so far this year.
Year-to-date, 37 percent of the sales in Western Loudoun were priced between $200,000 and $399,000, matching the share in this price range during 2010. However, the percentage of homes sold at prices between $600,000 and $799,999 was 16 percent in 2011; it was only 13 percent in 2010.
Typically, homes in Western Loudoun are on the market longer than those in other areas of the county. For example, the average days on market in Western Loudoun during June 2011 amounted to 115 days, down from a revised 163 days in May and 107 days last June. By contrast, homes sold in only 41 days on average in Eastern Loudoun during June while the average was just 57 days in Leesburg. Since January 2010, the lowest average in Western Loudoun occurred last July (60 days) and the highest was in January 2010 (235 days). While 42 percent of the June closings were under contract within 30 days of listing, 10 percent took a year or longer to sell.
Like sales totals, the days on market indicator varies significantly by individual market. Middleburg and Purcellville tied for the lowest average with 51 days while the June average in Waterford was 248 days.
The average close price to original list price ratio may reflect two things: sellers’ ability to accurately price their homes to match market conditions and/or their willingness to negotiate price. The ratio increased significantly in June to 94.4 percent from a revised 86.6 percent in May. Western Loudoun normally has the lowest close price to original list price ratio; it was 97.0 percent in Eastern Loudoun and 96.8 percent in Leesburg last month. Here in the west, the lowest ratio occurred in Waterford (86.9 percent) and the highest was found in Hamilton (98.4 percent).
In June, four townhouses sold in Western Loudoun at an average price of $235,000. The average price for the 55 detached homes sold last month was $511,980. Condominiums are not a factor in Western Loudoun.
The year-to-date share of short sales and foreclosures (24.5 percent distressed sales) in 2011 is the product of two months below 19 percent (April and June). Compare that to this time last year when theyear-to-date share of distressed sales was 34.1 percent. Middleburg and Waterford have had only one distressed sale each so far this year explaining their low shares while the percentage exceeds 22 percent in the other local areas.
The month’s supply of inventory is also considerably higher in Western Loudoun than elsewhere in the county. As of July 7th, there was a 6.4 month’s supply of available inventory in Western Loudoun. While it is high, there was improvement; the month’s supply of inventory exceeded 8 months from January through May. Compare 6.4 months of supply to 2.1 months in Eastern Loudoun during June and 2.9 months in Leesburg. Middleburg had the highest available inventory at 21 months and Round Hill had the lowest at 3.1 months in June.
Spotlight on Purcellville
Purcellville is having a good year compared to its recent history. It typically has the highest sales volume in Western Loudoun and has posted 101 sales so far this year. By comparison, at the end of June 2010, Purcellville had only 95 total sales and at the same time in 2009, sales only totaled 82 units. Close prices in Purcellville ranged from $139,500 to $2,250,000 this year. Of the 101 2011 sales, 46 percent were priced between $400,000 and $599,000 and 30 percent were priced between $200,000 and $399,999. Four homes sold at prices exceeding $1,000,000 (three more than in Middleburg!). The median sales price in 2011 was $425,000 as of June 30th, +6 percent over the 2010 annual median. The June median was $458,000, 4 percent higher than the May median and 12 percent higher than the June 2010 median. Finally, about 28 percent of the sold homes this year were distressed.
Western Loudoun is having a banner year compared to Loudoun County as a whole. 2011 Sales have not suffered here in comparison to 2010 sales as they were expected to do in the absence of the First Time Buyer’s Credit this year. If historical trends hold though, sales will decline from 59 units beginning in July through the rest of the year. However, I predict we will end the year ahead of 2010 totals. Additionally, median sales prices have increased 7.5 percent since January, clearly indicating a healthy market.
Rosemary deButts, Realtor, has lived in Purcellville for almost twenty years and is associated with Atoka Properties, currently located near Bloom. She has the Short Sales and Foreclosure Resource certification and is a Member,
Institute of Residential Marketing. Rosemary earned her degree in Economics from Randolph-Macon Woman’s College and her MBA from Old Dominion University. She and her husband, Jimmy (a lifelong resident of Western Loudoun), have seven children, six of whom are Loudoun Valley High School alums. For more information on the Western Loudoun housing market and guidance in buying or selling a home, contact Rosemary today (rosemary@atokaproperties.com; 540-454-6792; www.housinganalyst.net).
Loudoun County Housing Update: 2011 06
Posted: July 8, 2011 Filed under: Loudoun County Housing Update | Tags: 2011, Average Close Price, days on market, eastern loudoun, Foreclosures, Inventory, leesburg, Listings, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Pending Listings, Price Changes, Pricing, Sales, Seller Subsidies, Short Sales, western loudoun Leave a comment »
Existing Homes Sales Strong in June
The existing home market in Loudoun County had a good June. While unable to beat total sales in June 2010, the 553 preliminary sales represented a 31 percent gain over May and outpaced both June 2009 and June 2008. The table below illustrates the total sales activity and median sales prices from January to June in the last six years. Even though June had a strong sales rally, the year-to-date totals are still the lowest in at least six years. By contrast, the 2011 median sales price in Loudoun County continues to advance, reaching the highest point since 2007.
Of the 2,287 units sold in 2011 to date, the largest share was priced between $200,000 and $399,999 (44 percent). During May and June however, nineteen homes priced above $1,000,000 were sold (10 in May and 9 in June) – this is unprecedented in recent history. High priced homes contributed to the $410,000 June median sales price representing a 5 percent increase over May 2011 and June 2010 as well. Median prices advanced throughout the county. Eastern Loudoun posted a median of $388,450 in June, up from the revised May median of $360,549. In Leesburg, the median increased from $410,000 in May to $420,000 in June. Western Loudoun, which typically posts the highest median sales price, was $440,000 in June, up from $435,000 in May.
As shown on the following graph and for the fifth consecutive month, the share of distressed sales (short sales and bank owned properties) declined in Loudoun County during June to reach the lowest point since the multiple listing service began requiring these designations in early 2009. There were 78 short sales and 35 foreclosures among the preliminary 553 sales in June (20 percent). Compare that to 28 percent in May and 30 percent last June. In both Leesburg and Western Loudoun the share fell below 20 percent and in the historically troubled Eastern Loudoun portion of the county, the share has declined steadily over the last five consecutive months from 44.8 percent in January to 21.3 percent in June.
The average days on market indicator continued to tumble in June reaching the lowest point (53 days) since September 2010. With a dearth of active listings (almost 200 fewer than at this time last year), the month’s supply of available inventory was only 2.8 months in June. The market is onsidered to be in equilibrium (enough supply to meet demand) when the available inventory is four to five months. The June inventory level indicates that Loudoun is currently significantly undersupplied. This is especially evident in Eastern Loudoun with only a 2.1 month’s supply. Leesburg is dangerously low as well at 2.9 months. Western Loudoun posted its lowest inventory level this year in June at 6.4 months.
Representing 59 percent of total sales in June, 328 detached homes sold at an average close price of $543,936. Townhomes accounted for 36 percent of all sales with an average close price of $314,828 and the average close price was $188,661 for the 28 condominiums (5 percent) that sold last month.
Purcellville based real estate consultant Rosemary deButts summarized, ”Total sales were unexpectedly robust in June but were still not strong enough to make up for the slow sales plaguing Loudoun during most of 2011. However, Loudoun’s supply deficiency and declining distressed sales have contributed to an ever-improving median sales price.”###
FOR MORE DETAIL, SEE Loudoun County Housing Analysis 2011 06
Subdivision Analysis: Hirst Farm 2011 07 05
Posted: July 6, 2011 Filed under: Subdivision Analysis | Tags: 2011, Average Close Price, days on market, Hirst Farm, Listings, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Pending Listings, Price Changes, Pricing, Sales, Seller Subsidies, Short Sales, western loudoun Leave a comment »
As of May 31st, six homes have sold in Hirst Farm so far this year. Two of the six were short sales and two were bank owned properties (67 percent distressed). The annualized pace suggests roughly 14 homes will sell this year, 3 fewer than last year. While still below the 2010 median, the year-to-date median sales price in Hirst Farm was up from $399,000 in April to $409,000 at the end of May (+3 percent). The average seller subsidy is on the rise though in this community, up 44 percent from the average in 2010 and it has taken 20 percent longer to sell Hirst Farm homes this year compared to last.
As of July 6, 2011, there was only one pending sale in Hirst Farm and no active listings. The pending sale is a short sale at a current list price of $369,900. The home was on the market 38 days.
Hirst Farm is clearly a victim of when it was built and the ensuing meltdown of the real estate market. I specialize in short sales and have a system to make the process as painless and quick as possible. There is no competition at the moment…a good time to list and sell your home. Please call me, I would be honored to help you sell your home and/or answer any questions you may have about the real estate market here in Loudoun County.
Don’t miss my monthly column on western Loudoun housing trends, “The Dirt on the Market”, in The Purcellville Gazette.
Subdivision Analysis: Villages of Purcellville 2011 05
Posted: June 13, 2011 Filed under: Subdivision Analysis | Tags: 2011, Average Close Price, days on market, Foreclosures, Listings, Loudoun, Market Trends, Pending Listings, Price Changes, Pricing, Sales, Short Sales, Villages of Purcellville, western loudoun Leave a comment »As of June 13, 2011, there were three active listings in the Villages of Purcellville community. One is a short sale that has been on the market for nearly a year; the price was reduced from $305,000 to $295,000 in late May. The average list price for the other two homes on the market is $416,900 and they’ve been active for an average of 68 days. Both of the pending sales are short sales. The average list price is $292,450 and they were on the market an average of 54 days.
Four homes have closed so far this year – one in January, one in February and two in April. One was a short sale with a close price of $390,000. Two non-distressed homes sold for $339,000 and one sold for $409,000. Therefore, the median sales price is $339,000 and the average close price is $369,250. These homes were active for an average of 68 days.
If now is the time for you to move, I would be honored to help you sell your home and/or answer any questions you may have about the real estate market here in Loudoun County.
Plus, I’ve moved to Atoka Properties in the Bloom Shopping Center. Please take a moment to visit me while you’re running errands here in town. Let’s chat about your house.
Look for my new column in The Purcellville Gazette: “The Dirt on the Market”
Western Loudoun County Analysis 2011 05
Posted: June 8, 2011 Filed under: Western Loudoun County Analysis | Tags: 2011, Average Close Price, days on market, Foreclosures, Housing, Inventory, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Price Changes, Pricing, Sales, Short Sales, western loudoun Leave a comment »Western Loudoun Median Prices Highest Since 2007
The May median sales price in the Western Loudoun area (consisting of Middleburg, Purcellville, Round Hill, Hamilton, Lovettsville and Waterford) increased 5 percent to $435,000 from the revised $414,000 in April. At this time last year, the median was only $346,916 (+25 percent). Plus, at $414,000, the year-to-date median reflects the highest annual median since 2007.
Preliminary results indicate that a total of 44 homes were sold in Western Loudoun during May. That represented a 2 increase over the revised April total of 43 units and a 17 percent decline from last May when the housing market was artificially stimulated by the First Time Buyer’s Credit program. The graph below illustrates that sales are following normal cyclical patterns, albeit with slight variations from month to month in 2011. It also shows that May 2011 sales exceeded those in May 2009 but couldn’t reach the May 2010 level. In is interesting that the January to May total sales in 2011 (196 units) outpaced the same period in 2009 (164 units, +20 percent) and almost caught 2010 (198 units, -1 percent) regardless of the Credit. This is unprecedented in Loudoun County and the metropolitan Washington, DC markets; Loudoun County posted its lowest year-to-date total sales in the first five months of 2011 compared to the same period in every year since 2006 (at least).
Western Loudoun Existing Home
Sales: 2009, 2010 and YTD 2011
The following tables summarize sales and median sales price activity in Western Loudoun during May 2011 compared to the previous month (MOM) as well as the corresponding month in 2010 (MOY) by area. Sales in Purcellville again topped the list this month with 21 units while there were only three sales in Lovettsville and Waterford. The median sales prices can vary widely by area and by month; the median in Waterford was $775,000 in May but only $252,500 in April. Compare that to the median in Middleburg of $320,000, up from $305,000 in April.
Year-to-date, 43 percent of the sales in Western Loudoun were priced between $200,000 and $399,000. In all of 2010, 37 percent of sales were similarly priced.
As is typical, homes in Western Loudoun are on the market longer than those in other areas of the county. For example, the average days on market in Western Loudoun during May 2011 amounted to 156 days, up from a revised 124 days in April and only 86 days last May. For the sake of comparison, in Eastern Loudoun, homes sold in 39 days on average in May while the average was 61 days in Leesburg. Since January 2010, the lowest average in Western Loudoun occurred last July (60 days). Like sales totals, the days on market indicator varies significantly by individual market. In Hamilton, the average was 74 days in May but it was 508 days in Waterford.
The average close price to original list price ratio may reflect two things: sellers’ ability to accurately price their homes to match market conditions and/or their willingness to negotiate price. The ratio declined in May to 91.4 percent from 93.5 percent in April. Western Loudoun normally has the lowest close price to original list price ratio; it was 96.8 percent in Eastern Loudoun and 95.5 percent in Leesburg last month. Here in the west, the lowest ratio occurred in Waterford (82 percent) and the highest was found in Hamilton (98 percent).
In May, four townhouses sold at an average price of $254,975 down from $336,667 in April. The average price for the 40 detached homes sold last month was $509,126, also down from $561,540. Condominiums are not a factor in Western Loudoun.
The share of short sales and foreclosures (21 percent distressed sales) in May was an uptick from April (18 percent). However, this time last year, the share of distressed sales was 35.8 percent. There have been no distressed sales in Middleburg so far this year and only one short sale in Waterford. Compare that to the 35 percent of year-to-date sales in Lovettsville that were distressed (ten of twenty-eight).
The month’s supply of inventory is also considerably higher in Western Loudoun than elsewhere in the county. As of June 7th, there was a 9 month’s supply of available inventory in Western Loudoun. Compare that to 2.8 months in Eastern Loudoun and 3.7 months in Leesburg. Lovettsville had the highest available inventory at 21 months and Purcellville had the lowest at 6.2 months.
Spotlight on Middleburg
There is an interesting phenomenon brewing in Western Loudoun: none of the 16 year-to-date sales in Middleburg have exceeded the $1,000,000 close price barrier. In fact, only one Middleburg property has sold at a price between $800,000 and $999,999 so far this year. The
median sold price was only $320,000 in May and it’s only $530,000 for the entire year. What else is happening in Middleburg? The average days on market in May was 473 days (2 of the 4 sales exceeded 2 years, one was on the market almost one year and 1 sold in 45 days). And, based on active listings, there is a 17 month supply of available inventory in Middleburg.
Even with Middleburg’s strange results, Western Loudoun’s housing market is doing better than the county as a whole and even the larger region. As far as sales volume is concerned, 2011 is holding its ground compared to prior years. The median sales price saw a significant increase in May, reaching the highest point since August 2010 and the overall downward trend in the share of distressed homes in recent months is also welcome news indeed.
Rosemary deButts, Realtor, has lived in Purcellville for almost twenty years and is associated with Atoka Properties, currently located near Bloom. She has the Short Sales and Foreclosure Resource certification and is a Member, Institute of Residential Marketing. Rosemary earned her degree in Economics from Randolph-Macon Woman’s College and her MBA from Old Dominion University. She and her husband, Jimmy (a lifelong resident of Western Loudoun), have seven children, six of whom are Loudoun Valley High School alums. For more
information on the Western Loudoun housing market and guidance in buying or selling a home, contact Rosemary today (rosemary@atokaproperties.com; 540-454-6792; www.housinganalyst.net).
Subdivision Analysis: Locust Grove 2011 05
Posted: June 8, 2011 Filed under: Subdivision Analysis | Tags: 2011, Average Close Price, Foreclosures, Listings, Locust Grove, Loudoun, Market Trends, Median Sales Price, Sales, Seller Subsidies, Short Sales, western loudoun Leave a comment »
